NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	96		Excitement	5.2 [761]		MVP	Dion Glover (ATL): +21.3%
Atlanta Hawks	100		Comeback	37.0 [45]		LVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): -19.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	-0.00	0.07	-0.03	18	55%	0.13	2	-0.03	8	75%	0.01
Jim Jackson	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	13	54%	0.05	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.04	-0.03	0.01	10	64%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kendall Gill	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	8	43%	-0.04	1	-0.01	7	57%	-0.03
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	3	40%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Brian Grant	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.07	-0.03	14	50%	-0.03	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Alonzo Mourning	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.19	-0.06	-0.17	-0.04	10	54%	0.04	3	-0.23	6	0%	-0.05

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dion Glover	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.01	0.18	-0.03	13	53%	0.22	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.01
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.14	0.14	0.07	0.10	0.03	20	64%	0.20	3	-0.07	10	100%	0.04
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.15,0.15,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	6	67%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	2	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cal Bowdler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	5	50%	0.02	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Slater	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hanno Mottola	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	3	60%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.04	19	44%	-0.07	2	-0.04	12	75%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.3	28.5	15.4	24.4	1.8	33.0	129.8
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +31.6%

ATL +7.2%

MIA -6.9%

ATL +20.9%

MIA -2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	15.7	15.0	15.6	102.1	106.4	102.3
season	16.5	15.5		96.6	99.7
opponent	15.2	15.8		103.9	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.2	15.5	15.0	18.2	15.7
ATL	15.8	14.0	15.0	15.2	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Gatling	33	33	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.23	-9	5	-14	14.7	16.2	-1.44	13.0	16.1	-3.10
Kendall Gill	31	32	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.25	-13	9	-22	15.1	15.9	-0.84	12.2	16.4	-4.28
Brian Grant	76	74	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.53	6	-10	16	15.6	16.0	-0.42	15.5	13.1	2.32
Rod Strickland	63	62	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.64	9	-13	22	15.9	15.1	0.84	16.4	12.2	4.28
LaPhonso Ellis	33	34	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.30	-23	19	-42	15.9	15.5	0.34	12.9	16.1	-3.19
Alonzo Mourning	66	68	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.53	5	-9	14	15.7	15.5	0.23	15.5	13.5	2.04
Jim Jackson	89	90	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.46	2	-6	8	15.3	21.2	-5.85	15.3	7.7	7.55
Eddie Jones	79	77	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.54	3	-7	10	16.3	12.1	4.20	15.4	13.1	2.27

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DerMarr Johnson	43	43	1.01	-0.51	1.52	0.25	26	-22	48	14.3	15.6	-1.29	16.5	14.9	1.61
Dion Glover	79	78	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.27	15	-11	26	14.5	17.3	-2.80	15.8	14.7	1.10
Nazr Mohammed	73	74	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.47	2	2	0	15.8	12.2	3.53	16.4	13.0	3.38
Jason Terry	90	89	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.46	-1	5	-6	15.1	11.5	3.63	16.0	10.2	5.77
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	62	64	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.61	-7	11	-18	15.4	14.2	1.10	15.5	16.0	-0.45
Reggie Slater	10	9	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.06	3	1	2	11.6	15.4	-3.78	13.6	15.9	-2.33
Cal Bowdler	18	17	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	4	-4	12.6	15.5	-2.93	14.9	15.8	-0.95
Mark Strickland	16	15	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	-0.07	1	3	-2	15.1	15.0	0.10	14.9	15.8	-0.94
Hanno Mottola	40	41	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.01	-7	11	-18	15.2	14.8	0.43	14.5	16.6	-2.12
Jacque Vaughn	39	40	-0.33	0.83	-1.17	0.02	-12	16	-28	15.9	14.3	1.57	14.9	16.2	-1.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.19,0.14,0.04,0.07,0.19,0.21,0.43,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 100, TOR 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.38,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.23,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.2,0.16,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.18,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.13,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.18,0.21,0.32,0.21,0.08,0.12,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.58,1	91.4%
LAL 105, HOU 107	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.38,0.29,0.3,0.19,0.22,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.31,0.28,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.12,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.12,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.33,0.72,1	91.4%
OKC 99, LAC 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.28,0.37,0.3,0.26,0.3,0.27,0.33,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.11,0.16,0.21,0.17,0.25,0.15,0.18,0.15,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.28,0.32,0.58,1	91.3%