NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	92		Excitement	8.0 [239]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +24.7%
Miami Heat	97		Comeback	1.5 [739]		LVP	Antonio Davis (TOR): -34.6%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keon Clark	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.06	-0.01	6	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.09
Jerome Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	16	47%	0.01	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.04
Tracy Murray	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Bradley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Montross	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Childs	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	5	70%	0.09	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	12	58%	0.03	2	-0.06	9	78%	0.01
Vince Carter	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.1	-0.13	0.01	-0.02	18	45%	0.05	5	-0.15	8	75%	0.00
Hakeem Olajuwon	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.2	-0.08	-0.10	0.02	10	35%	-0.17	1	-0.03	3	0%	-0.09
Antonio Davis	-0.35	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.3,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35	-0.19	-0.16	-0.00	9	36%	-0.18	4	-0.17	10	40%	-0.07

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.25	0.25	0.01	0.23	-0.01	15	54%	0.27	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.04
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.03	0.00	6	69%	0.09	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	15	59%	0.07	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Sam Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	1	0%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	67%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.11	-0.03	-0.11	15	54%	0.04	5	-0.08	16	69%	-0.06
Sean Marks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	83%	0.04	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.02
Kendall Gill	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	6	36%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	5	23%	-0.09	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.7	1.8	31.7	17.8	35.0	2.8	42.3	160.1
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +40.5%

MIA +0.8%

TOR -1.8%

MIA +5.1%

MIA +5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	15.5	15.5	15.6	98.9	104.3	102.3
season	16.2	16.5		100.3	96.6
opponent	15.8	15.6		98.2	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	17.4	14.9	15.2	14.6	15.5
MIA	14.7	14.5	15.4	17.3	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Bradley	6	6	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.16	5	-10	15	16.2	15.5	0.71	21.2	15.1	6.10
Tracy Murray	2	3	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-4	3	3.0	15.8	-12.78	1.0	15.9	-14.94
Alvin Williams	79	78	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.32	9	-14	23	15.3	16.7	-1.42	15.4	15.9	-0.48
Antonio Davis	68	69	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.12	2	-7	9	16.2	13.5	2.77	14.9	17.2	-2.35
Jerome Williams	5	4	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	-1	-3	15.4	15.5	-0.11	10.7	15.7	-4.92
Eric Montross	10	7	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.07	-6	1	-7	13.8	15.7	-1.91	24.1	14.8	9.39
Hakeem Olajuwon	62	62	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.34	3	-8	11	15.9	14.6	1.29	15.0	16.3	-1.24
Keon Clark	33	35	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.05	-9	4	-13	14.3	16.1	-1.82	16.5	14.9	1.60
Chris Childs	38	38	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.00	-13	8	-21	15.3	15.7	-0.41	15.3	15.5	-0.20
Morris Peterson	84	83	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.29	-8	3	-11	15.6	14.4	1.17	15.5	14.8	0.74
Vince Carter	78	80	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.45	-3	-2	-1	15.7	14.4	1.32	15.5	15.2	0.36

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	61	61	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.31	7	-2	9	16.0	14.3	1.71	15.2	16.0	-0.75
Sean Marks	34	34	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.12	8	-3	11	15.9	15.2	0.66	15.7	15.4	0.27
Kendall Gill	48	47	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.12	8	-3	11	15.7	15.2	0.55	16.1	14.9	1.26
Eddie Jones	59	61	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.39	-3	8	-11	15.5	15.4	0.17	15.9	14.7	1.15
Rod Strickland	32	31	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.09	7	-2	9	15.7	15.3	0.39	16.1	15.2	0.94
LaPhonso Ellis	62	62	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.21	1	4	-3	14.9	16.6	-1.73	16.0	14.6	1.34
Brian Grant	56	56	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.29	-2	7	-9	15.4	15.5	-0.13	15.2	15.9	-0.64
Anthony Carter	61	62	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.26	-2	7	-9	15.3	15.7	-0.39	15.2	16.1	-0.94
Sam Mack	34	32	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	5	-5	15.1	15.7	-0.59	14.0	16.3	-2.34
Eddie House	18	19	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.05	1	4	-3	14.6	15.7	-1.06	15.1	15.6	-0.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.43,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.69,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.7,0.62,0.79,0.81,0.81,0.74,0.65,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.91,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 73, ATL 85	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.5,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.8,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.93,1,1,1,1	93.5%
DEN 104, CLE 111	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.79,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.92,1	92.9%
MIA 85, UTA 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.5,0.57,0.75,0.8,0.9,0.9,0.88,0.9,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1	92.8%