NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	97		Excitement	8.5 [174]		MVP	Kerry Kittles (NJN): +49.3%
New Jersey Nets	99		Comeback	1.6 [570]		LVP	David Robinson (SAS): -16.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Porter	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.05	-0.00	9	70%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.05
Steven Smith	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.2,0.04	-0.06	0.09	-0.02	10	36%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.04	0.08	-0.05	-0.01	16	67%	0.09	2	-0.05	8	87%	-0.03
Tony Parker	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	5	75%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Antonio Daniels	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.09,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.04	0.00	12	62%	0.07	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Charles Smith	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	9	44%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.14	-0.06	-0.07	0.01	8	37%	-0.06	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.13	-0.04	-0.01	4	31%	-0.10	2	-0.06	8	62%	-0.03

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kerry Kittles	0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.49	0.49	0.17	0.33	0.01	11	92%	0.53	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.06
Todd MacCulloch	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.07	0.01	11	69%	0.18	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.07
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.00	6	71%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jason Kidd	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	14	53%	0.04	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	0.01	-0.01	19	42%	-0.01	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	1	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.13	0.00	-0.02	16	25%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Lucious Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	6	44%	-0.04	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.7	1.8	27.4	14.7	21.1	2.5	33.5	121.6
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +29.0%

NJN +8.3%

NJN +15.7%

SAS -9.7%

NJN +6.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	NJN	NBA	SAS	NJN	NBA
this game	15.2	14.2	15.6	99.0	101.0	102.3
season	15.8	14.7		104.3	101.4
opponent	16.0	15.7		98.0	98.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.0	15.4	15.5	16.0	15.2
NJN	13.2	12.8	15.8	15.3	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Rose	53	53	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.59	22	-24	46	14.5	16.0	-1.57	15.4	12.8	2.57
Tony Parker	12	14	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	2	-6	14.6	15.3	-0.67	11.9	14.6	-2.67
Terry Porter	60	58	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.49	13	-15	28	14.8	15.8	-1.05	14.6	13.6	1.04
Charles Smith	58	54	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.18	2	-4	6	15.2	15.1	0.08	14.4	14.0	0.47
Stephen Jackson	50	51	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.38	4	-6	10	14.8	15.6	-0.76	15.1	13.2	1.88
Antonio Daniels	40	42	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.07	-17	15	-32	15.9	14.7	1.19	13.6	14.7	-1.08
Steven Smith	74	75	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.37	-4	2	-6	15.4	14.3	1.11	13.9	15.3	-1.37
David Robinson	50	49	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	0.12	-21	19	-40	15.8	14.5	1.24	13.2	15.2	-2.06
Tim Duncan	93	94	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.41	-5	3	-8	15.3	13.6	1.66	14.1	17.2	-3.16

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Todd MacCulloch	64	64	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.41	11	-9	20	13.4	15.7	-2.24	15.9	13.8	2.11
Jason Kidd	78	80	0.61	-0.12	0.73	0.32	10	-8	18	13.6	16.6	-3.00	15.9	12.1	3.75
Kerry Kittles	67	65	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.50	1	1	0	14.4	13.9	0.50	14.7	16.1	-1.38
Kenyon Martin	78	78	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.52	-1	3	-4	13.8	15.6	-1.80	15.1	15.3	-0.22
Richard Jefferson	41	41	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.40	-3	5	-8	15.2	13.5	1.73	14.0	16.0	-1.93
Keith Van Horn	62	63	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.01	9	-7	16	13.5	15.5	-1.99	16.2	13.4	2.76
Lucious Harris	51	51	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.07	-7	9	-16	14.9	13.4	1.52	14.7	15.7	-1.02
Aaron Williams	23	23	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.03	-6	8	-14	16.2	13.6	2.56	12.9	15.9	-2.95
Jason Collins	26	25	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.03	-4	6	-10	15.7	13.7	1.96	14.9	15.3	-0.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.66,0.69,0.68,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.83,0.89,0.85,0.74,0.82,0.75,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.81,0.57,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 81, ATL 84	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.81,0.79,0.83,0.91,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.78,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.83,0.93,0.78,0.93,0.84,0.68,0.58,1	91.7%
UTA 85, HOU 89	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.65,0.66,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.63,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.84,0.89,0.85,0.84,0.92,0.84,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.71,0.73,0.83,0.85,0.88,0.85,0.72,0.57,0.58,1	91.2%
CHI 108, CHA 113	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.67,0.67,0.74,0.71,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.78,0.7,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.82,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.83,0.68,0.78,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.79,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.71,0.57,0.73,1	90.4%