NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	100		Excitement	9.8 [81]		MVP	Kyrie Irving (CLE): +16.1%
Atlanta Hawks	99		Comeback	3.1 [176]		LVP	LeBron James (CLE): -44.5%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyrie Irving	0.16	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.05	0.05	-0.06	16	57%	0.18	2	-0.01	5	80%	0.01
Channing Frye	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.09	-0.00	6	67%	0.17	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Iman Shumpert	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	6	71%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Matthew Dellavedova	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tristan Thompson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	3	62%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Richard Jefferson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02	0.07	-0.09	-0.01	25	53%	0.04	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
J.R. Smith	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	4	37%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	-0.44	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.31,-0.24,-0.24,-0.5,-0.44	-0.13	-0.30	0.01	23	43%	-0.18	6	-0.27	3	0%	-0.06

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kris Humphries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	5	67%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Kent Bazemore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.04	0.00	12	46%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.04	0.01	12	62%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.05
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.00	14	54%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.06	-0.03	12	56%	0.10	3	-0.12	10	80%	0.01
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.15,-0.05	-0.05	0.05	-0.10	-0.00	18	58%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	5	50%	-0.00	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	3.6	29.8	15.8	27.5	3.0	37.6	142.7
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +7.8%

CLE +2.0%

CLE +47.0%

ATL -12.6%

CLE +5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	ATL	NBA	CLE	ATL	NBA
this game	16.5	14.4	14.9	106.4	107.6	105.1
season	15.8	14.2		110.3	104.1
opponent	15.1	14.9		100.3	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	14.6	15.1	17.6	19.2	16.5
ATL	13.6	15.5	14.5	14.2	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	74	72	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.58	2	-1	3	16.5	16.6	-0.13	14.1	15.7	-1.67
Kyrie Irving	85	82	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.37	7	-6	13	16.3	18.1	-1.78	14.4	14.8	-0.40
J.R. Smith	73	69	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.54	1	0	1	15.9	18.6	-2.73	13.8	16.4	-2.59
Kevin Love	73	74	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.15	14	-13	27	16.2	17.4	-1.20	14.3	15.2	-0.90
Tristan Thompson	57	55	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.21	9	-8	17	17.6	14.7	2.92	14.1	15.0	-0.88
Matthew Dellavedova	27	29	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.48	-6	7	-13	17.6	16.1	1.48	15.3	14.0	1.26
Iman Shumpert	34	34	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.05	4	-3	7	17.2	16.1	1.06	16.4	13.3	3.03
Richard Jefferson	8	7	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.07	-9	10	-19	15.5	16.6	-1.09	15.6	14.4	1.22
Channing Frye	39	38	-0.51	1.01	-1.51	-0.01	-17	18	-35	15.8	17.0	-1.25	14.7	14.3	0.41

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Korver	45	49	0.28	-0.78	1.07	-0.19	16	-17	33	15.0	13.9	1.09	17.2	15.8	1.39
Kris Humphries	24	23	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.13	3	-4	7	13.5	14.8	-1.22	17.1	16.3	0.78
Mike Scott	7	6	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.03	-3	2	-5	16.4	14.3	2.15	15.3	16.6	-1.25
Dennis Schroder	47	48	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.39	11	-12	23	15.0	13.9	1.05	17.8	15.2	2.60
Jeff Teague	44	46	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.01	-10	9	-19	14.1	14.7	-0.64	15.2	17.8	-2.60
Paul Millsap	79	82	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.49	3	-4	7	14.4	14.8	-0.47	16.4	17.0	-0.57
Thabo Sefolosha	64	62	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.38	-7	6	-13	14.1	15.2	-1.10	16.1	17.3	-1.18
Al Horford	75	77	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.44	-7	6	-13	14.5	14.2	0.26	16.5	16.5	-0.04
Kent Bazemore	75	77	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	-0.37	-11	10	-21	14.4	14.6	-0.25	16.4	16.9	-0.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.67,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.63,0.6,0.49,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.52,0.44,0.34,0.4,0.34,0.43,0.52,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.15,0.31,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 107, CHI 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.6,0.57,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.71,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.47,0.48,0.56,0.46,0.38,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.59,0.4,0.53,0.38,0.28,0.32,0.16,0	91.9%
UTA 97, MEM 91	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.47,0.37,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.32,0.16,0.22,0.04,0	91.3%
SEA 117, NYK 110	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.54,0.63,0.71,0.71,0.66,0.67,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.35,0.33,0.15,0.22,0.15,0.05,0	91.3%