NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	82		Excitement	6.8 [444]		MVP	Cedric Ceballos (MIA): +6.2%
Miami Heat	77		Comeback	26.6 [17]		LVP	Brian Grant (MIA): -28.2%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.27,-0.27,-0.26,-0.23,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.1,0.06,0.04	-0.12	0.13	-0.02	23	51%	0.17	4	-0.14	19	53%	-0.06
Mark Blount	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.03	0.00	3	87%	0.10	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Antoine Walker	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	18	56%	0.08	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Walter McCarty	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Brown	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Milt Palacio	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	8	44%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Eric Williams	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	7	43%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	3	0%	-0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cedric Ceballos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.01	5	70%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05	0.05	-0.03	0.09	0.00	7	62%	0.09	2	-0.04	12	67%	0.00
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	10	41%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.06	0.00	9	56%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	10	50%	0.00	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.09	-0.11	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	2	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22	-0.22	-0.15	-0.07	-0.00	13	29%	-0.13	3	-0.09	2	0%	-0.04
Brian Grant	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.09	-0.20	-0.01	12	54%	0.03	6	-0.32	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.5	32.4	16.4	27.1	2.5	30.4	135.4
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +30.8%

MIA -4.6%

BOS +4.9%

BOS +15.6%

BOS +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	15.6	16.4	15.5	91.1	85.6	100.9
season	15.1	16.3		99.7	98.4
opponent	16.1	15.4		96.9	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.2	15.1	16.7	15.5	15.6
MIA	17.5	15.5	16.0	16.5	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Williams	50	51	0.99	-0.49	1.47	0.46	18	-13	31	14.2	17.4	-3.25	16.7	15.9	0.76
Milt Palacio	52	51	0.97	-0.47	1.43	0.44	18	-13	31	14.1	17.7	-3.62	16.5	16.1	0.45
Mark Blount	44	45	0.81	-0.32	1.13	0.43	13	-8	21	17.2	14.2	2.96	17.4	15.3	2.18
Paul Pierce	83	82	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.39	7	-2	9	15.6	16.0	-0.39	16.8	12.1	4.64
Antoine Walker	82	82	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.37	1	4	-3	15.7	15.0	0.71	16.4	15.9	0.53
Tony Battie	23	22	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.00	4	1	3	15.5	15.7	-0.22	15.1	16.8	-1.67
Walter McCarty	1	1	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.00	-2	7	-9	0.0	15.8	-15.82	6.0	16.5	-10.47
Vitaly Potapenko	26	25	-0.31	0.81	-1.11	-0.10	-7	12	-19	15.5	15.7	-0.15	16.4	16.3	0.12
Bryant Stith	50	51	-0.49	0.99	-1.49	-0.14	-12	17	-29	16.5	14.6	1.84	15.2	17.8	-2.59
Randy Brown	39	40	-0.52	1.02	-1.55	-0.08	-15	20	-35	17.3	14.4	2.89	15.8	16.8	-0.91

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	45	41	0.70	-1.20	1.90	0.08	21	-26	47	15.3	17.4	-2.13	17.0	14.5	2.58
A.C. Green	24	25	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.01	4	-9	13	17.5	15.9	1.56	16.2	15.4	0.82
Anthony Carter	32	29	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.18	-6	1	-7	15.4	16.9	-1.47	15.8	15.6	0.17
Cedric Ceballos	28	27	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.01	-4	-1	-3	14.4	17.3	-2.90	14.4	16.2	-1.71
Dan Majerle	67	69	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.29	5	-10	15	16.4	16.3	0.01	15.3	16.8	-1.46
Anthony Mason	76	76	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.36	1	-6	7	16.5	15.5	1.01	15.4	16.9	-1.52
Tim Hardaway	65	68	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.52	-2	-3	1	16.6	15.7	0.94	15.0	17.8	-2.82
Brian Grant	56	57	-0.95	0.45	-1.40	-0.45	-17	12	-29	16.7	15.8	0.95	15.6	15.8	-0.23
Bruce Bowen	57	58	-1.20	0.70	-1.90	-0.41	-27	22	-49	17.4	14.6	2.76	16.5	14.1	2.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.3,0.37,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.76,0.88,0.94,0.78,0.73,0.62,0.54,0.45,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 111, ORL 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.29,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.28,0.15,0.24,0.21,0.32,0.27,0.34,0.48,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.79,0.79,0.85,0.89,0.85,0.93,0.81,0.71,0.57,0.17,0	91.8%
UTA 93, POR 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.24,0.25,0.23,0.18,0.16,0.18,0.13,0.15,0.27,0.35,0.32,0.25,0.37,0.26,0.36,0.38,0.52,0.62,0.76,0.58,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.45,0.45,0.27,0	91.7%
PHI 92, NYK 90	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.28,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.29,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.71,0.81,0.86,0.66,0.53,0.47,0.28,0.23,0.02,0	90.3%