NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	95		Excitement	4.3 [950]		MVP	Dale Davis (POR): +14.6%
Portland Trail Blazers	101		Comeback	2.4 [564]		LVP	Ruben Patterson (POR): -15.5%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11	0.14	-0.00	0.03	18	66%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Mark Pope	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.02	15	72%	0.10	6	-0.10	2	100%	0.00
Jason Caffey	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	4	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Rafer Alston	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	5	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	5	20%	-0.05
Ervin Johnson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Glenn Robinson	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.04	-0.02	0.08	17	57%	-0.05	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.02
Tim Thomas	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	11	42%	-0.05	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dale Davis	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.18	0.01	0.05	16	76%	0.15	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	-0.00	-0.03	21	55%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.00	10	69%	0.07	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Brunson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Barkley	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	11	57%	0.06	4	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Shawn Kemp	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	3	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.16	-0.03	-0.04	17	33%	-0.06	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	1.6	29.2	14.8	21.1	1.6	31.3	120.9
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +14.3%

POR +10.0%

POR +23.5%

MIL -3.0%

POR +5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	POR	NBA	MIL	POR	NBA
this game	16.4	18.5	15.6	115.9	121.7	102.3
season	15.3	16.0		104.7	105.0
opponent	15.6	16.0		102.2	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.1	18.1	15.8	15.0	16.4
POR	18.0	18.8	20.2	17.0	18.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rafer Alston	12	9	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.01	5	-11	16	15.2	16.7	-1.49	17.4	18.6	-1.14
Mark Pope	12	13	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.02	-4	-2	-2	19.6	15.9	3.68	16.2	18.9	-2.64
Ervin Johnson	49	47	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.12	-3	-3	0	16.8	15.8	0.99	17.6	19.6	-1.94
Anthony Mason	66	67	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.30	3	-9	12	15.5	20.4	-4.97	19.2	15.3	3.90
Tim Thomas	48	49	-0.28	-0.21	-0.07	-0.26	-1	-5	4	15.8	17.4	-1.61	19.6	16.8	2.87
Jason Caffey	23	24	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.09	-7	1	-8	18.7	15.6	3.08	18.2	18.6	-0.41
Ray Allen	70	72	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.37	0	-6	6	16.0	19.0	-3.00	18.3	19.5	-1.25
Glenn Robinson	64	65	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.18	-13	7	-20	17.2	13.6	3.69	18.0	20.0	-1.97
Sam Cassell	66	69	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.31	-10	4	-14	16.2	17.6	-1.40	18.7	17.3	1.41

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasheed Wallace	75	75	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.21	12	-6	18	18.4	19.1	-0.74	16.5	15.9	0.64
Ruben Patterson	71	70	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.23	10	-4	14	17.9	22.0	-4.14	16.0	18.8	-2.80
Dale Davis	69	68	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.23	9	-3	12	17.9	21.1	-3.14	16.5	16.1	0.44
Damon Stoudamire	68	64	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.38	2	4	-2	18.6	18.0	0.56	16.5	16.1	0.49
Bonzi Wells	70	69	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.35	-3	9	-12	18.6	17.8	0.73	16.2	17.8	-1.67
Steve Kerr	25	25	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.07	5	1	4	19.8	17.9	1.98	18.3	15.6	2.71
Rick Brunson	15	18	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.06	4	2	2	18.0	18.6	-0.56	16.1	16.5	-0.49
Erick Barkley	0	1	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	6	-6	0.0	18.5	-18.46	3.0	16.6	-13.60
Zach Randolph	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.03	-1	7	-8	18.7	18.4	0.32	17.0	16.4	0.61
Shawn Kemp	14	13	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.17	-8	14	-22	21.3	17.9	3.40	16.5	16.4	0.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.43,0.47,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.66,0.75,0.78,0.88,0.93,0.91,0.9,0.95,0.93,0.91,0.94,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.87,0.87,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.92,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 93, CLE 107	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.59,0.66,0.77,0.8,0.9,0.86,0.88,0.85,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.92,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%
DAL 84, ORL 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.78,0.78,0.86,0.88,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.89,0.85,0.78,0.85,0.82,0.8,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1	94.2%
SAS 105, UTA 113	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.86,0.88,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.89,0.86,0.89,0.89,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	94.1%