NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	83		Excitement	6.6 [471]		MVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): +29.4%
Miami Heat	88		Comeback	1.1 [410]		LVP	Derek Anderson (SAS): -18.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Ferry	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11	0.06	0.04	0.00	3	100%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	8	71%	0.09	3	-0.07	1	0%	-0.02
Sean Elliott	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.04
David Robinson	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,-0.04,-0.04	0.07	-0.09	0.02	10	75%	0.07	2	-0.11	4	100%	0.02
Malik Rose	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.04
Samaki Walker	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	4	30%	-0.03	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Avery Johnson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	7	29%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.12	0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12	-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	22	48%	-0.09	1	-0.03	10	60%	-0.05
Derek Anderson	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	8	39%	-0.04	3	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.21,0.18,0.29	0.29	0.09	0.19	-0.01	18	66%	0.37	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	9	61%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.01	0.03	10	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	9	73%	0.12	5	-0.11	4	100%	0.04
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.01	9	60%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	6	37%	-0.09	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	6	17%	-0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.8	29.0	19.0	27.3	2.7	39.3	143.7
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +35.8%

MIA +1.9%

SAS -17.1%

MIA +26.1%

MIA +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIA	NBA	SAS	MIA	NBA
this game	16.7	19.0	15.5	105.1	107.3	100.9
season	15.9	16.3		103.4	98.4
opponent	16.1	15.5		96.9	96.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.3	19.1	14.7	17.2	16.7
MIA	16.4	19.8	18.7	21.8	19.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sean Elliott	25	26	0.16	-0.66	0.81	0.04	4	-9	13	19.5	15.4	4.04	20.5	18.3	2.12
Avery Johnson	30	31	0.13	-0.63	0.77	-0.01	5	-10	15	19.0	15.3	3.67	19.8	18.5	1.33
Malik Rose	3	3	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-4	3	19.0	16.6	2.37	13.3	19.2	-5.89
Samaki Walker	20	19	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.01	-2	-3	1	21.0	15.3	5.80	22.8	17.9	4.98
Danny Ferry	39	41	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.12	-5	0	-5	16.1	17.4	-1.32	18.5	19.5	-1.05
Antonio Daniels	27	27	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.21	-7	2	-9	18.6	15.7	2.84	21.3	17.9	3.46
David Robinson	59	63	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.35	-3	-2	-1	15.3	21.0	-5.80	17.9	22.8	-4.98
Tim Duncan	76	79	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.33	-4	-1	-3	16.6	19.0	-2.37	19.2	13.3	5.89
Derek Anderson	67	70	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.42	-2	-3	1	15.3	24.5	-9.17	17.9	25.6	-7.70
Terry Porter	49	51	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.34	-10	5	-15	15.3	19.0	-3.67	18.5	19.8	-1.33

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Grant	67	64	0.81	-0.31	1.13	0.43	13	-8	21	17.5	25.9	-8.47	16.6	17.2	-0.59
Tim Hardaway	61	59	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.40	12	-7	19	17.7	22.8	-5.10	16.7	16.8	-0.11
Dan Majerle	72	71	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.41	7	-2	9	18.5	22.7	-4.20	17.0	14.2	2.75
Anthony Mason	76	73	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.29	1	4	-3	19.3	15.0	4.33	15.9	26.2	-10.22
Anthony Carter	40	39	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.29	-1	6	-7	20.4	17.7	2.71	17.5	15.9	1.61
Bruce Bowen	61	57	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.05	3	2	1	19.1	18.8	0.34	16.2	18.1	-1.90
A.C. Green	21	21	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	-0.02	-4	9	-13	22.8	17.7	5.10	19.8	15.6	4.14
Eddie House	12	11	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.01	-6	11	-17	23.7	18.2	5.45	14.9	17.0	-2.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.68,0.71,0.78,0.76,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.75,0.81,0.79,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.68,0.71,0.66,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.7,0.74,0.53,0.58,0.49,0.64,0.59,0.73,0.69,0.63,0.9,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 92, DET 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.77,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.66,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.47,0.53,0.67,0.69,0.78,0.84,0.98,1	93.7%
SAS 88, MEM 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.78,0.76,0.8,0.77,0.74,0.72,0.77,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.7,0.81,0.81,0.85,0.8,0.72,0.8,0.8,0.85,0.7,0.84,0.82,0.67,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.79,0.9,0.85,1	92.5%
CHI 92, IND 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.73,0.72,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.73,0.65,0.68,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.71,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.71,0.68,0.53,0.59,0.72,0.62,0.85,0.84,0.83,1	92.4%