NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	97		Excitement	5.8 [612]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +7.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	93		Comeback	1.2 [233]		LVP	Sam Cassell (MIL): -13.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.00	-0.03	16	63%	0.10	3	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02
Travis Best	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	16	56%	0.06	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Brian Grant	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Caron Butler	0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.01	-0.03	15	59%	0.12	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.02
Malik Allen	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	15	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
LaPhonso Ellis	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Vladimir Stepania	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	9	45%	-0.01	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Eddie House	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	6	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	5	69%	0.04	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,0	-0.00	0.10	-0.06	0.05	15	71%	0.11	2	-0.11	4	75%	-0.01
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	7	56%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Thomas	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	11	45%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	4	30%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	18	36%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	8	32%	-0.11	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Sam Cassell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	15	38%	-0.06	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	2.5	29.3	16.4	22.3	1.8	33.2	126.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +51.0%

MIL -1.9%

MIA +3.6%

MIL -2.9%

MIA +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	15.9	15.6	15.5	105.4	102.2	101.6
season	16.3	15.4		94.6	106.3
opponent	15.8	15.9		106.5	100.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.2	16.6	15.6	17.2	15.9
MIL	15.8	14.7	17.1	14.8	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Travis Best	75	75	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.33	12	-8	20	15.7	16.7	-1.03	16.2	12.7	3.46
Malik Allen	83	83	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.30	9	-5	14	15.2	21.7	-6.43	15.7	14.9	0.80
Eddie Jones	82	80	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.38	6	-2	8	15.6	18.2	-2.61	15.8	14.3	1.51
Caron Butler	80	79	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.28	9	-5	14	15.0	21.4	-6.38	15.3	17.5	-2.18
Vladimir Stepania	50	50	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.14	5	-1	6	16.7	14.9	1.86	16.4	14.6	1.81
Brian Grant	46	45	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.36	-3	7	-10	15.4	16.3	-0.96	15.1	16.1	-0.98
Eddie House	22	23	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.10	-7	11	-18	20.0	14.6	5.37	16.0	15.5	0.47
LaPhonso Ellis	5	4	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.03	-3	7	-10	22.2	15.5	6.69	9.5	15.9	-6.39
Mike James	17	16	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.05	-8	12	-20	16.7	15.7	1.03	12.7	16.2	-3.46

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Caffey	22	22	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.08	4	-8	12	15.7	15.6	0.16	18.5	15.1	3.40
Ervin Johnson	16	14	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.00	-1	-3	2	16.1	15.5	0.56	19.5	15.2	4.28
Kevin Ollie	44	42	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.36	9	-13	22	14.2	16.9	-2.67	17.3	14.6	2.69
Michael Redd	46	47	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	-2	0	15.4	15.8	-0.43	16.8	14.9	1.92
Dan Gadzuric	28	28	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.01	-8	4	-12	16.8	15.1	1.71	15.0	16.2	-1.20
Tim Thomas	44	46	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.21	-1	-3	2	16.3	14.9	1.43	16.1	15.6	0.52
Toni Kukoc	60	62	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.38	3	-7	10	15.0	16.8	-1.82	16.3	15.0	1.29
Ray Allen	66	68	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.25	-5	1	-6	15.4	16.2	-0.88	14.9	18.5	-3.62
Sam Cassell	60	62	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.27	-9	5	-14	16.4	14.1	2.24	14.7	18.3	-3.61
Anthony Mason	69	69	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.30	-10	6	-16	15.6	15.5	0.14	14.6	19.8	-5.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.24,0.17,0.18,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.05,0.06,0.14,0.29,0.17,0.07,0.01,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 93, OKC 90	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.1,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	94.1%
DAL 80, DEN 75	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.02,0,0	93.5%
MEM 80, UTA 72	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.44,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.23,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.1,0.25,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.02,0.09,0	93.5%