NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	86		Excitement	2.7 [1187]		MVP	Tim Thomas (MIL): +17.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	105		Comeback	1.1 [1039]		LVP	Michael Jordan (WAS): -10.5%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyrone Nesby	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	0.00	0.05	6	83%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jahidi White	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	5	58%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Kwame Brown	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	6	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Simmons	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	3	57%	-0.01	1	0.00	8	50%	-0.02
Etan Thomas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	0.02	11	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Tyronn Lue	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.00	0.04	8	55%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Popeye Jones	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	-0.00	-0.04	10	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hubert Davis	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	9	30%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Jordan	-0.10	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.17	-0.00	-0.07	24	42%	-0.01	6	-0.09	4	50%	-0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Thomas	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.19	0.00	0.02	13	86%	0.18	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.14	0.00	0.03	19	67%	0.12	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.02	12	58%	0.06	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Pope	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	33%	-0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	1	75%	-0.00	3	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	13	44%	0.01	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	18	47%	-0.02	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	1.7	26.6	16.8	25.5	2.5	23.5	118.8
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +37.0%

MIL +2.4%

MIL +2.2%

MIL +8.1%

MIL +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIL	NBA	WAS	MIL	NBA
this game	16.6	15.8	15.6	96.6	118.0	102.3
season	16.5	15.3		102.2	104.7
opponent	16.0	15.3		105.1	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	16.7	14.5	17.4	17.9	16.6
MIL	15.2	16.8	14.7	16.4	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bobby Simmons	21	21	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.12	4	-23	27	17.9	16.2	1.71	16.4	15.6	0.81
Kwame Brown	24	24	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.13	4	-23	27	18.2	16.0	2.15	16.7	15.4	1.24
Etan Thomas	11	11	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-16	13	15.2	16.8	-1.61	16.5	15.7	0.89
Tyronn Lue	40	41	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.09	-4	-15	11	16.4	16.8	-0.40	16.5	15.1	1.39
Brendan Haywood	45	46	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.01	-8	-11	3	16.8	16.3	0.50	16.8	14.7	2.11
Jahidi White	44	43	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.07	-11	-8	-3	16.3	16.8	-0.50	14.7	16.8	-2.11
Tyrone Nesby	38	38	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.08	-6	-13	7	16.6	16.6	0.02	16.5	15.2	1.24
Chris Whitney	52	52	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.13	-15	-4	-11	16.7	16.5	0.19	15.3	16.4	-1.14
Michael Jordan	62	62	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.13	-16	-3	-13	16.3	17.2	-0.85	15.5	16.4	-0.98
Hubert Davis	54	53	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.21	-20	1	-21	16.5	16.8	-0.34	15.2	16.5	-1.28
Popeye Jones	54	54	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.20	-20	1	-21	16.2	17.2	-1.04	15.2	16.6	-1.42

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Mason	71	72	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.21	23	-4	27	15.9	15.4	0.47	17.0	14.8	2.19
Tim Thomas	66	65	0.45	0.05	0.39	-0.11	19	0	19	15.3	17.2	-1.90	17.4	14.4	2.98
Ray Allen	61	61	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.07	14	5	9	15.3	16.9	-1.59	16.8	16.1	0.66
Ervin Johnson	38	37	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.19	3	16	-13	17.7	14.3	3.35	16.7	16.5	0.14
Sam Cassell	57	58	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.02	10	9	1	15.7	15.9	-0.22	16.8	16.2	0.62
Michael Redd	39	39	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.03	7	12	-5	16.6	15.1	1.52	15.4	17.5	-2.06
Darvin Ham	37	37	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.01	7	12	-5	17.0	14.9	2.16	16.2	16.9	-0.74
Jason Caffey	24	25	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.03	7	12	-5	16.0	15.7	0.27	16.2	16.7	-0.55
Joel Przybilla	40	40	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.03	4	15	-11	14.0	17.2	-3.16	16.4	16.8	-0.40
Mark Pope	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	18	-17	12.8	15.9	-3.14	13.0	16.8	-3.76
Rafer Alston	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	19	-19	14.0	15.9	-1.91	14.3	16.8	-2.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.75,0.84,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 101, DAL 127	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.8,0.79,0.81,0.89,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.5%
MIN 117, DAL 131	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.73,0.77,0.76,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.5%
PHI 65, BOS 89	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.4%