NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	86		Excitement	8.4 [177]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +11.6%
Milwaukee Bucks	81		Comeback	5.9 [142]		LVP	Sam Cassell (MIL): -40.6%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Harpring	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.03	0.02	10	64%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Derrick Coleman	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	13	53%	0.05	1	-0.02	10	80%	0.04
Derrick McKey	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Corie Blount	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Snow	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16,-0.03,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	9	50%	0.14	3	-0.19	2	100%	0.04
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	11	41%	-0.04	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02
Speedy Claxton	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	5	17%	-0.07	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Allen Iverson	-0.38	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.28,-0.28,-0.2,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.15,-0.25,-0.45,-0.45,-0.38	-0.17	-0.20	0.01	30	38%	-0.08	4	-0.30	5	100%	0.04

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.06	-0.00	10	65%	0.16	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mark Pope	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	2	60%	0.03	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	9	55%	0.01	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.11	-0.08	-0.01	23	41%	-0.09	3	-0.09	3	67%	-0.01
Glenn Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.23	-0.23	-0.16	-0.10	-0.03	20	42%	-0.05	6	-0.18	3	67%	-0.01
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.28,-0.41,-0.41	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.01	11	43%	-0.10	4	-0.30	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	3.4	29.6	22.8	30.3	3.4	38.9	150.6
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI +7.1%

PHI +23.5%

PHI +5.1%

PHI +14.6%

MIL -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	MIL	NBA	PHI	MIL	NBA
this game	16.0	16.3	15.6	96.6	91.0	102.3
season	15.9	15.3		99.3	104.7
opponent	16.0	15.6		105.1	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	17.7	14.5	17.0	15.0	16.0
MIL	15.8	16.1	16.5	16.9	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Snow	69	69	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.50	1	4	-3	16.4	14.6	1.77	16.4	16.2	0.11
Matt Harpring	61	64	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.42	3	2	1	17.1	13.7	3.37	16.9	14.8	2.08
Dikembe Mutombo	74	74	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.35	4	1	3	16.6	13.2	3.39	16.8	14.1	2.65
Derrick Coleman	74	74	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.35	3	2	1	16.4	14.4	1.95	16.5	15.3	1.21
Allen Iverson	86	86	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.34	3	2	1	16.2	11.7	4.51	16.1	22.3	-6.21
Derrick McKey	39	37	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.08	7	-2	9	14.0	17.6	-3.65	14.9	17.3	-2.43
Speedy Claxton	24	24	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.09	4	1	3	13.7	16.9	-3.11	16.4	16.3	0.05
Corie Blount	18	17	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.01	0	5	-5	13.9	16.5	-2.60	15.3	16.6	-1.29

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Thomas	25	25	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.10	2	-7	9	14.6	17.0	-2.42	13.1	17.2	-4.04
Joel Przybilla	33	36	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.09	-2	-3	1	15.5	16.9	-1.40	15.6	16.3	-0.64
Darvin Ham	10	11	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.01	0	-5	5	14.8	16.5	-1.73	13.2	16.4	-3.24
Michael Redd	32	32	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.05	-3	-2	-1	14.7	17.3	-2.62	14.7	16.8	-2.08
Mark Pope	2	1	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	-3	1	3.5	16.6	-13.13	0.0	16.2	-16.20
Ray Allen	72	72	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.40	0	-5	5	16.2	17.1	-0.96	16.0	16.3	-0.34
Ervin Johnson	52	49	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.38	-4	-1	-3	17.7	14.5	3.21	17.5	14.2	3.26
Anthony Mason	79	78	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.37	-5	0	-5	16.5	14.8	1.73	16.4	13.2	3.24
Sam Cassell	73	72	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.37	-7	2	-9	16.8	14.2	2.54	16.4	14.4	2.06
Glenn Robinson	67	69	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.51	-4	-1	-3	17.3	13.5	3.77	16.7	13.5	3.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.66,0.57,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.61,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.69,0.63,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.71,0.66,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 101, DET 96	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.74,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.74,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.63,0.53,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.55,0.43,0.28,0	92.2%
MIA 97, WAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.47,0.53,0.65,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.27,0	91.9%
OKC 103, PHI 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.59,0.56,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.62,0.52,0.6,0.72,0.74,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.58,0.59,0.81,0.67,0.62,0.64,0.55,0.27,0	91.5%