NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	90		Excitement	6.0 [482]		MVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): +20.6%
Los Angeles Lakers	97		Comeback	2.5 [712]		LVP	Andrew Bynum (LAL): -17.4%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Klay Thompson	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.11	0.07	-0.00	8	87%	0.20	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.00	8	62%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Wright	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	0	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Rush	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dominic McGuire	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nate Robinson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	10	41%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Charles Jenkins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.02	0.03	13	43%	0.00	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.04
David Lee	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08	-0.09	-0.02	-0.03	11	58%	0.06	7	-0.14	4	75%	-0.00
Ekpe Udoh	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Monta Ellis	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13	-0.07	-0.05	0.02	20	40%	-0.03	2	-0.10	5	40%	-0.04

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.16,0.17,0.2,0.21,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.21	0.21	0.07	0.09	-0.05	28	56%	0.26	3	-0.06	14	86%	0.05
Matt Barnes	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.05	-0.01	9	76%	0.18	3	-0.06	3	67%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	5	70%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	15	53%	0.10	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.04	-0.02	3	50%	0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Goudelock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	67%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bynum	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.14	-0.03	-0.00	9	35%	-0.08	4	-0.10	8	37%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	0.3	32.0	15.7	25.7	1.0	44.2	142.5
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +11.7%

LAL +7.3%

LAL +15.1%

LAL +10.7%

LAL +5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	LAL	NBA	GSW	LAL	NBA
this game	14.8	15.3	15.6	94.7	101.0	102.8
season	15.2	16.2		103.6	103.8
opponent	15.1	15.4		103.5	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.5	14.5	17.1	12.6	14.8
LAL	15.1	16.2	15.6	14.5	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Jenkins	20	21	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.11	-5	-2	-3	17.0	14.3	2.75	13.6	15.8	-2.24
Chris Wright	7	8	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.03	-2	-5	3	16.0	14.7	1.26	17.2	15.1	2.10
Dorell Wright	48	50	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.07	-2	-5	3	14.3	15.3	-1.01	14.9	15.8	-0.97
Brandon Rush	11	12	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.14	0	-7	7	16.3	14.6	1.63	16.2	15.2	1.06
Klay Thompson	44	42	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.33	6	-13	19	14.5	15.1	-0.58	15.9	14.9	0.99
Ekpe Udoh	27	28	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.06	-4	-3	-1	15.0	14.7	0.29	17.5	14.4	3.02
David Lee	77	77	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.18	-3	-4	1	14.4	16.6	-2.13	14.6	18.2	-3.53
Nate Robinson	61	62	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.27	-1	-6	5	13.9	16.5	-2.64	16.3	13.5	2.87
Dominic McGuire	34	32	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.18	-6	-1	-5	15.9	14.2	1.68	15.4	15.3	0.17
Monta Ellis	77	79	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.20	-7	0	-7	14.7	15.3	-0.62	15.1	16.5	-1.39
Kwame Brown	69	69	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.11	-11	4	-15	15.2	13.8	1.36	14.7	16.9	-2.23

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kobe Bryant	83	81	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.27	13	-6	19	15.4	14.8	0.64	14.7	15.7	-1.04
Matt Barnes	60	59	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.07	13	-6	19	14.7	16.4	-1.71	16.1	12.7	3.44
Pau Gasol	77	74	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.21	8	-1	9	14.8	17.4	-2.62	14.3	16.9	-2.60
Derek Fisher	53	50	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.01	12	-5	17	14.4	16.4	-2.03	14.9	14.8	0.10
Andrew Bynum	70	69	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.23	2	5	-3	15.1	16.0	-0.93	15.8	12.3	3.47
Troy Murphy	43	43	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.16	4	3	1	17.2	13.8	3.42	15.3	14.5	0.82
Jason Kapono	10	10	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.12	5	2	3	19.6	14.8	4.77	14.2	14.9	-0.71
Steve Blake	51	52	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.32	-6	13	-19	15.8	14.7	1.11	13.6	16.3	-2.77
Andrew Goudelock	15	18	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.01	-6	13	-19	13.3	15.7	-2.44	13.2	15.2	-2.05
Metta World Peace	18	19	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.06	-10	17	-27	16.3	15.1	1.18	14.4	14.9	-0.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.83,0.88,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.9,0.9,0.98,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 103, IND 110	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.65,0.6,0.59,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.84,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.97,0.95,0.94,0.9,0.98,0.99,0.99,1	94.9%
NJN 100, CHH 113	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.58,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.48,0.37,0.51,0.42,0.55,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.63,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.81,0.88,0.86,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.0%
VAN 96, UTA 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.5,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.53,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.56,0.71,0.74,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.92,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1	93.8%