NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	90		Excitement	11.7 [18]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIL): +8.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	88		Comeback	58.2 [19]		LVP	Tim Thomas (MIL): -65.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vladimir Stepania	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.02	9	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Eddie Jones	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.27,-0.27,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	17	52%	0.21	2	-0.24	8	87%	0.11
Chris Gatling	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.11,-0.04	-0.07	0.03	-0.00	10	35%	0.10	2	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.05	-0.09	0.01	6	67%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,-0.05	0.01	-0.05	0.01	15	64%	0.22	4	-0.27	3	100%	0.02
Eddie House	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	5	30%	-0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.15	0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.06	-0.07	0.01	12	47%	-0.05	2	-0.09	6	67%	-0.02
Rod Strickland	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.16	-0.04	-0.01	9	15%	-0.14	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.22,0.22,0.09	0.09	0.12	0.01	0.05	22	62%	0.14	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.09
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.06	0.00	2	100%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.03	0.09	0.00	5	33%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.10
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	6	25%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.28	-0.28	-0.10	-0.18	-0.00	9	23%	-0.28	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Glenn Robinson	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.29,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37,-0.49,-0.49,-0.49,-0.58	-0.58	-0.17	-0.38	0.02	26	43%	-0.43	6	-0.15	6	50%	-0.08
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.26,-0.41,-0.36,-0.36,-0.36,-0.41,-0.41,-0.65	-0.65	-0.11	-0.55	-0.00	8	55%	-0.04	6	-0.62	4	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	20.9	2.5	26.5	15.4	22.5	1.6	32.0	1.5	11.2	134.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	1.7	16.7	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +67.6%

MIL -17.3%

MIL -20.5%

MIL -1.3%

MIA +21.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	17.5	15.5	15.6	93.8	90.7	102.3
season	16.5	15.3		96.6	104.7
opponent	16.0	15.8		105.1	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	15.9	18.5	17.5	19.3	15.3	17.5
MIL	14.7	16.7	16.0	15.0	14.7	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	83	85	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.50	11	-9	20	16.9	21.2	-4.25	15.4	16.4	-1.06
Jim Jackson	56	57	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.28	8	-6	14	17.8	17.1	0.69	15.5	15.4	0.06
Eddie House	27	27	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.07	14	-12	26	17.1	17.6	-0.56	16.2	15.2	0.97
Kendall Gill	45	45	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.59	-11	13	-24	17.9	17.1	0.73	14.6	16.2	-1.65
Alonzo Mourning	77	78	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.21	1	1	0	17.3	18.2	-0.91	15.9	13.7	2.24
Brian Grant	67	66	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.37	-5	7	-12	17.0	18.6	-1.59	15.1	16.2	-1.09
Rod Strickland	69	70	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.52	-12	14	-26	17.6	17.1	0.56	15.2	16.2	-0.97
LaPhonso Ellis	43	45	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.25	11	-9	20	19.0	16.2	2.84	15.4	15.6	-0.20
Chris Gatling	3	2	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	4	-6	27.0	17.2	9.83	18.5	15.4	3.08
Vladimir Stepania	10	10	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.03	-5	7	-12	13.9	17.9	-4.00	19.2	15.1	4.14

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Przybilla	26	26	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.13	5	-7	12	14.6	15.8	-1.24	16.7	17.8	-1.08
Anthony Mason	84	83	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.45	11	-13	24	15.3	16.4	-1.04	17.1	19.8	-2.74
Michael Redd	25	24	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.00	-5	3	-8	16.3	15.2	1.07	19.1	16.9	2.14
Ervin Johnson	59	60	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.00	-7	5	-12	16.9	13.2	3.70	17.4	17.6	-0.26
Ray Allen	82	81	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.46	8	-10	18	14.9	18.9	-4.08	17.0	19.8	-2.75
Rafer Alston	48	47	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.03	-9	7	-16	15.4	15.5	-0.09	17.2	17.7	-0.52
Tim Thomas	58	59	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.36	-3	1	-4	15.1	16.0	-0.90	18.4	15.9	2.49
Darvin Ham	23	22	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.22	-11	9	-20	14.5	15.8	-1.26	19.0	17.0	2.03
Glenn Robinson	80	78	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.62	1	-3	4	15.8	13.9	1.94	17.2	18.9	-1.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.83,0.77,0.81,0.8,0.74,0.68,0.64,0.67,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.23,0.32,0.58,0.46,0.55,0.36,0.68,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 110, SEA 107	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.65,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.56,0.34,0.26,0.3,0.43,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.29,0.33,0.28,0.54,0.32,0.28,0.33,0.73,0	87.0%
CLE 100, ATL 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.67,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.63,0.6,0.49,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.52,0.44,0.34,0.4,0.34,0.43,0.52,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.15,0.31,0.26,0	86.7%
NYK 112, DEN 108	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.48,0.41,0.33,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.34,0.42,0.53,0.41,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.32,0.74,0.46,0.25,0.54,0.43,0.42,0	86.4%