NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	103		Excitement	6.4 [505]		MVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): +28.6%
Charlotte Hornets	96		Comeback	17.7 [16]		LVP	Robert Pack (DEN): -29.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0.29	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.29	0.26	0.06	0.03	27	72%	0.30	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.06
Ryan Bowen	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.05	0.10	-0.00	4	90%	0.19	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.03
James Posey	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	12	58%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.08	0.02	-0.04	7	44%	0.03	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	3	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Voshon Lenard	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	5	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	15	44%	-0.07	3	-0.06	9	100%	0.03
Robert Pack	-0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.29,-0.29	-0.11	-0.19	-0.00	6	53%	-0.14	5	-0.16	5	40%	-0.16

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.06	-0.00	9	70%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Elden Campbell	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.01	11	56%	0.10	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.05
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	7	56%	0.01	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	4	50%	0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	16	47%	0.04	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.02
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	3	37%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.08	-0.10	-0.02	9	41%	-0.09	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.16,-0.28	-0.28	0.03	-0.29	0.02	21	56%	-0.21	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	1.8	28.0	14.6	22.0	1.7	29.4	120.2
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +49.3%

CHH -4.5%

DEN +12.1%

CHH -4.7%

CHH -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CHH	NBA	DEN	CHH	NBA
this game	15.1	14.6	15.5	105.1	100.0	100.9
season	15.2	15.8		101.4	99.7
opponent	15.6	15.2		97.0	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.0	15.1	14.5	14.8	15.1
CHH	12.3	13.1	16.9	16.5	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Calbert Cheaney	55	53	0.92	-0.42	1.34	0.33	20	-13	33	15.1	15.1	-0.03	15.3	13.6	1.69
Raef LaFrentz	75	71	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.33	12	-5	17	14.5	17.1	-2.62	14.5	14.7	-0.21
Nick Van Exel	82	80	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.20	16	-9	25	15.1	15.2	-0.15	15.1	11.9	3.15
Ryan Bowen	55	53	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.33	10	-3	13	14.4	16.0	-1.65	15.5	13.4	2.07
Robert Pack	58	58	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.30	1	6	-5	14.5	16.1	-1.61	14.6	14.4	0.19
James Posey	75	74	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.03	-3	10	-13	15.1	15.3	-0.24	14.3	15.5	-1.16
Voshon Lenard	15	15	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.03	-6	13	-19	17.2	14.7	2.45	12.1	15.0	-2.88
Antonio McDyess	25	26	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.07	-8	15	-23	15.4	15.0	0.43	12.8	15.2	-2.46
Kevin Willis	50	50	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	-0.09	-7	14	-21	17.0	13.2	3.75	14.0	15.2	-1.22

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Otis Thorpe	35	35	0.28	-0.78	1.06	0.02	9	-16	25	15.0	14.3	0.69	16.2	14.5	1.72
Jamaal Magloire	30	31	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.06	1	-8	9	15.5	14.1	1.36	14.5	15.4	-0.98
Eddie Robinson	50	50	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.09	5	-12	17	14.8	14.3	0.58	15.0	15.2	-0.21
Jamal Mashburn	82	84	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.16	-6	-1	-5	14.6	14.4	0.24	15.2	14.6	0.64
David Wesley	77	81	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.36	-6	-1	-5	14.4	15.1	-0.68	14.6	17.5	-2.91
Elden Campbell	66	67	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.35	-8	1	-9	14.1	15.5	-1.36	15.4	14.5	0.98
Baron Davis	79	79	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.27	-14	7	-21	14.5	14.9	-0.46	15.6	13.1	2.50
P.J. Brown	61	63	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.31	-16	9	-25	14.3	15.0	-0.69	14.5	16.2	-1.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.88,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.83,0.81,0.77,0.71,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.83,0.81,0.86,0.81,0.55,0.33,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 85, PHX 84	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.74,0.83,0.83,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.93,0.91,0.95,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.91,0.9,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.86,0.85,0.84,0.69,0.54,0.32,0.42,0	93.7%
DAL 99, MIL 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.72,0.72,0.77,0.76,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.88,0.82,0.82,0.9,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.81,0.83,0.78,0.79,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.71,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.55,0.42,0	92.5%
MIA 95, NJN 93	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.72,0.76,0.73,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.88,0.87,0.82,0.88,0.84,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.91,0.95,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.88,0.96,0.93,0.93,0.86,0.85,0.86,0.92,0.83,0.69,0.55,0.22,0.16,0	92.5%