NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	110		Excitement	8.3 [207]		MVP	Sam Cassell (MIL): +43.3%
Houston Rockets	115		Comeback	2.3 [222]		LVP	Kelvin Cato (HOU): -9.0%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Cassell	0.43	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.5,0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.01	20	58%	0.43	0	0.00	8	62%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0.19	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.19	0.11	0.08	0.00	21	63%	0.22	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Michael Redd	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.02	12	62%	0.15	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Darvin Ham	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	71%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	12	46%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	11	46%	-0.08	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.06

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Walt Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.35,0.35	0.35	0.11	0.24	0.00	19	58%	0.35	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Griffin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.34	0.34	0.13	0.22	0.01	18	63%	0.34	0	0.00	2	100%	0.06
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.31	0.31	0.18	0.12	-0.01	23	70%	0.37	2	-0.06	10	100%	0.06
Moochie Norris	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	13	63%	0.14	4	-0.11	4	75%	-0.02
Tierre Brown	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Langhi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Terence Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kelvin Cato	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	5	45%	-0.08	1	-0.01	10	50%	-0.11

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.7	2.5	24.5	16.4	21.6	2.4	38.2	127.3
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +28.2%

HOU +10.5%

HOU +18.2%

MIL -8.0%

HOU +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	HOU	NBA	MIL	HOU	NBA
this game	13.7	17.5	15.6	119.6	123.7	102.3
season	15.3	16.8		104.7	100.9
opponent	15.2	16.0		106.4	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	12.0	12.5	17.0	13.3	13.7
HOU	18.0	18.8	15.7	17.2	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darvin Ham	41	40	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.18	7	-12	19	14.2	13.3	0.92	18.7	16.5	2.19
Michael Redd	50	50	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.04	-6	1	-7	13.1	14.4	-1.28	17.3	17.6	-0.28
Joel Przybilla	22	22	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.07	-7	2	-9	12.5	14.0	-1.53	17.6	17.4	0.18
Sam Cassell	72	73	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.22	0	-5	5	13.7	13.7	-0.05	17.2	18.2	-1.02
Rafer Alston	20	20	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.14	-5	0	-5	13.7	13.7	0.05	18.2	17.2	1.02
Ervin Johnson	37	37	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.27	-2	-3	1	14.2	13.3	0.93	18.7	16.6	2.03
Tim Thomas	60	62	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.54	3	-8	11	13.8	13.3	0.49	17.2	17.9	-0.68
Glenn Robinson	77	78	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.23	-8	3	-11	13.6	14.1	-0.48	16.9	20.5	-3.67
Anthony Mason	81	83	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.32	-7	2	-9	13.8	12.8	0.96	17.1	20.6	-3.53

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Walt Williams	84	82	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.34	9	-4	13	17.3	18.9	-1.59	13.7	13.0	0.74
Moochie Norris	84	82	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.34	9	-4	13	17.3	18.9	-1.59	13.7	13.0	0.74
Eddie Griffin	84	83	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.29	10	-5	15	16.9	22.2	-5.28	13.8	12.3	1.47
Cuttino Mobley	93	92	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.35	5	0	5	17.5	0.0	17.45	13.7	0.0	13.66
Kelvin Cato	80	78	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.30	6	-1	7	17.3	18.6	-1.35	14.0	11.9	2.05
Kevin Willis	13	14	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.05	-1	6	-7	18.6	17.3	1.35	11.9	14.0	-2.05
Dan Langhi	7	7	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	9	-13	20.1	17.2	2.91	13.7	13.7	0.06
Terence Morris	11	12	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	10	-15	20.8	17.0	3.82	12.1	13.9	-1.82
Tierre Brown	9	10	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.02	-4	9	-13	18.9	17.3	1.59	13.0	13.7	-0.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.58,0.55,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.38,0.41,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.56,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.63,0.56,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 72, BOS 76	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.7,0.72,0.72,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.71,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.41,0.54,0.57,0.67,0.42,0.58,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.57,0.42,1	91.3%
CHA 95, MEM 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.59,0.61,0.68,0.64,0.55,0.96,1	91.1%
UTA 75, POR 81	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.72,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.62,0.67,0.81,0.7,0.65,0.54,0.86,0.79,0.66,0.73,1	91.1%