NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	106		Excitement	5.5 [696]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +23.7%
Toronto Raptors	92		Comeback	1.1 [1096]		LVP	Steve Nash (DAL): -17.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.15	0.07	-0.01	15	76%	0.25	1	-0.01	7	86%	0.03
Walt Williams	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.09	0.07	-0.02	7	80%	0.18	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.03	6	87%	0.10	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Michael Finley	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.03	0.02	17	63%	0.12	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.05	-0.02	9	44%	0.06	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	6	62%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Raja Bell	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	-0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.16	-0.03	-0.02	13	36%	-0.04	5	-0.13	2	100%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.02	0.06	-0.03	17	47%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	11	58%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.02	10	67%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Voshon Lenard	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	16	62%	0.15	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Michael Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Jefferies	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	0.00	-0.03	19	40%	-0.04	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Mamadou N'diaye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	6	36%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Jelani McCoy	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.3	24.4	16.4	25.6	2.4	31.5	124.8
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +31.7%

DAL +18.0%

TOR -5.3%

DAL +4.6%

DAL +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	TOR	NBA	DAL	TOR	NBA
this game	16.0	15.5	15.5	116.5	100.0	101.6
season	15.1	16.2		108.6	98.8
opponent	15.3	15.3		105.1	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.4	16.5	15.7	18.8	16.0
TOR	15.4	15.5	14.9	16.2	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Finley	77	79	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.00	22	-8	30	16.2	14.9	1.27	16.3	10.2	6.11
Eduardo Najera	43	44	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.04	20	-6	26	17.5	14.7	2.82	15.7	15.2	0.48
Dirk Nowitzki	78	78	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.01	20	-6	26	15.7	18.1	-2.42	15.7	14.0	1.74
Shawn Bradley	61	61	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.11	12	2	10	16.1	15.7	0.45	15.7	15.0	0.77
Adrian Griffin	29	30	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.04	10	4	6	13.7	17.1	-3.34	16.5	15.0	1.52
Nick Van Exel	43	43	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.13	4	10	-6	15.7	16.3	-0.62	15.0	15.9	-0.81
Steve Nash	59	60	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.05	3	11	-8	16.0	15.9	0.10	15.5	15.4	0.06
Avery Johnson	17	17	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	17	-20	16.8	15.8	1.01	14.7	15.7	-0.95
Raja Bell	19	18	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.10	-9	23	-32	15.8	16.0	-0.20	12.4	16.2	-3.84
Walt Williams	29	30	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.10	-9	23	-32	16.2	15.9	0.30	13.5	16.5	-2.98

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Voshon Lenard	69	70	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.04	3	-17	20	15.5	15.4	0.06	16.3	15.1	1.18
Chris Jefferies	11	12	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.10	3	-17	20	11.5	16.0	-4.47	14.1	16.3	-2.21
Jelani McCoy	17	18	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.01	-3	-11	8	16.6	15.2	1.43	12.3	16.9	-4.64
Michael Bradley	37	35	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.24	0	-14	14	14.5	16.1	-1.66	16.0	16.0	-0.00
Mamadou N'diaye	50	49	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.06	-8	-6	-2	16.0	14.9	1.14	17.6	14.1	3.45
Lindsey Hunter	61	60	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-8	-6	-2	15.0	16.5	-1.57	17.0	14.0	3.08
Jerome Williams	73	72	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.12	-17	3	-20	15.7	14.7	0.93	16.2	15.1	1.20
Morris Peterson	78	78	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.12	-10	-4	-6	15.3	16.4	-1.04	15.2	20.8	-5.65
Alvin Williams	64	61	-0.83	0.33	-1.15	0.05	-30	16	-46	16.5	13.2	3.25	15.6	16.8	-1.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.23,0.27,0.39,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.41,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.09,0.09,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 88, MIL 77	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.22,0.29,0.28,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	94.4%
BOS 100, MIL 91	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.41,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.52,0.38,0.43,0.29,0.17,0.19,0.08,0.03,0.01,0.07,0,0.01,0,0	94.2%
UTA 95, CHI 85	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.37,0.44,0.4,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0	94.2%