NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	107		Excitement	4.8 [820]		MVP	Nick Van Exel (LAL): +12.4%
Denver Nuggets	89		Comeback	1.4 [1046]		LVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): -9.7%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.14	0.02	0.03	11	86%	0.18	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	8	65%	0.09	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Elden Campbell	0.06	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.02	0.05	18	62%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Corie Blount	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.02	7	86%	0.09	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0.01	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	9	64%	0.07	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Robert Horry	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Bennett	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	1	37%	0.00	1	0.00	6	50%	0.00
Rick Fox	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.08	0.03	-0.04	9	38%	0.03	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Sean Rooks	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	2	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Kobe Bryant	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	10	42%	-0.03	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.01	-0.06	14	50%	0.07	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	12	53%	0.02	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
George Zidek	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kiwane Garris	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Wolf	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Priest Lauderdale	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	15	53%	-0.01	3	-0.04	6	83%	0.00
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	3	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	6	47%	-0.05	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Eric Washington	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	11	50%	0.02	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	10	55%	0.02	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	2.7	28.2	15.8	27.0	2.4	30.4	132.2
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +43.9%

LAL +2.8%

LAL +2.6%

DEN -5.0%

LAL +5.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	DEN	NBA	LAL	DEN	NBA
this game	15.9	14.5	15.6	113.8	92.7	102.5
season	14.8	16.2		110.0	96.7
opponent	15.2	15.6		109.5	102.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	14.8	14.7	17.6	16.5	15.9
DEN	14.0	15.3	14.4	14.2	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corie Blount	59	60	0.59	-0.09	0.67	-0.12	24	-6	30	15.6	16.3	-0.69	15.2	13.3	1.88
Derek Fisher	31	33	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.05	19	-1	20	14.2	16.7	-2.52	15.4	14.0	1.35
Eddie Jones	72	75	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.18	8	10	-2	16.0	15.4	0.64	14.5	14.5	-0.06
Rick Fox	61	63	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.10	14	4	10	16.2	15.1	1.12	15.2	13.2	2.02
Elden Campbell	68	67	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.06	12	6	6	16.6	14.0	2.56	14.8	13.7	1.18
Kobe Bryant	47	48	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.08	6	12	-6	15.4	16.3	-0.98	14.5	14.4	0.08
Sean Rooks	26	29	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.03	6	12	-6	14.0	16.6	-2.56	13.7	14.8	-1.18
Nick Van Exel	67	66	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	16	-14	16.6	14.1	2.44	14.0	15.6	-1.63
Jon Barry	10	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.12	4	14	-10	16.6	15.8	0.84	12.0	14.8	-2.77
Mario Bennett	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	18	-18	13.7	16.0	-2.33	9.0	14.8	-5.84
Robert Horry	29	30	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.09	-6	24	-30	16.8	15.4	1.41	14.2	14.6	-0.45

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Zidek	5	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-17	16	7.0	14.9	-7.89	14.6	15.9	-1.32
Kiwane Garris	5	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-17	16	7.0	14.9	-7.89	14.6	15.9	-1.32
Joe Wolf	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-18	18	8.5	14.6	-6.11	16.0	15.8	0.15
Bobby Jackson	73	72	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-16	14	14.1	15.7	-1.54	16.4	13.9	2.54
Priest Lauderdale	11	11	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.08	-8	-10	2	14.3	14.5	-0.23	12.7	16.3	-3.54
Tony Battie	37	36	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.07	-10	-8	-2	13.6	15.1	-1.48	15.2	16.2	-0.97
Dean Garrett	62	63	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.10	-5	-13	8	15.0	13.5	1.56	16.2	15.1	1.08
LaPhonso Ellis	68	67	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.01	-9	-9	0	15.0	13.1	1.89	16.5	14.3	2.23
Eric Washington	62	60	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.03	-10	-8	-2	14.4	14.7	-0.35	16.7	14.3	2.39
Danny Fortson	63	60	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.13	-9	-9	0	14.9	13.7	1.19	16.0	15.6	0.46
Johnny Newman	68	66	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.09	-17	-1	-16	14.7	13.8	0.93	15.2	17.5	-2.30
Anthony Goldwire	24	23	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	0.08	-18	0	-18	16.2	13.9	2.31	13.4	16.6	-3.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.3,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.25,0.3,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.24,0.27,0.18,0.29,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.19,0.08,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 102, PHX 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.4,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.23,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.3,0.24,0.16,0.25,0.24,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.18,0.15,0.22,0.21,0.1,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.03,0,0,0	94.7%
LAL 96, MIA 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.42,0.33,0.23,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.22,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.22,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.19,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0	94.7%
DAL 113, DET 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.16,0.21,0.26,0.28,0.24,0.28,0.36,0.26,0.18,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.01,0,0,0	94.4%