NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	97		Excitement	4.2 [960]		MVP	P.J. Brown (CHH): +8.3%
Memphis Grizzlies	79		Comeback	1.0 [1051]		LVP	Grant Long (MEM): -13.0%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	8	68%	0.08	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Elden Campbell	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	0.01	9	79%	0.11	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.00
George Lynch	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.03	0.02	10	60%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryce Drew	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.02	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	6	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Haston	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lee Nailon	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	11	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Baron Davis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	19	43%	-0.01	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.01	0.00	10	43%	-0.09	2	-0.03	10	70%	-0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney Buford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.02	-0.03	8	56%	0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.01
Will Solomon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	62%	0.05	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Antonis Fotsis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	62%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	9	57%	0.04	4	-0.07	5	100%	0.02
Pau Gasol	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	7	56%	0.00	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	11	43%	-0.03	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.03
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	7	50%	-0.04	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Grant Long	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.02	11	44%	-0.01	5	-0.12	3	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.7	2.5	36.4	15.5	24.2	2.6	24.5	134.5
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +10.0%

MEM -3.4%

CHH +10.5%

CHH +32.0%

CHH +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	MEM	NBA	CHH	MEM	NBA
this game	17.7	15.8	15.6	112.8	91.9	102.3
season	15.9	15.7		102.2	96.0
opponent	15.2	15.6		103.8	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	16.8	20.1	17.3	16.9	17.7
MEM	16.7	16.9	13.5	16.6	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	66	65	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.03	18	0	18	17.7	17.4	0.29	15.4	17.1	-1.76
Baron Davis	79	79	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.06	19	-1	20	16.9	26.4	-9.53	15.7	17.0	-1.29
George Lynch	67	67	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.06	17	1	16	18.1	16.0	2.15	15.7	16.1	-0.37
Lee Nailon	69	70	0.43	0.07	0.37	-0.06	17	1	16	17.2	19.6	-2.39	15.6	16.6	-1.00
Jamaal Magloire	42	40	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.01	12	6	6	16.5	18.8	-2.34	15.4	16.2	-0.82
Elden Campbell	44	46	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.04	6	12	-6	18.8	16.5	2.34	16.2	15.4	0.82
Bryce Drew	31	31	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.06	4	14	-10	18.5	17.2	1.22	17.1	15.1	2.01
Stacey Augmon	27	28	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.10	-3	21	-24	19.6	16.8	2.74	16.4	15.5	0.86
Kirk Haston	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	18	-18	14.2	17.9	-3.69	15.5	15.8	-0.33

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Solomon	27	27	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.04	4	-22	26	16.1	15.7	0.49	17.1	17.9	-0.88
Antonis Fotsis	4	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-18	18	15.5	15.8	-0.33	14.2	17.9	-3.69
Stromile Swift	69	69	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.00	-7	-11	4	15.6	16.5	-0.89	17.4	18.6	-1.21
Rodney Buford	53	53	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.00	-9	-9	0	15.6	16.2	-0.55	17.2	18.5	-1.27
Pau Gasol	55	53	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.04	-9	-9	0	16.0	15.5	0.42	18.3	16.7	1.64
Tony Massenburg	22	22	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.05	-14	-4	-10	17.7	15.2	2.51	18.5	17.4	1.05
Shane Battier	71	72	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.04	-16	-2	-14	15.8	15.7	0.18	17.7	17.4	0.38
Grant Long	70	70	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	0.06	-17	-1	-16	15.4	17.5	-2.07	17.7	17.4	0.37
Brevin Knight	59	59	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	0.07	-22	4	-26	15.7	16.1	-0.49	17.9	17.1	0.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.39,0.34,0.29,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.34,0.37,0.31,0.22,0.14,0.17,0.25,0.31,0.3,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 105, CHI 89	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.21,0.13,0.08,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.05,0,0,0,0	95.4%
IND 108, NJN 94	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.28,0.24,0.19,0.21,0.32,0.28,0.15,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%
DAL 93, SAS 72	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.28,0.31,0.29,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.24,0.18,0.26,0.25,0.15,0.11,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%