NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	100		Excitement	8.7 [124]		MVP	Voshon Lenard (DEN): +63.7%
Houston Rockets	99		Comeback	8.5 [71]		LVP	Steve Francis (HOU): -23.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0.64	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.64	0.12	0.55	0.03	10	75%	0.64	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Raef LaFrentz	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.08	0.11	-0.00	6	83%	0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	8	79%	0.13	2	-0.04	3	67%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Goldwire	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Robert Pack	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	24	40%	-0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Willis	-0.17	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.17	-0.06	-0.10	0.01	21	40%	-0.14	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
George McCloud	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.11	-0.09	0.01	16	33%	-0.16	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.02	0.01	19	63%	0.14	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.04
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.1	0.10	0.09	-0.01	-0.01	16	71%	0.19	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
Matt Bullard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	5	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Colson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Kenny Thomas	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	11	36%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.01	3	43%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Dan Langhi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	11	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.24	-0.24	-0.11	-0.13	0.00	17	39%	-0.14	3	-0.10	2	0%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.1	2.4	25.6	15.6	26.2	1.6	35.2	126.7
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +45.2%

HOU -3.1%

HOU -12.6%

DEN +18.9%

DEN +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	14.8	16.7	15.5	109.9	107.6	100.9
season	15.2	16.3		101.4	104.6
opponent	14.9	15.2		102.1	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.0	13.8	13.0	20.7	14.8
HOU	16.4	16.9	17.7	15.6	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Posey	60	62	1.19	-0.69	1.87	0.54	22	-21	43	14.0	16.3	-2.29	18.1	13.6	4.48
Kevin Willis	80	80	0.91	-0.41	1.31	0.50	14	-13	27	13.9	21.5	-7.66	16.5	17.7	-1.17
George McCloud	85	85	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.49	-1	2	-3	15.0	12.5	2.48	16.5	18.7	-2.23
Robert Pack	76	77	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.29	-4	5	-9	14.5	16.6	-2.14	15.8	20.9	-5.04
Anthony Goldwire	8	9	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.01	-1	2	-3	14.0	14.9	-0.89	19.3	16.4	2.97
Voshon Lenard	48	48	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.32	-12	13	-25	16.5	12.9	3.61	15.6	17.8	-2.23
Raef LaFrentz	62	63	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.01	-1	2	-3	14.8	14.9	-0.07	17.0	15.9	1.05
Ryan Bowen	36	36	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	0.21	-12	13	-25	16.5	13.7	2.74	16.8	16.6	0.25

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sean Colson	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.03	-1	0	-1	7.3	17.0	-9.63	7.3	15.1	-7.73
Carlos Rogers	48	47	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.33	10	-11	21	15.6	17.8	-2.23	16.8	12.7	4.13
Matt Bullard	50	52	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.32	8	-9	17	16.6	16.8	-0.20	13.7	16.4	-2.71
Kenny Thomas	25	24	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.03	-6	5	-11	16.4	16.8	-0.40	13.0	15.5	-2.52
Shandon Anderson	21	20	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.11	-11	10	-21	18.0	16.3	1.68	12.2	15.5	-3.29
Moochie Norris	51	52	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.55	11	-12	23	15.8	17.7	-1.82	16.3	12.8	3.53
Dan Langhi	58	56	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.46	6	-7	13	17.0	16.0	1.03	16.2	12.6	3.55
Kelvin Cato	44	43	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.02	-13	12	-25	17.8	15.6	2.23	12.9	16.5	-3.61
Cuttino Mobley	81	81	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.48	-2	1	-3	16.4	18.6	-2.25	15.0	13.5	1.48
Steve Francis	79	77	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.41	-7	6	-13	17.3	12.5	4.79	14.8	14.9	-0.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.28,0.29,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.31,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.22,0.21,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.58,0.68,0.79,0.71,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.67,0.72,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 95, CHA 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.41,0.36,0.3,0.33,0.28,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.3,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.32,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.34,0.43,0.52,0.63,0.59,0.55,0.34,0.31,0.45,0.55,0.58,0	89.4%
SAS 89, SEA 87	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.24,0.28,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.71,0.67,0.81,0.63,0.68,0.58,0	89.3%
CLE 93, IND 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.32,0.27,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.26,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.59,0.58,0	89.1%