NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	88		Excitement	6.8 [474]		MVP	Marc Gasol (MEM): +18.2%
Memphis Grizzlies	91		Comeback	1.1 [855]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -21.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0,0.06,0.06,0.08	0.05	0.04	0.01	12	61%	0.16	3	-0.08	14	86%	0.04
George Hill	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	10	55%	0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.04	0.00	11	46%	0.04	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	7	57%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Richard Jefferson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	4	40%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Gary Neal	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	9	22%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.13	-0.07	0.01	14	44%	-0.01	6	-0.20	8	75%	-0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marc Gasol	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.06	0.11	-0.01	13	57%	0.21	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.02
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.06	-0.00	7	60%	0.11	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.05,0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.06	-0.02	21	48%	0.14	2	-0.06	10	80%	-0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	7	64%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	0.01	12	44%	0.03	1	-0.02	8	75%	0.02
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	8	56%	0.12	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sam Young	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	6	31%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.6	2.8	33.1	19.4	30.5	3.3	38.6	156.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +43.0%

MEM +1.0%

SAS -4.5%

MEM +4.9%

MEM +5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MEM	NBA	SAS	MEM	NBA
this game	14.3	16.8	15.5	95.7	97.8	105.7
season	15.5	15.5		109.3	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.2		103.7	103.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.5	13.0	12.7	15.8	14.3
MEM	16.2	15.8	16.1	19.4	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeJuan Blair	20	21	0.05	-0.55	0.61	0.02	1	-4	5	12.5	14.8	-2.28	14.2	17.5	-3.35
Antonio McDyess	56	55	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.23	5	-8	13	14.5	14.0	0.51	16.9	16.6	0.35
Gary Neal	29	30	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.10	-8	5	-13	17.0	13.1	3.84	14.8	17.7	-2.98
George Hill	52	52	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-1	-1	15.1	13.3	1.79	15.8	18.1	-2.30
Manu Ginobili	67	68	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.38	6	-9	15	13.8	15.8	-2.01	17.4	15.1	2.28
Tim Duncan	68	69	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.37	-2	-1	-1	14.7	13.4	1.30	17.5	14.7	2.86
Richard Jefferson	70	70	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.47	0	-3	3	13.8	16.0	-2.25	17.3	15.1	2.26
Matt Bonner	40	41	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.24	-10	7	-17	14.4	14.3	0.07	16.7	16.9	-0.18
Tony Parker	58	59	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.39	-5	2	-7	13.6	15.6	-1.98	17.3	15.8	1.52

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shane Battier	51	51	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.33	11	-8	19	16.5	17.1	-0.65	14.6	14.0	0.52
Marc Gasol	78	76	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.35	8	-5	13	16.7	17.1	-0.34	14.5	13.4	1.09
O.J. Mayo	55	53	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.30	8	-5	13	16.6	17.0	-0.36	15.3	13.0	2.37
Mike Conley	77	77	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.42	-1	4	-5	17.3	14.4	2.91	14.4	13.9	0.56
Zach Randolph	78	78	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.42	-1	4	-5	17.1	15.0	2.13	14.2	14.9	-0.61
Greivis Vasquez	16	15	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.01	4	-1	5	14.4	17.3	-2.91	13.9	14.4	-0.56
Sam Young	31	31	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.04	0	3	-3	16.8	16.8	-0.02	13.5	14.7	-1.19
Darrell Arthur	30	30	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.05	-1	4	-5	16.0	17.1	-1.11	14.1	14.5	-0.35
Tony Allen	49	49	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.15	-13	16	-29	17.3	16.2	1.02	13.5	15.3	-1.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.78,0.76,0.8,0.77,0.74,0.72,0.77,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.7,0.81,0.81,0.85,0.8,0.72,0.8,0.8,0.85,0.7,0.84,0.82,0.67,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.79,0.9,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 96, UTA 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.66,0.72,0.78,0.83,0.87,0.86,0.83,0.82,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.84,0.82,0.79,0.88,0.82,0.83,0.76,0.82,0.87,0.82,0.8,0.83,0.79,0.81,0.82,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.73,0.69,0.84,0.95,0.95,1	93.3%
UTA 98, CHI 103	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.72,0.72,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.74,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.74,0.86,0.85,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.72,0.77,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.75,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.65,0.72,0.86,0.89,0.89,0.96,1	93.2%
PHI 82, IND 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.87,0.84,0.89,0.86,0.89,0.81,0.85,0.8,0.77,0.81,0.8,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.74,0.82,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.76,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.95,0.99,1	92.7%