NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	103		Excitement	6.3 [559]		MVP	Jermaine O'Neal (IND): +20.3%
Indiana Pacers	110		Comeback	2.5 [790]		LVP	Michael Jordan (WAS): -17.5%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Christian Laettner	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.09	0.01	0.05	13	66%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Popeye Jones	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	7	57%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hubert Davis	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02	0.09	-0.00	0.07	13	75%	0.11	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Richard Hamilton	0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	19	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Etan Thomas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Jahidi White	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Chris Whitney	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	9	22%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	7	29%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Michael Jordan	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.11,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.16	-0.01	-0.00	26	37%	-0.07	3	-0.10	5	100%	0.03

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.11	0.10	0.01	19	63%	0.20	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.03
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.04	0.01	9	75%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.00	-0.01	6	86%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Jonathan Bender	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jeff Foster	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	14	43%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.11	0.03	-0.03	15	50%	0.08	5	-0.14	8	87%	0.02
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	0.02	15	47%	-0.00	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	0.00	10	32%	-0.07	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	3.5	26.3	19.4	23.4	3.4	34.6	134.1
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +44.6%

WAS -2.3%

IND +2.0%

IND +3.7%

IND +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	IND	NBA	WAS	IND	NBA
this game	15.8	13.9	15.6	106.2	113.4	102.3
season	16.5	15.3		102.2	101.6
opponent	15.4	15.3		100.9	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	15.7	15.9	16.5	15.1	15.8
IND	12.6	16.1	13.5	13.7	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Etan Thomas	8	7	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.02	2	-9	11	13.9	16.0	-2.10	13.4	13.9	-0.49
Kwame Brown	46	45	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.24	5	-12	17	15.5	16.1	-0.58	14.0	13.8	0.21
Popeye Jones	43	44	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.14	-2	-5	3	15.5	16.0	-0.53	13.6	14.2	-0.58
Hubert Davis	66	66	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.37	5	-12	17	15.6	16.3	-0.71	14.2	13.1	1.11
Chris Whitney	33	34	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.05	-11	4	-15	15.8	15.8	0.07	12.7	14.5	-1.82
Jahidi White	32	32	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.01	-12	5	-17	17.3	15.1	2.20	14.3	13.7	0.64
Christian Laettner	90	89	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.23	-4	-3	-1	16.0	13.6	2.41	14.3	9.7	4.51
Michael Jordan	81	81	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.17	-12	5	-17	15.8	15.9	-0.08	13.6	15.4	-1.86
Richard Hamilton	86	87	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.35	-6	-1	-5	15.7	16.4	-0.63	14.0	13.2	0.77

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Foster	59	57	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.07	18	-11	29	13.8	14.0	-0.19	15.8	15.8	0.01
Jamaal Tinsley	91	91	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.34	5	2	3	13.8	14.5	-0.65	15.8	16.5	-0.74
Jermaine O'Neal	86	87	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.24	7	0	7	13.8	14.8	-1.05	15.9	14.8	1.12
Reggie Miller	77	77	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.11	11	-4	15	14.3	12.2	2.06	15.7	16.3	-0.69
Al Harrington	66	65	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.36	0	7	-7	14.0	13.6	0.40	15.6	16.2	-0.67
Jalen Rose	66	67	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.09	4	3	1	13.4	14.9	-1.54	16.3	14.6	1.74
Jonathan Bender	4	3	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.05	-1	8	-9	13.7	13.9	-0.14	9.7	16.0	-6.33
Austin Croshere	36	38	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.21	-9	16	-25	14.2	13.7	0.45	15.8	15.8	0.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.65,0.6,0.59,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.84,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.97,0.95,0.94,0.9,0.98,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 90, LAL 97	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.83,0.88,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.9,0.9,0.98,0.98,1	94.9%
DEN 88, NYK 97	0.5,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.32,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.59,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.87,0.91,0.89,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	94.6%
NJN 100, CHH 113	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.58,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.48,0.37,0.51,0.42,0.55,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.63,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.81,0.88,0.86,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.3%