NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	78		Excitement	4.1 [977]		MVP	Keith Van Horn (NJN): +11.3%
New Jersey Nets	97		Comeback	1.1 [961]		LVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): -15.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jim Jackson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.01	0.02	-0.05	12	59%	0.10	3	-0.03	5	100%	0.05
Vladimir Stepania	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	0.02	0.04	3	112%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Malik Allen	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	8	39%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Brian Grant	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	6	43%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Rod Strickland	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	13	38%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	0.02	9	58%	-0.01	4	-0.07	6	100%	0.01
Kendall Gill	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	10	30%	-0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.15	-0.03	-0.02	13	12%	-0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.03	0.01	16	70%	0.15	2	-0.04	8	87%	0.02
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.02	0.02	3	100%	0.07	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Kerry Kittles	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	9	53%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	10	58%	0.02	4	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Aaron Williams	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	8	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Brandon Armstrong	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Scalabrine	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.04	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	8	37%	-0.06
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	11	41%	-0.01	2	-0.04	5	60%	0.00
Lucious Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	10	35%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.4	24.7	15.3	22.9	2.0	30.4	124.7
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +50.3%

MIA -8.8%

NJN +11.8%

MIA -2.0%

MIA -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NJN	NBA	MIA	NJN	NBA
this game	17.5	14.1	15.6	85.7	106.6	102.3
season	16.5	14.7		96.6	101.4
opponent	16.0	15.8		98.0	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.3	17.8	18.6	16.5	17.5
NJN	12.5	14.3	15.0	14.8	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Gatling	50	50	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.10	5	-24	29	17.2	17.9	-0.66	15.1	13.0	2.15
Malik Allen	4	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-17	15	12.7	17.7	-4.99	12.6	14.2	-1.62
Vladimir Stepania	28	29	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.09	1	-20	21	16.1	18.1	-1.98	14.6	13.9	0.72
Anthony Carter	39	39	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.04	-5	-14	9	16.5	18.2	-1.71	14.7	13.7	0.98
Jim Jackson	63	64	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.08	-7	-12	5	17.4	17.7	-0.29	14.5	13.2	1.29
Eddie Jones	53	53	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.07	-12	-7	-5	17.4	17.7	-0.24	14.5	13.7	0.81
Rod Strickland	54	53	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.13	-16	-3	-13	18.5	16.1	2.37	13.7	14.7	-0.95
Kendall Gill	60	59	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.03	-15	-4	-11	17.8	17.0	0.78	13.5	15.2	-1.72
Brian Grant	50	50	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.08	-19	0	-19	18.1	16.8	1.25	13.3	15.1	-1.80
Alonzo Mourning	54	53	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	0.23	-25	6	-31	18.0	16.8	1.14	13.7	14.7	-0.99

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith Van Horn	75	77	0.50	0.00	0.49	-0.15	22	-3	25	14.3	13.5	0.77	17.5	17.4	0.19
Jason Kidd	71	72	0.45	0.05	0.39	-0.17	21	-2	23	13.8	15.2	-1.37	18.1	15.3	2.78
Kenyon Martin	65	65	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.14	16	3	13	13.6	15.3	-1.70	18.2	15.7	2.55
Kerry Kittles	59	59	0.29	0.20	0.09	-0.12	14	5	9	13.8	14.7	-0.86	17.8	17.1	0.70
Lucious Harris	40	40	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.07	7	12	-5	15.2	13.3	1.91	17.6	17.4	0.19
Jason Collins	54	51	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.17	3	16	-13	13.8	14.6	-0.87	17.3	17.8	-0.51
Aaron Williams	37	40	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.23	16	3	13	14.6	13.8	0.87	17.8	17.3	0.51
Richard Jefferson	39	38	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.15	1	18	-17	15.1	13.4	1.61	16.7	18.1	-1.43
Brandon Armstrong	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	20	-21	9.3	14.3	-4.96	8.5	17.7	-9.22
Brian Scalabrine	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	20	-21	9.3	14.3	-4.96	8.5	17.7	-9.22
Anthony Johnson	9	9	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.07	-3	22	-25	15.3	14.0	1.33	12.8	18.0	-5.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.72,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.88,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.82,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.92,0.86,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.78,0.92,0.88,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 102, HOU 112	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.74,0.77,0.81,0.76,0.8,0.86,0.85,0.84,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.88,0.77,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.79,0.95,0.87,0.85,0.91,0.88,0.92,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.5%
DET 99, WAS 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.77,0.77,0.77,0.83,0.87,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.81,0.88,0.87,0.87,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.84,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.99,1,1	95.8%
UTA 104, SAS 114	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.69,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.85,0.83,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.84,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.82,0.86,0.79,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.99,1,0.99,1,0.98,1,1	95.5%