NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	82		Excitement	4.1 [979]		MVP	Kurt Thomas (NYK): +13.6%
New York Knicks	89		Comeback	2.1 [734]		LVP	Chris Childs (TOR): -17.7%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Morris Peterson	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	20	54%	0.05	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.00
Keon Clark	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	16	59%	0.02	0	0.00	12	50%	-0.06
Eric Montross	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine Jackson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Stewart	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	3	12%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tracy Murray	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.04	0.03	18	44%	-0.08	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.16	-0.01	-0.04	12	21%	-0.11	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Chris Childs	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.14	-0.05	-0.01	10	27%	-0.09	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.06	0.01	15	61%	0.14	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	9	57%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Travis Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	5	80%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Felton Spencer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	5	70%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Ward	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.07	0.00	-0.06	9	45%	0.02	3	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.01	-0.04	11	48%	0.00	3	-0.05	7	86%	0.02
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	37%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Allan Houston	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	11	57%	0.05	4	-0.11	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.9	2.0	27.2	16.7	26.6	1.8	30.4	126.6
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +60.8%

NYK +5.2%

TOR -3.6%

TOR -12.7%

NYK +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	NYK	NBA	TOR	NYK	NBA
this game	17.2	15.4	15.6	93.2	100.0	102.3
season	16.2	15.9		100.3	99.6
opponent	15.6	15.6		103.9	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.0	20.2	18.6	15.3	17.2
NYK	15.7	14.0	15.0	16.7	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Montross	16	17	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.11	3	-10	13	15.6	17.5	-1.88	14.8	15.5	-0.70
Tracy Murray	12	13	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.05	-6	-1	-5	21.2	16.5	4.64	11.5	16.1	-4.51
Michael Stewart	13	14	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.02	-6	-1	-5	20.3	16.6	3.69	11.6	16.1	-4.54
Alvin Williams	81	82	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.33	2	-9	11	16.8	21.7	-4.95	15.5	14.0	1.51
Jermaine Jackson	30	31	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-8	1	-9	18.9	16.3	2.64	14.6	15.8	-1.20
Morris Peterson	76	76	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.34	-1	-6	5	16.5	21.2	-4.64	16.1	11.5	4.51
Keon Clark	74	75	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.21	-7	0	-7	17.0	18.2	-1.25	15.7	13.9	1.82
Antonio Davis	73	72	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.29	-4	-3	-1	17.1	17.3	-0.13	16.0	12.9	3.03
Chris Childs	65	65	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.18	-8	1	-9	16.8	18.0	-1.20	15.6	14.8	0.82

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Ward	45	42	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.05	13	-6	19	14.1	16.7	-2.55	18.0	16.4	1.65
Travis Knight	18	20	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.02	12	-5	17	16.1	15.2	0.83	20.4	16.2	4.26
Shandon Anderson	40	39	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.12	8	-1	9	14.4	16.2	-1.85	17.8	16.7	1.10
Latrell Sprewell	73	71	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.32	1	6	-5	15.4	15.2	0.25	17.0	18.0	-1.04
Allan Houston	65	66	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.15	5	2	3	16.0	13.8	2.14	17.0	17.6	-0.58
Othella Harrington	30	30	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.00	10	-3	13	14.0	16.1	-2.15	18.3	16.6	1.73
Kurt Thomas	56	56	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.29	-3	10	-13	16.1	14.2	1.93	16.7	18.0	-1.37
Clar. Weatherspoon	67	64	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.25	-4	11	-15	15.5	15.2	0.28	16.5	19.0	-2.53
Mark Jackson	44	46	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.24	-6	13	-19	16.7	14.1	2.55	16.4	18.0	-1.65
Felton Spencer	7	6	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	8	-9	13.4	15.6	-2.13	12.5	17.5	-5.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.69,0.74,0.72,0.8,0.84,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.93,0.92,0.85,0.96,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 86, MEM 95	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.86,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.98,0.95,0.89,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.99,1,1	95.6%
POR 96, BKN 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.35,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.78,0.76,0.83,0.8,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.91,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.98,0.94,0.92,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.93,1,0.99,1,1	95.3%
TOR 99, UTA 131	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.66,0.76,0.82,0.81,0.78,0.8,0.89,0.9,0.89,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%