NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	102		Excitement	4.8 [875]		MVP	Rafer Alston (HOU): +15.5%
Houston Rockets	112		Comeback	1.1 [896]		LVP	Gary Payton (MIA): -7.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shaquille O'Neal	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	-0.00	0.02	15	57%	0.05	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	57%	0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Michael Doleac	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	6	58%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	25	47%	0.06	4	-0.08	7	71%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	8	50%	-0.05
Eddie Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Antoine Walker	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	12	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	0.03	12	50%	-0.00	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Gary Payton	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rafer Alston	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.03	-0.04	15	67%	0.19	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	9	62%	0.11	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	7	69%	0.11	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	3	87%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	9	60%	0.08	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.02	-0.03	24	59%	0.14	7	-0.12	6	67%	-0.03
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	8	53%	0.04	3	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	45%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	3.5	32.2	18.7	28.9	3.5	35.5	147.4
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +63.2%

MIA -0.6%

MIA -9.2%

MIA -4.5%

HOU +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	HOU	NBA	MIA	HOU	NBA
this game	14.2	15.0	15.4	103.0	114.3	104.5
season	16.0	15.6		102.4	103.6
opponent	15.7	15.6		99.2	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.5	12.3	14.6	13.7	14.2
HOU	13.5	14.4	15.4	17.0	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Doleac	7	6	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-13	16	8.6	14.6	-6.07	19.8	14.7	5.12
Alonzo Mourning	38	36	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	-8	6	13.3	14.8	-1.41	15.3	14.9	0.43
Eddie Jones	37	35	-0.17	-0.34	0.17	-0.11	-2	-8	6	12.3	15.3	-3.01	14.8	15.2	-0.40
Antoine Walker	37	38	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.14	-1	-9	8	13.3	14.7	-1.42	14.6	15.3	-0.65
Jason Williams	39	40	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.10	-3	-7	4	13.9	14.4	-0.52	14.8	15.2	-0.39
James Posey	49	48	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.13	-5	-5	0	13.6	14.8	-1.19	14.7	15.3	-0.63
Udonis Haslem	52	51	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.02	-9	-1	-8	14.9	13.4	1.46	15.3	14.8	0.51
Gary Payton	40	39	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.02	-11	1	-12	16.6	12.6	3.96	14.9	15.1	-0.18
Jason Kapono	73	71	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.23	-3	-7	4	14.0	14.8	-0.81	15.7	13.1	2.60
Shaquille O'Neal	53	56	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.06	-9	-1	-8	15.8	12.3	3.52	14.3	16.0	-1.61
Dwyane Wade	70	70	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.09	-8	-2	-6	14.4	13.7	0.74	14.9	15.4	-0.51

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy McGrady	83	81	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.01	19	-9	28	15.1	14.7	0.35	14.8	11.7	3.11
Dikembe Mutombo	81	76	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.14	11	-1	12	14.5	17.7	-3.24	15.2	10.9	4.35
Shane Battier	76	79	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.20	5	5	0	15.4	13.6	1.86	14.3	13.9	0.33
Juwan Howard	60	62	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.07	9	1	8	15.6	14.1	1.55	13.9	14.7	-0.83
Rafer Alston	60	62	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.06	7	3	4	15.1	14.8	0.31	14.2	14.2	0.04
Luther Head	57	58	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.26	-1	11	-12	14.8	15.3	-0.49	13.1	15.8	-2.68
Bonzi Wells	47	47	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.27	-2	12	-14	14.9	15.2	-0.35	13.6	14.8	-1.17
Charles Hayes	26	30	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	8	-6	14.5	15.2	-0.72	13.7	14.4	-0.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.74,0.77,0.81,0.76,0.8,0.86,0.85,0.84,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.88,0.77,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.79,0.95,0.87,0.85,0.91,0.88,0.92,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 78, NJN 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.72,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.88,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.82,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.92,0.86,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.78,0.92,0.88,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.5%
DET 99, WAS 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.77,0.77,0.77,0.83,0.87,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.81,0.88,0.87,0.87,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.84,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.99,1,1	95.8%
WAS 93, MIL 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.65,0.65,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.75,0.8,0.89,0.84,0.87,0.84,0.79,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.87,0.82,0.9,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.89,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%