NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	85		Excitement	6.8 [451]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +27.7%
Golden State Warriors	79		Comeback	4.2 [245]		LVP	Antawn Jamison (GSW): -26.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.28	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.01	0.22	-0.04	22	54%	0.30	2	-0.02	8	62%	-0.01
Kendall Gill	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11	0.03	0.06	-0.03	3	87%	0.12	1	-0.00	2	50%	0.00
Jim Jackson	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.00	11	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Alonzo Mourning	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	7	83%	0.13	4	-0.11	4	75%	-0.00
Vladimir Stepania	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Eddie House	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.01	-0.00	5	0%	-0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.15,-0.19,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.04	0.02	6	50%	-0.02	4	-0.13	4	100%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.08	-0.00	10	45%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	75%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.08	0.04	-0.03	6	47%	0.05	3	-0.06	5	80%	-0.00
Dean Oliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	0.05	19	49%	-0.02	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.01
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	6	33%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	0.00	6	50%	-0.03	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	8	47%	-0.06	3	-0.08	1	0%	-0.02
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.19,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.13	-0.14	-0.01	14	47%	-0.00	6	-0.26	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	2.6	31.1	15.6	23.4	2.6	35.1	136.4
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +59.9%

GSW -10.1%

GSW -30.2%

MIA +31.4%

GSW -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	GSW	NBA	MIA	GSW	NBA
this game	16.5	15.9	15.6	96.6	87.8	102.3
season	16.5	14.7		96.6	100.7
opponent	15.1	15.8		106.2	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.7	18.9	16.2	14.3	16.5
GSW	16.1	13.2	18.0	16.4	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	55	58	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.23	17	-11	28	16.9	15.8	1.10	17.1	13.7	3.46
LaPhonso Ellis	60	60	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.40	9	-3	12	16.6	16.1	0.49	14.9	17.8	-2.82
Kendall Gill	45	44	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.27	13	-7	20	14.8	18.2	-3.43	15.5	16.2	-0.67
Eddie Jones	74	77	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.35	10	-4	14	16.6	15.8	0.82	16.0	15.5	0.50
Rod Strickland	59	61	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.50	5	1	4	16.6	16.2	0.35	15.7	16.2	-0.47
Chris Gatling	28	29	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	6	-6	17.5	16.0	1.50	15.1	16.3	-1.21
Vladimir Stepania	14	13	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.07	-1	7	-8	18.1	16.2	1.98	17.7	15.6	2.11
Eddie House	24	24	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.12	-1	7	-8	16.7	16.4	0.37	16.0	15.8	0.21
Brian Grant	26	28	-0.31	0.81	-1.11	-0.04	-9	15	-24	17.2	16.2	1.01	15.1	16.3	-1.19
Jim Jackson	55	56	-0.35	0.85	-1.19	0.04	-13	19	-32	15.6	18.0	-2.44	16.3	15.2	1.10

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Dampier	29	30	0.14	-0.64	0.77	0.11	1	-7	8	15.9	15.9	0.06	16.8	16.3	0.54
Dean Oliver	23	24	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.10	1	-7	8	15.9	15.9	-0.03	16.7	16.4	0.26
Troy Murphy	16	17	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.03	0	-6	6	16.7	15.7	0.97	17.8	16.2	1.60
Chris Mills	43	43	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-5	4	14.1	17.5	-3.35	15.8	17.1	-1.30
Bob Sura	42	42	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.03	-5	-1	-4	14.4	17.2	-2.78	15.3	17.5	-2.19
Jason Richardson	52	51	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.38	2	-8	10	16.5	15.0	1.49	15.9	17.2	-1.28
Antawn Jamison	76	74	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.36	-4	-2	-2	15.5	18.1	-2.67	16.6	16.0	0.57
Danny Fortson	55	52	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.34	-6	0	-6	16.5	14.9	1.55	17.3	15.2	2.08
Adonal Foyle	47	43	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.25	-11	5	-16	17.8	13.8	3.97	17.0	16.0	0.93
Larry Hughes	67	64	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.42	-7	1	-8	15.9	15.9	0.03	16.4	16.7	-0.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.61,0.55,0.51,0.46,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.63,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.77,0.64,0.71,0.47,0.25,0.11,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 86, NYK 78	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.69,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.63,0.46,0.54,0.45,0.22,0.09,0.02,0	92.4%
MIA 89, DET 78	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.76,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.54,0.38,0.23,0.1,0,0	91.1%
TOR 103, CHA 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.74,0.66,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.47,0.59,0.47,0.39,0.16,0.14,0.18,0	91.0%