NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	112		Excitement	5.8 [625]		MVP	Ersan Ilyasova (MIL): +17.5%
Indiana Pacers	110		Comeback	1.9 [583]		LVP	T.J. Ford (IND): -5.3%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.15	0.03	0.00	9	85%	0.18	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
John Salmons	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.14	0.07	0.06	-0.01	12	59%	0.17	1	-0.03	10	90%	0.05
Brandon Jennings	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06	-0.03	0.07	-0.02	18	45%	0.12	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Andrew Bogut	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.01	0.02	9	79%	0.12	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Charlie Bell	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	10	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	11	55%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	-0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.01	9	45%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Royal Ivey	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.01	0.01	7	86%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	71%	0.10	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Danny Granger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.01	0.02	15	55%	0.07	1	-0.02	8	87%	-0.02
Solomon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.03	12	57%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.04
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.03	0.02	7	68%	0.10	4	-0.09	8	62%	-0.02
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.01	6	39%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Brandon Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	4	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05	-0.05	0.03	-0.05	0.04	10	53%	-0.00	2	-0.05	12	92%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	2.4	30.3	15.5	27.4	1.8	35.2	139.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +38.5%

MIL +0.3%

MIL +17.2%

IND -5.1%

IND -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	IND	NBA	MIL	IND	NBA
this game	16.2	14.3	15.3	117.9	117.0	106.0
season	15.5	14.2		103.3	102.2
opponent	15.1	15.5		105.3	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.4	15.0	16.5	18.0	16.2
IND	13.4	14.4	16.2	13.3	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Jennings	71	72	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.26	12	-10	22	16.6	15.0	1.56	14.7	13.1	1.52
Carlos Delfino	64	63	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.35	4	-2	6	16.1	16.3	-0.18	14.7	13.5	1.12
John Salmons	68	69	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.43	-1	3	-4	16.3	15.9	0.44	14.1	14.8	-0.68
Ersan Ilyasova	42	39	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.14	8	-6	14	16.4	16.0	0.38	14.9	13.9	1.07
Andrew Bogut	49	51	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.23	1	1	0	15.8	16.6	-0.81	14.0	14.7	-0.65
Luke Ridnour	55	55	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.40	-7	9	-16	16.3	16.0	0.25	13.6	15.3	-1.77
Jerry Stackhouse	50	47	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.15	0	2	-2	15.9	16.5	-0.57	14.4	14.2	0.26
Luc Mbah a Moute	47	46	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.22	-4	6	-10	16.4	16.0	0.42	14.3	14.3	0.06
Royal Ivey	11	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	1	0	16.6	16.1	0.53	13.0	14.5	-1.47
Charlie Bell	18	17	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.05	-4	6	-10	14.5	16.6	-2.06	14.4	14.3	0.14

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Solomon Jones	7	7	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.03	-1	-1	0	17.7	14.0	3.69	16.9	16.1	0.74
Luther Head	34	36	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.05	-4	2	-6	14.7	14.0	0.69	14.2	17.4	-3.13
Troy Murphy	67	66	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.42	8	-10	18	13.5	16.2	-2.70	16.5	15.4	1.14
Brandon Rush	36	37	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.37	6	-8	14	14.2	14.3	-0.12	18.4	14.8	3.58
Roy Hibbert	20	21	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.01	-7	5	-12	15.7	13.9	1.78	15.6	16.3	-0.77
T.J. Ford	78	77	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.53	10	-12	22	13.9	16.1	-2.13	16.8	13.6	3.16
Mike Dunleavy	48	47	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.04	-7	5	-12	14.5	14.1	0.37	15.1	17.2	-2.19
Danny Granger	83	83	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.47	7	-9	16	13.9	17.2	-3.27	16.4	14.7	1.62
Dahntay Jones	21	24	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.05	-14	12	-26	15.5	13.9	1.58	13.6	17.0	-3.40
Earl Watson	76	77	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.35	-8	6	-14	14.5	13.6	0.92	16.5	14.8	1.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.54,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.23,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.11,0.16,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 89, ORL 78	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0,0,0	93.9%
DET 94, GSW 79	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.56,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.18,0.12,0.16,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.8%
WAS 97, CHA 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.49,0.43,0.3,0.3,0.37,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.16,0.21,0.14,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.03,0,0	93.8%