NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	116		Excitement	5.7 [658]		MVP	Steve Nash (DAL): +26.5%
Atlanta Hawks	107		Comeback	1.4 [797]		LVP	Hanno Mottola (ATL): -14.1%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Nash	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.19	0.06	-0.01	13	94%	0.31	4	-0.04	5	80%	0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0.21	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.02	0.02	22	70%	0.21	0	0.00	13	77%	0.01
Tim Hardaway	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.11	0.03	-0.02	13	69%	0.19	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Juwan Howard	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	8	42%	-0.08	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.06
Johnny Newman	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	14	32%	-0.09	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.14,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.13	-0.03	0.01	23	73%	0.24	5	-0.15	17	76%	-0.01
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.01	8	56%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Cal Bowdler	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.04	-0.01	14	66%	0.11	4	-0.12	4	75%	0.01
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	5	44%	-0.04	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Dion Glover	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	0.00	10	20%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	-0.02	-0.03	17	47%	-0.01	5	-0.11	6	83%	0.03
Hanno Mottola	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	5	0%	-0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	1.8	29.0	15.8	30.1	1.8	25.4	127.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +42.4%

ATL -6.1%

ATL -11.3%

DAL +22.2%

DAL +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	ATL	NBA	DAL	ATL	NBA
this game	14.6	14.5	15.6	117.2	108.1	102.3
season	14.8	15.5		109.6	99.7
opponent	15.2	15.5		103.9	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.7	14.2	12.9	17.2	14.6
ATL	18.0	12.0	13.8	14.7	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Nash	89	88	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.16	20	-11	31	14.3	17.5	-3.19	14.6	13.6	0.92
Adrian Griffin	83	82	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.20	15	-6	21	14.4	15.7	-1.25	14.4	14.7	-0.30
Dirk Nowitzki	99	99	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.24	9	0	9	14.6	0.0	14.64	14.5	0.0	14.45
Juwan Howard	68	69	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.09	13	-4	17	13.8	16.5	-2.78	14.7	13.9	0.80
Johnny Newman	30	31	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.06	3	6	-3	14.5	14.7	-0.15	15.1	14.1	0.98
Tim Hardaway	51	51	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.25	-4	13	-17	15.5	13.7	1.80	13.4	15.6	-2.19
Greg Buckner	28	29	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.03	1	8	-7	14.2	14.8	-0.64	14.9	14.3	0.63
Wang Zhi-zhi	14	14	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	10	-11	13.9	14.8	-0.82	12.4	14.8	-2.36
Eduardo Najera	33	32	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.21	-11	20	-31	17.2	13.3	3.91	15.3	14.0	1.27

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cal Bowdler	23	24	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.14	4	-13	17	12.8	15.0	-2.18	14.0	14.9	-0.90
Hanno Mottola	21	21	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	-5	1	14.2	14.5	-0.34	13.6	14.9	-1.29
Jacque Vaughn	66	66	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.34	7	-16	23	13.0	17.3	-4.32	15.0	14.0	1.00
Mark Strickland	71	72	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.33	4	-13	17	13.5	17.0	-3.50	14.8	14.3	0.52
DerMarr Johnson	28	27	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.09	-13	4	-17	17.0	13.5	3.50	14.3	14.8	-0.52
Jason Terry	93	94	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.23	-3	-6	3	14.5	13.2	1.37	14.8	10.8	4.04
Nazr Mohammed	82	81	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.21	-6	-3	-3	14.5	14.4	0.05	14.7	14.2	0.57
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	72	72	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.12	-12	3	-15	15.1	12.9	2.20	15.0	13.6	1.49
Dion Glover	39	38	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	0.09	-22	13	-35	16.7	13.0	3.69	13.6	15.3	-1.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.39,0.3,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.29,0.26,0.15,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.05,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 134, NOP 120	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.49,0.52,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.2,0.31,0.24,0.16,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.5%
HOU 79, SEA 66	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.54,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.26,0.17,0.28,0.27,0.19,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.4%
CLE 109, NJN 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.42,0.33,0.26,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.11,0.12,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.0%