NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	110		Excitement	8.0 [237]		MVP	Sam Cassell (MIL): +26.9%
Milwaukee Bucks	115		Comeback	17.6 [98]		LVP	Pat Garrity (ORL): -8.5%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Horace Grant	0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.08	0.08	0.00	10	68%	0.15	0	0.00	5	100%	0.05
Mike Miller	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.15	-0.03	0.04	18	69%	0.12	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Troy Hudson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.14,0.14,0.08	-0.02	0.09	-0.01	11	39%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	15	56%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Tracy McGrady	0.06	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.01	22	47%	0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.04
Don Reid	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	6	67%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	8	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jud Buechler	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	8	31%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,0.27	0.27	0.01	0.27	0.01	17	60%	0.35	3	-0.08	9	78%	0.08
Ray Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.08	0.13	-0.01	16	78%	0.39	6	-0.16	4	100%	0.02
Tim Thomas	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.06	0.01	14	63%	0.12	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.03
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	0.00	5	81%	0.09	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.05
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.01	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mark Pope	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.06	-0.06	0.01	10	62%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	0.02	-0.01	6	17%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	1.6	29.0	15.8	23.5	1.8	36.4	130.6
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +45.5%

MIL +15.7%

MIL +9.3%

ORL -24.0%

MIL +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIL	NBA	ORL	MIL	NBA
this game	16.8	14.0	15.6	117.0	123.7	102.3
season	14.6	15.3		104.6	104.7
opponent	16.0	15.8		105.1	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.4	17.0	17.3	18.7	16.8
MIL	14.4	15.0	14.0	12.7	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monty Williams	26	26	0.39	-0.89	1.29	0.13	9	-14	23	15.8	17.2	-1.39	13.7	14.1	-0.39
Andrew DeClercq	6	6	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.03	3	-8	11	24.3	16.3	8.07	15.5	13.9	1.59
Jud Buechler	12	11	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.08	-5	0	-5	21.2	16.1	5.13	15.5	13.8	1.64
Don Reid	28	29	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.07	-5	0	-5	19.0	15.8	3.12	13.2	14.4	-1.22
Mike Miller	72	72	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.13	-3	-2	-1	15.9	19.5	-3.56	14.3	13.1	1.12
Pat Garrity	69	69	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.42	0	-5	5	16.0	19.0	-3.03	13.8	14.7	-0.88
Troy Hudson	37	37	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.23	-7	2	-9	18.2	15.8	2.37	12.4	15.1	-2.67
Darrell Armstrong	71	69	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.44	0	-5	5	15.7	20.2	-4.56	14.5	12.7	1.81
Horace Grant	68	66	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.39	-2	-3	1	16.3	17.9	-1.58	14.7	12.4	2.21
Tracy McGrady	81	80	-0.83	0.33	-1.16	-0.39	-15	10	-25	17.2	13.9	3.31	13.9	14.8	-0.97

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Thomas	74	75	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.50	10	-5	15	14.1	13.8	0.28	16.6	17.4	-0.81
Ervin Johnson	34	37	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.57	7	-2	9	13.9	14.1	-0.11	18.4	15.7	2.69
Ray Allen	81	81	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.35	7	-2	9	14.0	14.3	-0.37	16.3	19.8	-3.56
Anthony Mason	74	76	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.40	5	0	5	14.4	12.6	1.80	16.3	18.6	-2.27
Sam Cassell	83	83	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.30	-5	10	-15	13.8	16.1	-2.34	16.8	16.5	0.36
Mark Pope	0	1	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	5	-5	0.0	14.0	-14.01	12.0	16.8	-4.83
Michael Redd	47	46	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.35	12	-7	19	14.0	14.0	-0.06	17.6	16.0	1.54
Joel Przybilla	29	30	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.01	-3	8	-11	14.3	13.9	0.49	16.0	17.2	-1.19
Darvin Ham	43	41	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.04	-8	13	-21	13.7	14.3	-0.54	17.1	16.5	0.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.43,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.28,0.18,0.13,0.16,0.21,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.29,0.22,0.45,0.55,0.09,0.23,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 116, LAL 118	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.35,0.34,0.24,0.26,0.21,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.13,0.15,0.27,0.32,0.45,0.43,0.27,1	90.8%
DAL 94, DEN 95	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.5,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.31,0.41,0.23,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.24,0.33,0.45,0.29,0.23,0.26,1	90.6%
GSW 108, CLE 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.33,0.4,0.32,0.32,0.26,0.32,0.39,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.32,0.22,0.13,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.17,0.29,0.22,0.31,0.37,0.43,0.17,1	90.4%