NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	98		Excitement	8.7 [132]		MVP	Derek Fisher (LAL): +30.1%
Los Angeles Lakers	105		Comeback	2.3 [894]		LVP	Shaquille O'Neal (LAL): -31.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.16,0.16	0.14	0.04	0.02	23	67%	0.33	2	-0.17	5	80%	-0.00
Avery Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawnelle Scott	-0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Scott Williams	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.01	-0.00	9	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	14	46%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	15	50%	0.01	4	-0.12	4	50%	-0.02
George McCloud	-0.29	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.29	-0.09	-0.19	0.00	12	46%	-0.18	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.02

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.09	0.21	0.00	8	87%	0.39	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.08	-0.00	3	83%	0.17	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	5	64%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.01	0.02	5	110%	0.14	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.19,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	12	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	8	44%	-0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.11,-0.09	-0.09	0.03	-0.12	-0.00	19	56%	-0.09	1	-0.00	7	71%	-0.03
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.35,-0.32	-0.32	-0.08	-0.25	-0.00	14	54%	-0.22	3	-0.10	13	31%	-0.30

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.5	26.2	16.7	24.0	1.8	30.3	126.7
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +55.4%

DEN -12.1%

DEN -3.7%

LAL +12.9%

DEN -2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAL	NBA	DEN	LAL	NBA
this game	16.6	16.7	15.6	112.6	122.1	102.3
season	16.1	15.3		99.7	106.9
opponent	15.4	15.2		99.8	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	19.7	14.6	13.9	18.8	16.6
LAL	17.2	18.1	15.5	16.3	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Avery Johnson	37	36	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	-3	-1	15.6	17.3	-1.66	17.1	16.5	0.62
Nick Van Exel	69	69	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.27	6	-13	19	16.6	16.6	0.02	16.4	17.8	-1.37
Shawnelle Scott	13	13	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.10	-8	1	-9	14.6	16.9	-2.30	21.7	15.8	5.86
Voshon Lenard	14	13	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.06	-11	4	-15	14.9	16.9	-1.96	16.0	16.8	-0.85
Ryan Bowen	21	21	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.09	-6	-1	-5	15.3	17.0	-1.70	17.7	16.4	1.25
Raef LaFrentz	76	74	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.27	-2	-5	3	16.7	15.5	1.28	16.3	19.6	-3.33
George McCloud	76	75	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.37	1	-8	9	16.6	16.5	0.14	16.8	16.5	0.31
James Posey	79	78	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.24	-9	2	-11	16.8	14.0	2.84	16.8	15.9	0.93
Scott Williams	53	53	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.39	-5	-2	-3	17.5	15.1	2.49	15.6	18.6	-3.01

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Horry	43	43	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.33	15	-8	23	15.7	17.8	-2.09	17.1	16.1	1.02
Devean George	36	36	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.26	17	-10	27	17.1	16.5	0.58	17.4	16.0	1.39
Derek Fisher	35	36	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.33	12	-5	17	17.4	16.3	1.10	17.4	16.0	1.44
Kobe Bryant	73	74	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.32	7	0	7	16.2	19.4	-3.14	16.2	18.5	-2.31
Shaquille O'Neal	63	65	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.34	5	2	3	16.2	18.1	-1.92	16.8	15.9	0.95
Mark Madsen	11	12	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.02	2	5	-3	15.6	16.9	-1.24	13.8	17.0	-3.18
Mitch Richmond	24	25	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	5	-3	17.7	16.4	1.31	16.3	16.7	-0.41
Rick Fox	44	44	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	-0.03	-7	14	-21	16.2	17.3	-1.06	16.5	16.6	-0.11
Lindsey Hunter	46	46	-0.28	0.78	-1.07	0.01	-10	17	-27	16.7	16.7	-0.01	16.0	17.2	-1.13
Samaki Walker	55	54	-0.33	0.83	-1.17	-0.10	-8	15	-23	18.3	13.8	4.51	16.5	16.7	-0.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.73,0.78,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.86,0.8,0.8,0.77,0.69,0.69,0.78,0.67,0.62,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.58,0.53,0.46,0.54,0.45,0.64,0.67,0.59,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 105, BKN 107	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.75,0.7,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.48,0.56,0.44,0.33,0.52,0.42,0.26,0.34,0.51,0.53,0.41,0.54,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.83,1	91.8%
MEM 88, SAS 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.86,0.86,0.82,0.75,0.79,0.72,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.31,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.28,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.75,0.71,0.68,0.58,1	91.2%
LAL 103, POR 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.67,0.66,0.73,0.76,0.78,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.41,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.47,0.38,0.58,0.7,0.65,0.73,0.68,0.54,0.68,0.84,1	91.2%