NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	99		Excitement	6.3 [563]		MVP	Pau Gasol (MEM): +19.4%
Memphis Grizzlies	105		Comeback	1.5 [793]		LVP	Gilbert Arenas (GSW): -15.7%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Troy Murphy	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	7	57%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	12	52%	0.02	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Antawn Jamison	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	16	48%	0.01	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Larry Hughes	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	10	62%	0.06	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Bob Sura	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	14	60%	0.06	5	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Adonal Foyle	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	5	33%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Chris Mills	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	7	43%	-0.06	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.02
Jason Richardson	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.18,-0.13,-0.12	-0.13	-0.01	-0.02	15	36%	-0.09	1	-0.03	9	67%	-0.01
Gilbert Arenas	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.13	-0.04	-0.01	8	12%	-0.09	2	-0.07	1	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.19	0.19	0.06	0.15	0.01	18	65%	0.25	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	0.00	16	55%	0.10	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Grant Long	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	2	100%	0.05	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	9	59%	0.06	4	-0.08	4	75%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	17	44%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	21	49%	0.03	4	-0.08	3	100%	0.01
Rodney Buford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.14	-0.02	-0.02	13	23%	-0.11	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.9	2.7	24.3	15.6	27.0	2.0	37.0	131.5
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +49.1%

GSW -12.8%

MEM +11.8%

MEM +5.5%

GSW -3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MEM	NBA	GSW	MEM	NBA
this game	14.2	14.5	15.6	100.0	102.9	102.3
season	14.7	15.7		100.7	96.0
opponent	15.2	15.1		103.8	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.9	15.3	14.9	12.5	14.2
MEM	11.4	13.0	15.7	18.8	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Larry Hughes	46	48	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.17	4	-10	14	14.2	14.1	0.10	14.1	14.9	-0.81
Bob Sura	56	59	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.26	6	-12	18	13.1	15.5	-2.43	14.4	14.7	-0.28
Erick Dampier	67	71	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.32	7	-13	20	13.7	15.1	-1.42	14.7	14.0	0.75
Troy Murphy	66	68	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.12	-3	-3	0	15.0	12.4	2.61	13.1	17.2	-4.12
Chris Mills	53	53	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.26	1	-7	8	14.0	14.4	-0.43	15.9	12.9	3.03
Gilbert Arenas	34	35	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.01	-13	7	-20	16.4	13.0	3.34	13.1	15.2	-2.18
Adonal Foyle	39	38	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.05	-13	7	-20	15.0	13.6	1.43	14.8	14.3	0.44
Jason Richardson	62	62	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.21	-9	3	-12	13.9	14.6	-0.78	15.7	12.5	3.19
Antawn Jamison	72	76	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.23	-10	4	-14	13.5	16.0	-2.53	14.4	14.9	-0.53

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Grant Long	56	55	0.56	-0.07	0.63	0.15	14	-8	22	13.7	15.4	-1.64	15.1	13.0	2.01
Lorenzen Wright	71	71	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.18	12	-6	18	14.5	14.5	0.06	14.6	12.9	1.72
Pau Gasol	69	68	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.28	8	-2	10	14.6	14.2	0.46	15.0	12.4	2.63
Jason Williams	102	99	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	0	6	14.5	0.0	14.49	14.2	0.0	14.16
Shane Battier	87	83	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.25	8	-2	10	14.8	12.7	2.14	14.2	14.0	0.19
Stromile Swift	48	46	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.12	-2	8	-10	14.5	14.5	-0.06	13.2	15.0	-1.89
Rodney Buford	61	60	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.24	-10	16	-26	14.7	14.1	0.57	13.3	15.5	-2.19
Tony Massenburg	16	13	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.06	-6	12	-18	13.9	14.6	-0.73	10.8	14.7	-3.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.89,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.89,0.93,0.97,0.89,0.91,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 88, SAS 101	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.5,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.66,0.74,0.69,0.76,0.86,0.87,0.85,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
MIL 92, NYK 97	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.61,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.73,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.77,0.84,0.8,0.89,0.91,0.96,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.89,0.88,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.99,1	95.2%
NJN 74, PHX 87	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.81,0.82,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.88,0.92,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%