NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	83		Excitement	6.5 [509]		MVP	Hanno Mottola (ATL): +10.5%
Atlanta Hawks	90		Comeback	1.5 [708]		LVP	Shareef Abdur-Rahim (ATL): -26.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Mack	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0,0	0.02	-0.02	0.00	14	57%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Tang Hamilton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	8	47%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Eddie House	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	10	40%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	19	51%	-0.01	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.01
Kendall Gill	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	5	42%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Brian Grant	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13	-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	12	39%	-0.13	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.13	-0.09	0.00	8	37%	-0.11	4	-0.10	3	33%	-0.02

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hanno Mottola	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.04	0.00	6	83%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dion Glover	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.02	-0.02	7	72%	0.11	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Emanual Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	9	50%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Chris Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.01	8	59%	0.03	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.04
Cal Bowdler	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.03	0.01	15	48%	-0.01	1	-0.02	12	75%	-0.01
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.02	-0.03	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.12	-0.06	0.00	7	29%	-0.07	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.21	-0.06	-0.01	14	40%	-0.13	5	-0.13	14	79%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	1.8	31.3	16.2	26.5	1.7	41.3	146.9
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +22.5%

ATL +19.6%

ATL +7.1%

MIA -0.8%

ATL +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	15.8	15.0	15.6	89.2	95.7	102.3
season	16.5	15.5		96.6	99.7
opponent	15.2	15.8		103.9	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.6	15.4	18.1	15.5	15.8
ATL	14.8	13.4	17.9	14.5	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Mack	6	7	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.08	4	-11	15	14.0	15.9	-1.94	14.6	15.0	-0.45
Tang Hamilton	52	51	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.19	4	-11	15	16.0	15.6	0.37	15.0	15.0	0.07
Anthony Carter	61	63	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-7	7	15.2	17.0	-1.85	14.8	15.4	-0.64
Eddie House	31	32	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.02	-7	0	-7	16.7	15.4	1.29	13.2	15.9	-2.68
Brian Grant	67	67	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.21	-3	-4	1	15.7	16.1	-0.41	16.4	11.4	4.97
Kendall Gill	33	34	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.04	-9	2	-11	15.8	15.8	0.05	16.5	14.1	2.32
LaPhonso Ellis	70	68	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.26	-6	-1	-5	15.6	16.4	-0.82	14.7	15.8	-1.08
Eddie Jones	77	78	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.27	-8	1	-9	15.6	16.9	-1.35	15.0	14.9	0.06
Alonzo Mourning	68	70	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.31	-10	3	-13	16.6	13.7	2.92	14.2	17.3	-3.09

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Emanual Davis	63	63	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.24	16	-9	25	14.9	15.2	-0.30	15.5	16.4	-0.91
Toni Kukoc	61	63	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.14	14	-7	21	14.8	15.4	-0.58	15.6	16.3	-0.66
Nazr Mohammed	75	73	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.24	9	-2	11	14.9	15.4	-0.48	16.3	14.0	2.25
Jason Terry	76	74	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.19	5	2	3	14.8	15.9	-1.11	16.0	14.9	1.09
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	62	62	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.12	4	3	1	15.7	13.7	2.02	14.8	17.8	-3.03
Hanno Mottola	26	27	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.18	0	7	-7	14.5	15.2	-0.68	18.6	14.7	3.96
Dion Glover	36	36	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.17	0	7	-7	13.7	15.8	-2.05	15.5	16.0	-0.52
Chris Crawford	21	18	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.12	-3	10	-13	17.1	14.4	2.71	15.4	15.9	-0.46
Cal Bowdler	16	17	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	8	-9	17.7	14.4	3.25	15.4	15.9	-0.57
Jacque Vaughn	34	32	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	0.06	-9	16	-25	14.1	15.5	-1.37	15.6	15.9	-0.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.54,0.61,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.59,0.57,0.69,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.79,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.71,0.73,0.81,0.85,0.85,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 93, CHI 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.63,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.87,0.71,0.83,0.69,0.79,0.97,0.98,1	93.8%
CLE 97, LAC 104	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.65,0.69,0.75,0.83,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.73,0.73,0.8,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.89,0.84,0.89,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.89,0.9,0.98,1	93.3%
ATL 101, ORL 108	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.7,0.76,0.76,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.71,0.78,0.79,0.73,0.8,0.82,0.9,0.95,0.85,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.76,0.87,0.94,0.93,1,1,1	93.1%