NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	113		Excitement	8.6 [129]		MVP	Marcus Fizer (CHI): +39.1%
Washington Wizards	109		Comeback	3.0 [292]		LVP	Elton Brand (CHI): -27.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Fizer	0.39	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.39	0.10	0.31	0.02	14	72%	0.45	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Fred Hoiberg	0.17	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.04	0.14	0.01	11	70%	0.25	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Jamal Crawford	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11	0.12	0.00	0.01	10	77%	0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Jake Voskuhl	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dalibor Bagaric	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Steve Goodrich	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	1	25%	-0.04	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
A.J. Guyton	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	6	57%	-0.01	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Metta World Peace	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.08	-0.01	13	53%	-0.01	2	-0.08	6	100%	0.05
Elton Brand	-0.28	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.08,-0.28	-0.02	-0.27	-0.01	25	52%	-0.09	4	-0.19	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Courtney Alexander	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.11	0.11	0.01	17	70%	0.25	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Loy Vaught	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	7	57%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
David Vanterpool	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.07	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.05	0.01	20	61%	0.18	7	-0.18	1	100%	0.00
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	5	71%	0.04	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Jahidi White	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	11	68%	0.13	5	-0.14	6	50%	-0.02
Popeye Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	67%	0.00	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Laron Profit	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16	-0.16	-0.05	-0.11	0.00	8	60%	0.01	4	-0.17	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.1	1.8	32.2	15.5	28.2	2.4	33.7	134.9
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS -12.3%

WAS -1.2%

CHI +41.4%

CHI +18.6%

CHI +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	WAS	NBA	CHI	WAS	NBA
this game	16.1	13.9	15.5	117.7	113.5	100.9
season	16.4	15.2		95.2	98.6
opponent	15.2	15.1		105.5	104.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.3	16.2	16.9	16.1	16.1
WAS	14.7	13.2	13.1	14.5	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Metta World Peace	81	81	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.34	17	-13	30	15.5	19.3	-3.80	14.6	9.9	4.75
Elton Brand	95	94	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.36	2	2	0	15.9	33.0	-17.05	14.0	8.0	6.00
Jamal Crawford	66	64	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.26	5	-1	6	16.4	15.6	0.81	13.7	14.3	-0.61
Fred Hoiberg	86	85	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.42	-4	8	-12	16.2	15.6	0.59	13.9	13.5	0.47
Marcus Fizer	48	48	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.31	-2	6	-8	14.7	17.5	-2.83	14.8	12.9	1.92
Steve Goodrich	5	5	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.03	5	-1	6	25.8	15.6	10.21	10.6	14.1	-3.45
Jake Voskuhl	24	23	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.04	2	2	0	16.2	16.1	0.17	14.7	13.6	1.08
Dalibor Bagaric	20	22	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	3	-2	17.8	15.7	2.12	11.1	14.7	-3.55
A.J. Guyton	55	58	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.12	-6	10	-16	16.6	15.5	1.11	13.0	15.2	-2.25

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Popeye Jones	36	35	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.16	8	-12	20	13.0	14.4	-1.44	17.2	15.5	1.69
Loy Vaught	38	37	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.22	5	-9	14	14.8	13.2	1.60	15.6	16.5	-0.91
David Vanterpool	29	31	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.08	-5	1	-6	15.3	13.3	2.06	16.1	16.1	-0.04
Richard Hamilton	91	91	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.35	1	-5	6	14.1	10.6	3.45	15.6	25.8	-10.21
Michael Smith	58	59	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.17	-9	5	-14	13.2	14.8	-1.60	16.5	15.6	0.91
Laron Profit	92	91	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.39	-2	-2	0	13.6	20.5	-6.91	16.3	13.2	3.09
Courtney Alexander	76	75	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.33	-6	2	-8	13.5	15.4	-1.99	16.6	14.5	2.11
Jahidi White	60	61	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.22	-12	8	-20	14.4	13.0	1.44	15.5	17.2	-1.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.43,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.22,0.24,0.25,0.27,0.17,0.2,0.3,0.42,0.29,0.37,0.42,0.3,0.27,0.34,0.32,0.25,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.13,0.16,0.25,0.38,0.27,0.37,0.24,0.13,0.31,0.45,0.23,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 94, DAL 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.42,0.44,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.32,0.34,0.42,0.33,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.21,0.29,0.27,0.36,0.19,0.27,0.45,0.37,0.25,0.09,0	92.2%
ATL 96, DET 89	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.39,0.27,0.28,0.31,0.22,0.37,0.34,0.42,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.31,0.38,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.17,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.17,0.31,0.36,0.14,0.05,0	91.8%
NOK 100, UTA 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.3,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.23,0.16,0.18,0.13,0.08,0.15,0.24,0.27,0.16,0.29,0.4,0.19,0.37,0.34,0.16,0	91.7%