NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	83		Excitement	2.4 [1209]		MVP	Gary Payton (SEA): +9.9%
Seattle SuperSonics	97		Comeback	1.0 [687]		LVP	Tim Thomas (MIL): -7.3%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Cassell	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.01	12	56%	0.04	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	2	0%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Pope	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00	4	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	3	33%	0.00	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	-0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.06	0.00	0.09	18	65%	0.02	4	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Anthony Mason	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.00	-0.04	2	17%	-0.03	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Redd	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.14	-0.00	-0.09	11	29%	-0.02	3	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00
Tim Thomas	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.06	-0.02	0.11	18	61%	-0.02	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.01

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.00	0.01	-0.09	21	48%	0.10	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.12	0.00	0.06	9	89%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.00	-0.06	11	46%	0.04	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Predrag Drobnjak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	80%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Art Long	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	37%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	8	65%	0.05	4	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Vin Baker	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.07	-0.00	-0.07	12	61%	0.05	6	-0.05	7	71%	0.01
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	5	20%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	57.7	1.7	26.0	15.8	22.2	2.3	26.3	152.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +34.7%

SEA +7.5%

MIL -0.3%

SEA +6.8%

SEA +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SEA	NBA	MIL	SEA	NBA
this game	16.0	16.4	15.6	93.3	109.0	102.3
season	15.3	16.0		104.7	106.3
opponent	15.8	16.0		103.9	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.6	17.9	17.4	11.4	16.0
SEA	14.4	17.2	16.0	17.8	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Pope	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-18	22	13.0	16.1	-3.06	18.3	16.3	2.00
Joel Przybilla	0	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-14	14	0.0	16.0	-15.96	18.0	16.4	1.61
Jason Caffey	30	31	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.14	2	-16	18	14.6	16.6	-1.99	17.2	16.0	1.16
Rafer Alston	31	32	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.05	-3	-11	8	14.7	16.6	-1.86	15.7	16.8	-1.07
Ervin Johnson	26	26	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.06	-9	-5	-4	17.7	15.2	2.45	16.6	16.3	0.30
Darvin Ham	49	48	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.12	-4	-10	6	13.7	18.8	-5.12	17.0	15.7	1.34
Anthony Mason	58	57	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	0.06	-14	0	-14	17.5	13.1	4.44	15.4	18.3	-2.93
Michael Redd	45	47	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.01	-12	-2	-10	15.4	16.5	-1.03	15.7	17.2	-1.44
Sam Cassell	58	57	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.04	-11	-3	-8	16.6	14.7	1.86	16.8	15.7	1.07
Tim Thomas	72	70	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.06	-15	1	-16	16.4	14.2	2.13	16.5	16.2	0.31
Ray Allen	73	73	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.15	-8	-6	-2	16.2	14.7	1.55	16.7	15.1	1.64

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Payton	69	69	0.57	-0.07	0.65	-0.16	25	-11	36	16.1	17.5	-1.48	16.4	14.3	2.13
Rashard Lewis	67	69	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.04	13	1	12	16.6	16.0	0.60	15.5	17.5	-1.99
Desmond Mason	54	53	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.11	17	-3	20	17.3	15.1	2.22	16.4	15.4	1.00
Brent Barry	71	72	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.13	6	8	-2	16.5	16.2	0.23	16.0	15.6	0.45
Vin Baker	74	75	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.19	3	11	-8	16.4	16.6	-0.24	15.7	17.2	-1.49
Predrag Drobnjak	20	19	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.04	8	6	2	13.3	17.3	-3.94	18.8	15.2	3.60
Art Long	17	16	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.05	6	8	-2	17.1	16.2	0.88	16.7	15.8	0.97
Earl Watson	38	37	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.20	-3	17	-20	16.9	16.0	0.90	14.9	16.7	-1.82
Vladimir Radmanovic	35	35	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.23	-5	19	-24	16.3	16.5	-0.24	14.8	16.7	-1.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.7,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.72,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.74,0.85,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 71, UTA 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.69,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.72,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.67,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.81,0.86,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.2%
SAC 83, SEA 109	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.8,0.84,0.85,0.8,0.72,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.84,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
PHI 97, GSW 119	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.9%