NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	100		Excitement	3.3 [1105]		MVP	Jason Terry (ATL): +6.2%
Golden State Warriors	94		Comeback	1.2 [528]		LVP	Bob Sura (GSW): -12.3%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06	-0.04	0.01	-0.10	22	41%	0.07	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hanno Mottola	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.02	0.01	-0.08	7	43%	0.06	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.07	6	47%	0.02	2	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	12	54%	0.02	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Dion Glover	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	8	70%	0.05	4	-0.06	4	50%	-0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	17	59%	0.02	3	-0.03	10	70%	-0.01
Alan Henderson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	5	20%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ira Newble	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	8	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07	-0.12	-0.01	-0.05	5	29%	-0.03	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	9	56%	0.04	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dean Oliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	-0.01	-0.05	17	42%	0.01	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	0.00	0.05	3	75%	-0.01	0	0.00	10	100%	0.01
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	4	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Chris Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	15	50%	-0.04	2	-0.02	10	60%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	5	20%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	8	50%	0.03	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.01	0.01	6	47%	-0.05	3	-0.05	7	71%	-0.01
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.00	0.00	8	46%	-0.06	3	-0.06	12	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.3	26.7	16.4	27.3	1.8	46.3	144.5
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +35.2%

GSW -0.8%

GSW -0.6%

ATL +15.8%

ATL +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	GSW	NBA	ATL	GSW	NBA
this game	15.4	11.9	15.6	95.2	88.7	102.3
season	15.5	14.7		99.7	100.7
opponent	15.1	15.2		106.2	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.0	15.8	14.6	15.5	15.4
GSW	13.0	14.2	12.0	8.8	11.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Terry	100	100	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.13	14	-8	22	15.3	18.2	-2.90	11.9	11.2	0.75
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	96	97	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.26	9	-3	12	15.6	13.3	2.30	11.8	12.7	-0.86
Ira Newble	88	91	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.34	6	0	6	15.9	12.9	2.98	11.6	13.8	-2.24
DerMarr Johnson	64	62	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.06	10	-4	14	14.6	16.8	-2.16	11.8	11.9	-0.09
Nazr Mohammed	67	67	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.01	11	-5	16	16.1	14.3	1.80	12.4	11.0	1.43
Hanno Mottola	23	24	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.12	1	5	-4	16.3	15.2	1.11	10.9	12.2	-1.24
Toni Kukoc	34	34	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.37	-9	15	-24	14.9	15.7	-0.73	10.1	12.7	-2.68
Dion Glover	7	8	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.05	3	3	0	15.4	15.4	-0.01	16.5	11.5	5.00
Alan Henderson	14	16	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.07	-3	9	-12	14.4	15.6	-1.16	14.2	11.5	2.79
Jacque Vaughn	32	31	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.29	-12	18	-30	14.6	15.8	-1.17	12.2	11.8	0.40

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dean Oliver	20	21	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.35	12	-18	30	7.1	13.0	-5.83	13.5	15.9	-2.45
Chris Mills	8	9	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.01	-1	-5	4	16.1	11.5	4.59	18.0	15.2	2.80
Gilbert Arenas	43	44	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.43	13	-19	32	11.9	11.9	0.05	14.5	16.1	-1.54
Adonal Foyle	26	24	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-6	6	13.8	11.3	2.51	17.6	14.8	2.78
Bob Sura	68	69	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.21	1	-7	8	11.7	12.1	-0.36	15.5	15.4	0.07
Erick Dampier	49	48	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.25	-1	-5	4	11.3	12.4	-1.14	16.5	14.5	2.03
Danny Fortson	53	53	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.00	-10	4	-14	12.2	11.5	0.74	15.9	14.9	0.98
Troy Murphy	39	38	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.16	-16	10	-26	14.0	10.6	3.36	14.8	15.8	-1.06
Jason Richardson	80	77	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.26	-3	-3	0	11.2	13.8	-2.61	15.1	16.5	-1.40
Larry Hughes	46	46	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.13	-20	14	-34	12.6	11.3	1.22	15.5	15.4	0.11
Antawn Jamison	98	96	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.32	-5	-1	-4	11.5	16.1	-4.59	15.2	18.0	-2.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.28,0.24,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 103, TOR 81	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.47,0.46,0.41,0.32,0.27,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.12,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
DAL 122, PHX 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.38,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.16,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%
ATL 102, WAS 75	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.26,0.23,0.2,0.21,0.17,0.14,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%