NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	82		Excitement	4.3 [946]		MVP	Karl Malone (UTA): +7.9%
Utah Jazz	100		Comeback	1.2 [1227]		LVP	Juwan Howard (DEN): -24.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Calbert Cheaney	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zendon Hamilton	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	57%	0.00	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Donnell Harvey	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.04	5	60%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mengke Bateer	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	4	60%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Satterfield	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	2	33%	-0.00	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	80%	0.06	5	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Voshon Lenard	-0.07	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	14	57%	0.02	4	-0.08	7	71%	-0.03
George McCloud	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.13	-0.00	-0.04	8	18%	-0.05	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
James Posey	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	0.01	7	41%	-0.08	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.01
Juwan Howard	-0.24	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.2,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.23,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.21	-0.04	-0.00	12	29%	-0.13	5	-0.11	4	50%	-0.02

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Karl Malone	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.01	-0.03	10	70%	0.09	2	-0.01	10	90%	0.03
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.01	0.03	10	71%	0.06	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Amaechi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rusty LaRue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	67%	0.02	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Jarron Collins	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	6	56%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
John Starks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
John Stockton	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	0.05	5	93%	0.05	4	-0.09	5	80%	-0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	59%	-0.02	1	-0.02	10	70%	-0.02
Scott Padgett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	0.05	5	55%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Bryon Russell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	6	29%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	1.8	30.1	14.7	32.0	2.8	32.4	140.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +28.1%

UTA +8.4%

DEN -13.2%

UTA +25.5%

UTA +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	UTA	NBA	DEN	UTA	NBA
this game	16.1	13.9	15.6	85.4	104.2	102.3
season	16.1	16.1		99.7	102.9
opponent	15.1	15.2		101.9	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.5	14.8	16.2	19.4	16.1
UTA	14.9	13.4	13.1	14.2	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mengke Bateer	22	23	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-20	22	15.9	16.2	-0.28	14.4	13.7	0.68
George McCloud	32	32	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.02	1	-19	20	18.2	15.1	3.09	14.7	13.5	1.22
Zendon Hamilton	16	16	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.07	-3	-15	12	17.2	15.9	1.27	14.4	13.8	0.67
Calbert Cheaney	27	27	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.01	-3	-15	12	15.1	16.5	-1.36	14.9	13.5	1.41
James Posey	44	45	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.08	-10	-8	-2	15.2	16.9	-1.78	13.3	14.4	-1.15
Ryan Bowen	33	30	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.02	-8	-10	2	17.5	15.4	2.12	12.5	14.5	-2.00
Kenny Satterfield	37	37	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.09	-11	-7	-4	15.9	16.3	-0.38	14.1	13.7	0.38
Tim Hardaway	35	37	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.05	-13	-5	-8	15.6	16.4	-0.87	13.1	14.3	-1.20
Donnell Harvey	45	44	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.04	-11	-7	-4	16.1	16.2	-0.07	13.4	14.3	-0.86
Voshon Lenard	73	73	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.04	-13	-5	-8	15.8	17.1	-1.32	14.1	13.2	0.92
Juwan Howard	71	72	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.06	-14	-4	-10	16.2	15.9	0.33	13.9	13.7	0.28

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Karl Malone	79	80	0.56	-0.06	0.61	-0.12	23	-5	28	13.7	14.8	-1.08	16.1	16.2	-0.15
John Stockton	54	54	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.14	17	1	16	13.9	13.8	0.16	16.6	15.5	1.11
Bryon Russell	50	50	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.01	9	9	0	13.8	13.9	-0.11	16.0	16.2	-0.18
Donyell Marshall	54	52	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.04	10	8	2	13.4	14.5	-1.20	16.1	16.2	-0.15
Andrei Kirilenko	42	44	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.01	8	10	-2	14.5	13.4	1.20	16.2	16.1	0.15
John Starks	36	37	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.01	8	10	-2	13.5	14.1	-0.56	15.8	16.3	-0.56
Jarron Collins	35	36	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.06	4	14	-10	13.4	14.2	-0.79	16.4	15.9	0.51
Scott Padgett	48	46	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.03	7	11	-4	13.8	14.0	-0.21	16.9	15.4	1.55
Rusty LaRue	42	42	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.11	1	17	-16	13.8	13.9	-0.16	15.5	16.6	-1.11
Greg Ostertag	22	23	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	15	-12	15.1	13.5	1.58	13.7	16.9	-3.14
DeShawn Stevenson	10	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	17	-16	15.4	13.7	1.70	18.0	15.9	2.07
John Amaechi	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	19	-20	15.2	13.7	1.50	17.3	16.0	1.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.74,0.66,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.75,0.84,0.77,0.85,0.89,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 85, MEM 94	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.89,0.86,0.92,0.88,0.83,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.96,1	96.5%
UTA 75, DET 96	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.65,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.91,0.93,0.88,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
PHX 114, GSW 129	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.83,0.86,0.82,0.91,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%