NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	102		Excitement	8.4 [185]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIL): +44.6%
Denver Nuggets	101		Comeback	10.7 [232]		LVP	George McCloud (DEN): -22.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.45	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.3,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45	0.26	0.19	0.00	12	111%	0.52	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.03
Anthony Mason	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11	0.00	0.10	-0.01	9	60%	0.16	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Rafer Alston	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	9	62%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Glenn Robinson	0.00	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.08,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	19	49%	0.08	1	-0.08	5	60%	-0.01
Mark Pope	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Redd	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	5	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Sam Cassell	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.17,0.09,-0.14	-0.01	-0.15	-0.01	10	55%	0.11	2	-0.25	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.04	0.09	-0.02	13	54%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Rider	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.00	4	87%	0.12	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawnelle Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	60%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	-0.00	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Nick Van Exel	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.2,0.17,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.09,-0.19,0.1,-0.04	-0.04	0.12	-0.16	-0.01	32	62%	0.09	4	-0.13	7	86%	-0.01
Scott Williams	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	4	60%	0.04	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	0	50%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	0.00	-0.03	5	8%	-0.07	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.22	-0.22	-0.04	-0.19	-0.00	9	54%	-0.17	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	3.4	26.4	15.7	23.5	1.8	31.2	127.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +72.1%

MIL +14.5%

DEN -38.7%

DEN -7.4%

MIL +9.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DEN	NBA	MIL	DEN	NBA
this game	14.1	18.6	15.6	115.9	114.8	102.3
season	15.3	16.1		104.7	99.7
opponent	15.2	16.0		105.9	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.1	12.1	15.2	15.4	14.1
DEN	15.2	17.4	21.9	21.4	18.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ervin Johnson	32	33	0.93	-0.43	1.37	0.49	15	-14	29	14.8	13.7	1.10	20.1	17.8	2.36
Sam Cassell	51	53	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.49	-1	2	-3	15.0	12.8	2.14	19.5	17.4	2.02
Ray Allen	63	66	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.49	-1	2	-3	14.5	13.0	1.56	18.7	18.4	0.32
Glenn Robinson	61	59	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.31	1	0	1	13.7	15.0	-1.33	18.4	19.1	-0.73
Anthony Mason	69	69	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.40	-3	4	-7	14.2	13.7	0.44	19.2	16.8	2.37
Michael Redd	35	33	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.01	2	-1	3	13.7	14.4	-0.70	17.8	19.1	-1.33
Rafer Alston	35	33	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.06	4	-3	7	13.1	14.7	-1.56	17.6	19.3	-1.67
Mark Pope	26	26	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.20	-7	8	-15	12.5	14.7	-2.19	16.3	19.6	-3.32
Tim Thomas	56	57	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	-0.02	-1	2	-3	14.4	13.5	0.86	19.4	17.2	2.20
Jason Caffey	12	11	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.02	-4	5	-9	13.4	14.2	-0.77	15.1	19.2	-4.06

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	18	18	0.23	-0.73	0.95	-0.10	11	-12	23	15.9	19.3	-3.40	13.7	14.2	-0.45
Shawnelle Scott	27	28	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.00	1	-2	3	16.9	19.4	-2.59	14.4	13.9	0.51
Raef LaFrentz	38	38	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.25	-8	7	-15	19.5	18.0	1.45	13.3	14.7	-1.34
Avery Johnson	27	27	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.03	0	-1	1	16.9	19.4	-2.48	14.0	14.1	-0.17
Isaiah Rider	28	26	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-1	1	17.8	19.0	-1.21	13.7	14.2	-0.55
Scott Williams	66	65	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.49	2	-3	5	18.9	17.8	1.17	13.8	14.8	-1.01
Nick Van Exel	72	74	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.48	0	-1	1	19.3	15.6	3.77	14.2	13.2	1.03
James Posey	63	64	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.47	-3	2	-5	18.9	18.0	0.85	14.2	13.8	0.40
George McCloud	45	45	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.70	3	-4	7	18.6	18.7	-0.10	14.9	13.2	1.66
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	56	55	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.31	-11	10	-21	19.6	17.0	2.64	14.1	14.1	0.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.41,0.47,0.5,0.57,0.65,0.71,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.79,0.75,0.84,0.83,0.79,0.83,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.86,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.91,0.9,0.84,0.87,0.78,0.72,0.81,0.87,0.82,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.65,0.54,0.69,0.55,0.35,0.72,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 89, HOU 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.89,0.88,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.8,0.75,0.67,0.7,0.84,0.83,0.72,0.74,0.63,0.72,0.74,0.85,0.85,0.76,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.73,0.62,0.55,0.45,0.84,0	91.7%
NOH 98, SAS 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.65,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.9,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.84,0.95,0.89,0.89,0.84,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.79,0.83,0.77,0.74,0.84,0.82,0.86,0.72,0.57,0.73,0	91.0%
NJN 96, ORL 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.65,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.8,0.78,0.75,0.8,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.73,0.79,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.76,0.79,0.81,0.86,0.91,0.86,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.83,0.88,0.86,0.76,0.61,0.38,0.43,0.45,0.58,0	90.6%