NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	98		Excitement	8.7 [132]		MVP	Darrell Armstrong (NOH): +90.0%
San Antonio Spurs	96		Comeback	21.1 [26]		LVP	Stacey Augmon (NOH): -30.2%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darrell Armstrong	0.90	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.2,0.32,0.9	0.12	0.80	0.02	21	69%	0.98	3	-0.08	9	100%	0.03
Steven Smith	0.40	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.4	0.03	0.35	-0.01	7	71%	0.44	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.03
Jamaal Magloire	0.22	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.22	0.00	0.23	0.02	11	57%	0.24	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.02
Robert Traylor	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.02	0.00	5	80%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	9	55%	0.04	3	-0.06	4	50%	0.00
Sean Rooks	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryce Drew	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Lynch	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.00	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Stacey Augmon	-0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.3	-0.11	-0.19	0.00	10	33%	-0.26	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.23	0.23	-0.05	0.28	-0.01	15	50%	0.30	3	-0.07	4	25%	-0.09
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.21	0.21	0.03	0.15	-0.02	9	67%	0.23	1	-0.02	12	83%	0.17
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.00	-0.00	9	83%	0.13	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.01	5	80%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	7	53%	0.02	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.03
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.09	-0.09	0.02	-0.12	-0.00	6	64%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.05	-0.10	-0.00	11	44%	-0.12	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.00
Charlie Ward	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	5	20%	-0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	0.3	33.0	16.8	28.1	1.8	37.2	142.4
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +101.8%

SAS -22.4%

SAS -23.8%

NOH +1.9%

SAS -7.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	SAS	NBA	NOH	SAS	NBA
this game	16.8	15.6	15.7	111.4	106.7	100.5
season	16.0	15.9		99.3	100.1
opponent	15.8	15.7		92.7	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	17.8	17.8	14.7	17.2	16.8
SAS	15.0	14.3	14.7	18.8	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Traylor	34	35	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.31	14	-12	26	15.5	17.6	-2.18	15.4	15.7	-0.27
Steven Smith	78	79	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.41	7	-5	12	16.6	18.8	-2.25	15.4	16.8	-1.43
Darrell Armstrong	74	77	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.43	3	-1	4	17.0	15.8	1.21	15.9	13.5	2.46
Stacey Augmon	58	59	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.55	-2	4	-6	17.4	15.7	1.73	15.8	15.2	0.62
Jamaal Magloire	64	66	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.57	-5	7	-12	17.3	15.4	1.97	15.2	16.7	-1.50
Sean Rooks	21	21	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.01	1	1	0	15.1	17.3	-2.25	15.8	15.5	0.25
George Lynch	35	36	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.03	-1	3	-4	16.5	17.0	-0.58	15.2	15.8	-0.62
Bryce Drew	19	19	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	-0.03	-1	3	-4	15.9	17.0	-1.10	14.9	15.7	-0.85
P.J. Brown	57	58	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.06	-6	8	-14	17.6	15.3	2.34	16.1	14.7	1.36

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Horry	14	14	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.08	9	-11	20	13.4	16.0	-2.62	19.1	16.4	2.69
Rasho Nesterovic	41	42	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.08	2	-4	6	13.8	17.0	-3.19	15.3	18.2	-2.96
Ron Mercer	27	27	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.04	1	-3	4	15.0	15.8	-0.76	15.4	17.4	-2.07
Hedo Turkoglu	25	25	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.02	3	-5	8	15.4	15.6	-0.18	17.6	16.5	1.16
Charlie Ward	32	32	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.06	0	-2	2	16.4	15.1	1.25	17.9	16.2	1.68
Kevin Willis	8	8	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.06	-7	5	-12	18.9	15.2	3.63	13.1	17.2	-4.05
Tony Parker	58	56	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.39	-2	0	-2	15.1	16.4	-1.25	16.2	17.9	-1.68
Tim Duncan	69	66	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.49	1	-3	4	16.5	12.6	3.84	17.5	14.6	2.95
Manu Ginobili	60	58	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.59	3	-5	8	15.8	15.0	0.85	17.1	16.3	0.82
Bruce Bowen	68	66	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.32	-11	9	-20	15.6	15.5	0.03	16.8	16.7	0.11
Malik Rose	48	46	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.45	-9	7	-16	15.9	15.2	0.62	17.1	16.5	0.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.65,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.9,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.84,0.95,0.89,0.89,0.84,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.79,0.83,0.77,0.74,0.84,0.82,0.86,0.72,0.57,0.73,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 84, NYK 83	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.71,0.75,0.79,0.84,0.87,0.91,0.89,0.8,0.79,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.81,0.86,0.85,0.78,0.77,0.81,0.91,0.85,0.85,0.79,0.67,0.73,0.83,0.76,0.86,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.73,0	91.8%
BKN 117, ORL 115	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.59,0.57,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.74,0.72,0.77,0.79,0.87,0.89,0.89,0.9,0.86,0.9,0.87,0.84,0.86,0.9,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.9,0.91,0.86,0.89,0.85,0.85,0.82,0.85,0.76,0.73,0.83,0.76,0.87,0.85,0.93,0.77,0.74,0	91.5%
DET 96, PHI 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.63,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.74,0.79,0.82,0.86,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.78,0.69,0.79,0.77,0.58,0	91.0%