NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	111		Excitement	8.4 [179]		MVP	Larry Hughes (GSW): +11.2%
Golden State Warriors	108		Comeback	1.5 [621]		LVP	Gary Payton (SEA): -48.7%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Art Long	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	6	69%	0.09	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.02
Earl Watson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.03	-0.02	11	57%	0.08	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.03
Brent Barry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.11	-0.10	-0.00	9	83%	0.10	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.18,-0.18,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04	-0.11	-0.01	-0.08	13	47%	-0.01	3	-0.03	12	50%	-0.02
Rashard Lewis	-0.11	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,-0.18,-0.27,-0.27,-0.18,-0.18,-0.11	0.08	-0.19	-0.00	20	59%	-0.02	1	-0.09	1	0%	-0.01
Gary Payton	-0.49	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.31,-0.49	-0.21	-0.34	-0.07	21	38%	-0.41	5	-0.07	10	80%	0.03

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Larry Hughes	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.03,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.02	0.11	0.01	18	56%	0.14	2	-0.03	7	86%	0.02
Chris Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	58%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02	0.02	-0.08	0.09	-0.02	10	38%	0.05	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.03
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8	47%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Jason Richardson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.17,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.05	0.01	14	73%	0.26	5	-0.29	5	40%	0.01
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	9	59%	-0.01	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.00	0.00	6	36%	-0.03	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.21,-0.16,-0.22	-0.22	-0.11	-0.10	0.01	21	39%	-0.16	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	21.4	2.5	23.4	16.6	26.0	2.4	36.5	1.5	20.7	151.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	1.7	16.7	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW -44.4%

SEA +21.6%

SEA +57.3%

SEA +19.4%

GSW -3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	GSW	NBA	SEA	GSW	NBA
this game	15.9	16.2	15.6	112.1	109.1	102.3
season	16.0	14.7		106.3	100.7
opponent	15.1	15.8		106.2	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SEA	14.4	11.0	18.2	20.9	15.9	15.9
GSW	16.9	19.8	16.1	13.4	12.8	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Desmond Mason	71	70	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.33	5	-2	7	15.9	16.0	-0.11	15.4	18.1	-2.64
Vin Baker	73	72	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.26	4	-1	5	17.0	12.8	4.22	16.2	16.1	0.07
Vladimir Radmanovic	29	29	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.10	8	-5	13	11.6	17.7	-6.08	17.2	15.8	1.42
Earl Watson	36	36	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.14	6	-3	9	14.8	16.6	-1.79	17.2	15.6	1.65
Rashard Lewis	80	82	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.40	-3	6	-9	16.4	14.1	2.31	15.9	17.9	-2.03
Gary Payton	86	85	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.46	-7	10	-17	15.7	17.1	-1.33	16.0	17.6	-1.68
Art Long	44	44	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.15	-5	8	-13	16.2	15.7	0.43	17.4	15.3	2.13
Brent Barry	66	66	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.19	4	-1	5	16.8	14.2	2.56	16.5	15.6	0.89

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Fortson	69	69	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.25	9	-12	21	15.8	17.2	-1.43	17.1	13.3	3.81
Adonal Foyle	31	29	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-2	1	17.6	15.6	2.01	16.7	15.6	1.14
Bob Sura	51	49	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.36	3	-6	9	15.5	16.9	-1.35	14.8	17.0	-2.14
Larry Hughes	78	78	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.38	3	-6	9	15.9	17.5	-1.62	17.2	11.3	5.82
Jason Richardson	78	78	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.32	1	-4	5	15.7	17.9	-2.16	16.7	13.0	3.71
Chris Mills	24	26	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.11	-16	13	-29	18.7	15.4	3.25	11.5	17.5	-5.99
Antawn Jamison	85	86	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.34	-1	-2	1	15.9	18.0	-2.09	16.1	14.7	1.41
Troy Murphy	45	46	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.07	-11	8	-19	17.7	14.9	2.77	14.8	16.9	-2.16
Mookie Blaylock	34	34	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.36	-2	-1	-1	15.6	16.5	-0.85	14.3	16.8	-2.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.18,0.23,0.16,0.13,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.1,0.42,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.1,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 123, OKC 114	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.24,0.24,0.27,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.27,0.27,0.19,0.14,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.02,0.54,0.45,0.37,0.23,0.04,0	90.0%
TOR 120, WAS 116	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.32,0.31,0.23,0.17,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.07,0.09,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.12,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.12,0.21,0.19,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.23,0.16,0.54,0.53,0.29,0.06,0.02,0	89.0%
DET 112, CLE 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.23,0.16,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.15,0.24,0.35,0.26,0.23,0.14,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.18,0.29,0.15,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.16,0	88.4%