NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	104		Excitement	5.6 [695]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +12.4%
Denver Nuggets	97		Comeback	2.6 [706]		LVP	Voshon Lenard (DEN): -23.0%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.06	-0.03	20	60%	0.23	4	-0.10	3	33%	-0.02
Adrian Griffin	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.00	9	63%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Danny Manning	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	15	53%	0.07	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.03
Tim Hardaway	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.01	6	80%	0.08	3	-0.07	8	87%	0.01
Johnny Newman	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	4	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Steve Nash	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.02	15	57%	0.05	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.00	0.01	8	75%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.00	10	67%	0.08	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.01
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.10	-0.03	0.04	19	62%	0.04	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.03
Zendon Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.04	13	59%	0.01	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.03	0.04	10	45%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	7	29%	-0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.17	-0.06	-0.00	13	15%	-0.18	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	19.6	2.4	23.5	16.3	23.5	2.4	37.3	125.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +50.7%

DAL +3.1%

DAL +18.6%

DEN -19.8%

DEN -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DEN	NBA	DAL	DEN	NBA
this game	14.3	16.0	15.6	110.6	101.0	102.3
season	14.8	16.1		109.6	99.7
opponent	15.2	15.5		105.9	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.5	15.6	15.0	13.4	14.3
DEN	14.7	17.1	17.7	14.8	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eduardo Najera	49	51	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.14	11	-4	15	14.8	13.8	1.02	15.8	16.1	-0.31
Tim Hardaway	48	50	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.17	9	-2	11	13.9	14.7	-0.80	15.7	16.2	-0.52
Juwan Howard	71	72	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.37	2	5	-3	14.1	15.0	-0.83	15.7	16.9	-1.26
Adrian Griffin	78	79	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.22	7	0	7	14.4	13.7	0.70	16.3	14.4	1.89
Dirk Nowitzki	77	80	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.16	6	1	5	14.9	11.5	3.42	17.0	10.7	6.26
Danny Manning	23	23	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.07	6	1	5	15.2	14.1	1.12	17.8	15.4	2.39
Wang Zhi-zhi	17	18	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.09	10	-3	13	15.5	14.1	1.46	18.0	15.5	2.50
Steve Nash	73	73	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.31	-5	12	-17	13.9	16.0	-2.09	15.0	19.1	-4.16
Johnny Newman	34	34	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.12	-11	18	-29	12.8	15.2	-2.45	13.8	17.1	-3.32

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zendon Hamilton	11	12	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.01	-3	-4	1	19.3	15.5	3.73	17.9	13.8	4.11
James Posey	65	64	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.34	7	-14	21	15.7	16.6	-0.95	14.3	14.4	-0.15
Ryan Bowen	60	57	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.14	-2	-5	3	17.4	13.6	3.82	14.2	14.5	-0.35
George McCloud	36	37	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.26	0	-7	7	14.3	17.0	-2.71	13.8	14.7	-0.94
Avery Johnson	22	21	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.01	-10	3	-13	17.7	15.4	2.28	16.8	13.6	3.13
Calbert Cheaney	79	78	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.25	-2	-5	3	15.8	16.9	-1.11	15.1	10.4	4.69
Raef LaFrentz	68	65	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.08	-10	3	-13	15.9	16.2	-0.30	13.5	16.3	-2.81
Voshon Lenard	52	51	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.12	-9	2	-11	15.0	17.1	-2.03	13.6	15.2	-1.54
Nick Van Exel	87	85	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.29	-6	-1	-5	15.9	17.1	-1.26	14.0	17.9	-3.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.35,0.31,0.24,0.37,0.36,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.12,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 96, UTA 78	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.54,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.12,0.06,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%
LAC 111, MIA 99	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.35,0.3,0.22,0.15,0.11,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.1%
CHI 103, OKC 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.53,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.48,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.2,0.23,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,0.04,0	93.9%