NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	98		Excitement	8.6 [132]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIL): +35.9%
Milwaukee Bucks	102		Comeback	1.9 [649]		LVP	David Robinson (SAS): -17.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Porter	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.19,0.19	0.02	0.17	0.00	8	65%	0.26	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.11	0.00	0.02	8	100%	0.18	3	-0.09	1	0%	-0.02
Derek Anderson	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05	0.08	-0.03	0.00	20	61%	0.12	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Derrick Dial	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ira Newble	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Tim Duncan	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.14,-0.13,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.18,-0.16,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.12	0.02	-0.02	26	41%	-0.02	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
David Robinson	-0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.17	-0.07	-0.12	-0.02	15	42%	-0.03	1	-0.14	6	83%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36	0.36	0.20	0.16	0.00	13	88%	0.40	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.23,0.19,0.17	0.17	0.06	0.11	0.00	14	63%	0.26	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Glenn Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.17	0.17	0.00	0.16	-0.00	19	57%	0.25	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Ervin Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	17	56%	0.09	3	-0.10	5	40%	-0.04
Scott Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	10	35%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	3	67%	0.00	3	-0.09	3	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	1.7	23.1	15.4	22.0	1.8	37.4	123.7
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +45.2%

SAS -23.1%

MIL +9.9%

MIL +9.7%

MIL +8.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIL	NBA	SAS	MIL	NBA
this game	18.0	13.8	15.5	107.7	113.3	100.9
season	15.9	14.9		103.4	105.9
opponent	15.8	15.5		102.3	96.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	19.2	20.5	17.8	14.7	18.0
MIL	12.1	12.3	13.5	17.4	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio Daniels	77	77	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.26	7	-11	18	17.3	21.9	-4.62	13.8	13.8	0.01
Avery Johnson	35	36	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.02	-3	-1	-2	19.6	17.1	2.52	13.4	14.0	-0.56
Derrick Dial	8	7	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.07	-8	4	-12	25.0	17.3	7.65	12.6	13.9	-1.31
Derek Anderson	79	77	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.31	5	-9	14	17.8	19.6	-1.80	13.5	15.2	-1.70
David Robinson	61	62	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.38	5	-9	14	17.4	19.2	-1.81	14.1	13.1	1.03
Danny Ferry	17	16	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.12	-6	2	-8	20.6	17.4	3.16	13.7	13.8	-0.11
Tim Duncan	82	80	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.43	2	-6	8	17.7	20.9	-3.18	13.8	13.5	0.31
Samaki Walker	24	25	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.07	-13	9	-22	20.1	17.3	2.80	13.8	13.8	0.09
Terry Porter	71	70	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.44	-8	4	-12	17.3	20.6	-3.30	14.0	12.9	1.06

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ervin Johnson	61	59	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.38	15	-11	26	14.6	12.1	2.47	18.9	16.3	2.64
Tim Thomas	52	52	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.33	14	-10	24	14.6	12.7	1.85	18.3	17.6	0.76
Sam Cassell	73	73	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.38	4	0	4	13.8	13.7	0.09	17.8	19.1	-1.29
Lindsey Hunter	39	40	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.02	10	-6	16	13.4	14.0	-0.60	18.4	17.7	0.76
Ray Allen	74	75	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.35	-4	8	-12	13.8	13.9	-0.12	17.6	20.0	-2.40
Glenn Robinson	76	77	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.23	-2	6	-8	13.4	15.7	-2.29	18.2	16.8	1.46
Jason Caffey	47	49	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.20	-7	11	-18	13.5	14.1	-0.60	17.4	18.8	-1.37
Scott Williams	28	30	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.06	-10	14	-24	12.5	14.3	-1.80	17.2	18.4	-1.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.47,0.53,0.44,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.64,0.75,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.43,0.53,0.52,0.71,0.7,0.76,0.72,0.61,0.55,0.78,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 101, MEM 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.44,0.53,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.43,0.48,0.63,0.59,0.76,0.77,0.69,0.55,0.77,0.92,1	91.7%
DEN 94, POR 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.52,0.54,0.64,0.7,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.77,0.53,0.64,0.86,0.99,1	91.2%
LAL 101, BOS 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.43,0.44,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.52,0.61,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.58,0.64,0.8,0.78,0.55,0.63,0.86,0.92,1	91.0%