NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	96		Excitement	5.0 [820]		MVP	Shaquille O'Neal (LAL): +11.2%
Miami Heat	88		Comeback	1.0 [1088]		LVP	Anthony Carter (MIA): -12.3%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shaquille O'Neal	0.11	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.02	-0.03	22	63%	0.16	2	-0.04	19	63%	-0.03
Kobe Bryant	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.01	12	70%	0.11	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Devean George	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	-0.01	-0.03	10	65%	0.07	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.04	-0.02	7	36%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.01	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Samaki Walker	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	40%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	10	43%	0.02	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.01
Rick Fox	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	5	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.03	2	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.10	0.01	0.06	14	66%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.01	0.01	10	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	7	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kendall Gill	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	13	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	18	36%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	13	43%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	3	0%	-0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	2.7	29.6	18.6	26.0	2.8	35.0	140.1
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +44.9%

LAL +7.2%

MIA -3.6%

MIA -0.4%

LAL +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	MIA	NBA	LAL	MIA	NBA
this game	16.5	15.9	15.6	109.1	97.8	102.3
season	15.3	16.5		106.9	96.6
opponent	15.8	15.4		98.2	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	17.3	16.8	15.8	16.2	16.5
MIA	15.5	16.7	14.2	17.3	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Horry	50	53	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.20	12	-4	16	16.5	16.6	-0.09	16.8	14.6	2.21
Devean George	50	53	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.20	12	-4	16	16.5	16.6	-0.09	16.8	14.6	2.21
Shaquille O'Neal	76	76	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.23	10	-2	12	16.3	18.0	-1.74	16.4	12.8	3.65
Lindsey Hunter	34	35	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.12	9	-1	10	18.2	15.4	2.73	15.4	16.2	-0.76
Brian Shaw	8	9	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.13	5	3	2	19.0	16.2	2.75	20.6	15.3	5.21
Kobe Bryant	72	73	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.14	2	6	-4	16.3	17.2	-0.92	15.3	18.1	-2.78
Derek Fisher	62	63	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	8	-8	15.5	19.0	-3.55	16.1	15.4	0.66
Rick Fox	38	37	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.06	-4	12	-16	16.6	16.5	0.09	14.6	16.8	-2.21
Samaki Walker	50	51	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.12	-6	14	-20	16.9	16.0	0.93	14.1	18.2	-4.13

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendall Gill	52	52	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.12	5	-13	18	14.5	17.7	-3.15	16.4	16.6	-0.14
LaPhonso Ellis	14	12	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.07	-8	0	-8	14.6	16.1	-1.45	16.3	16.5	-0.19
Brian Grant	58	59	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.11	-3	-5	2	15.7	16.1	-0.40	16.1	17.4	-1.31
Alonzo Mourning	63	62	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.12	-3	-5	2	15.5	16.8	-1.30	16.1	17.4	-1.26
Rod Strickland	64	64	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.18	-1	-7	6	16.0	15.7	0.30	16.2	17.2	-0.92
Chris Gatling	23	22	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.23	0	-8	8	17.8	15.2	2.57	18.1	16.0	2.18
Anthony Carter	20	17	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.02	-8	0	-8	15.6	15.9	-0.34	17.8	16.2	1.57
Vladimir Stepania	24	22	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.15	-4	-4	0	15.5	16.0	-0.50	17.2	16.3	0.91
Eddie Jones	77	77	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.23	-9	1	-10	16.4	12.9	3.44	16.6	15.8	0.78
Eddie House	55	53	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.24	-9	1	-10	16.7	14.6	2.12	16.3	16.8	-0.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.42,0.33,0.23,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.22,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.22,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.19,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 107, DEN 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.3,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.25,0.3,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.24,0.27,0.18,0.29,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.19,0.08,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%
MIA 108, TOR 91	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.26,0.15,0.19,0.24,0.2,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.17,0.29,0.38,0.48,0.3,0.21,0.07,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%
MIL 95, PHI 90	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.38,0.39,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.2,0.17,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.23,0.26,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.23,0.21,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0	94.0%