NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	101		Excitement	6.0 [580]		MVP	Rashard Lewis (SEA): +42.8%
Washington Wizards	95		Comeback	2.2 [379]		LVP	Jerry Stackhouse (WAS): -37.0%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0.43	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.43,0.43	0.28	0.14	-0.00	19	90%	0.46	2	-0.04	3	67%	0.00
Brent Barry	0.17	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17	0.08	0.09	-0.01	12	71%	0.21	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Predrag Drobnjak	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1	0.03	0.07	-0.00	10	60%	0.12	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Calvin Booth	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ansu Sesay	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.10	0.01	-0.04	11	38%	-0.01	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Reggie Evans	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	1	25%	-0.04	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Vladimir Radmanovic	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	5	46%	-0.03	3	-0.06	3	67%	-0.00
Gary Payton	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.04	-0.02	18	36%	-0.09	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.17	0.17	0.02	0.15	-0.00	22	59%	0.24	4	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Bryon Russell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	7	71%	0.09	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.01	8	67%	0.06	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	2	60%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	6	36%	-0.04	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.05	-0.10	0.01	14	63%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.05
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.3,-0.37,-0.37	-0.37	-0.15	-0.22	0.00	19	32%	-0.32	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.14

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.4	2.3	24.5	15.6	24.1	1.8	34.4	123.2
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +42.8%

SEA +15.8%

WAS -5.4%

WAS -0.4%

WAS -2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	WAS	NBA	SEA	WAS	NBA
this game	16.2	15.8	15.5	112.2	105.6	101.6
season	16.5	16.5		101.7	100.9
opponent	15.5	15.6		101.9	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	15.9	14.5	15.9	18.8	16.2
WAS	15.4	18.3	14.7	14.8	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashard Lewis	81	81	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.31	13	-7	20	16.2	16.0	0.25	16.1	13.2	2.84
Gary Payton	79	78	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.28	10	-4	14	16.6	13.5	3.15	16.1	13.7	2.34
Predrag Drobnjak	46	47	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.17	9	-3	12	17.0	15.4	1.68	15.2	16.4	-1.23
Desmond Mason	59	59	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.23	5	1	4	16.2	16.4	-0.20	15.8	15.7	0.15
Brent Barry	79	80	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.31	0	6	-6	15.8	19.0	-3.16	15.9	15.0	0.88
Vladimir Radmanovic	57	57	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.07	3	3	0	16.3	16.2	0.11	16.4	14.7	1.66
Reggie Evans	16	16	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.12	-3	9	-12	17.7	15.9	1.78	16.6	15.6	0.95
Calvin Booth	10	9	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.00	-1	7	-8	13.9	16.5	-2.61	13.6	16.0	-2.47
Ansu Sesay	23	23	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.15	-6	12	-18	14.6	16.8	-2.23	13.3	16.6	-3.38

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyronn Lue	29	28	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.13	5	-11	16	15.8	15.8	-0.03	15.5	16.6	-1.10
Christian Laettner	10	9	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.07	-6	0	-6	23.8	14.8	9.02	13.9	16.5	-2.59
Michael Jordan	59	59	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.34	8	-14	22	14.4	18.5	-4.08	16.5	15.6	0.93
Brendan Haywood	21	20	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.05	-9	3	-12	16.5	15.6	0.91	13.6	17.0	-3.31
Bryon Russell	74	76	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.23	-2	-4	2	15.4	17.4	-1.94	16.4	15.3	1.11
Kwame Brown	37	38	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.12	-9	3	-12	16.9	15.0	1.85	16.5	16.0	0.44
Larry Hughes	80	81	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.28	-5	-1	-4	15.0	22.2	-7.22	16.1	17.4	-1.36
Jared Jeffries	59	58	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.34	-3	-3	0	16.0	15.4	0.65	17.1	14.6	2.53
Jerry Stackhouse	81	81	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.31	-9	3	-12	16.1	13.0	3.09	16.4	15.0	1.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.36,0.33,0.24,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.18,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.14,0.36,0.23,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 112, IND 110	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.54,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.23,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.11,0.16,0.05,0	93.4%
PHI 107, IND 97	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.49,0.59,0.55,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.15,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.23,0.1,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	91.9%
NJN 93, POR 86	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.68,0.78,0.77,0.75,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.32,0.2,0.27,0.22,0.14,0.09,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.14,0.24,0.28,0.24,0.36,0.33,0.17,0	91.9%