NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	102		Excitement	7.8 [260]		MVP	Jason Terry (ATL): +18.5%
Atlanta Hawks	98		Comeback	14.0 [103]		LVP	Lorenzen Wright (ATL): -25.6%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lindsey Hunter	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.04	0.08	-0.01	12	64%	0.18	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Ray Allen	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12	-0.04	0.15	-0.01	15	53%	0.22	3	-0.11	6	83%	0.06
Glenn Robinson	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04	-0.05	0.05	-0.04	16	47%	0.09	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.00
Ervin Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Pope	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	12	42%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	1	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Sam Cassell	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	0.03	-0.09	0.02	18	61%	0.06	3	-0.15	5	100%	0.02
Tim Thomas	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	8	25%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.28,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.19	0.19	0.13	0.04	-0.01	22	66%	0.24	2	-0.05	9	89%	0.03
Cal Bowdler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Chris Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dion Glover	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	7	43%	-0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	5	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.00	-0.10	0.03	15	63%	-0.02	4	-0.10	5	40%	-0.14
Brevin Knight	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	10	10%	-0.21	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12,-0.26	-0.26	-0.04	-0.21	0.01	21	47%	-0.09	2	-0.17	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.4	27.8	15.7	22.6	2.3	36.4	129.9
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +45.7%

MIL +11.0%

ATL -7.0%

MIL +1.7%

ATL -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	ATL	NBA	MIL	ATL	NBA
this game	13.8	15.9	15.5	106.2	100.0	100.9
season	14.9	15.4		105.9	96.0
opponent	15.1	15.8		101.6	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.9	13.0	15.5	11.6	13.8
ATL	14.5	13.6	15.8	20.2	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ervin Johnson	70	72	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.46	9	-5	14	14.1	12.7	1.41	15.1	18.0	-2.90
Ray Allen	82	82	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.44	7	-3	10	13.7	14.1	-0.36	16.0	15.2	0.86
Sam Cassell	71	75	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.51	2	2	0	13.7	13.8	-0.11	16.3	14.7	1.64
Glenn Robinson	71	73	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.51	1	3	-2	13.6	14.2	-0.59	16.0	15.6	0.47
Scott Williams	58	56	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.51	-4	8	-12	14.3	12.9	1.43	17.6	13.7	3.88
Jason Caffey	28	29	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.25	7	-3	10	12.6	14.2	-1.58	17.2	15.4	1.84
Tim Thomas	44	45	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.19	4	0	4	13.7	13.8	-0.15	14.7	16.9	-2.21
Mark Pope	9	9	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.09	-7	11	-18	15.0	13.6	1.37	16.6	15.8	0.71
Lindsey Hunter	47	49	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.17	1	3	-2	13.4	14.1	-0.78	14.3	17.5	-3.12

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dion Glover	54	51	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.06	3	-7	10	14.4	17.7	-3.26	14.1	13.4	0.64
DerMarr Johnson	18	15	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-4	4	15.7	16.0	-0.30	12.0	14.1	-2.09
Cal Bowdler	15	13	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.04	-4	0	-4	16.8	15.7	1.05	15.2	13.5	1.70
Alan Henderson	16	16	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.05	-7	3	-10	13.2	16.4	-3.18	13.2	13.9	-0.61
Dikembe Mutombo	77	78	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.37	6	-10	16	16.3	14.5	1.76	14.4	11.0	3.40
Jason Terry	94	93	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.41	0	-4	4	15.8	18.7	-2.96	14.1	4.0	10.08
Brevin Knight	91	88	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.41	-3	-1	-2	16.2	11.7	4.52	13.9	12.7	1.10
Lorenzen Wright	85	84	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.45	-4	0	-4	16.4	13.0	3.35	13.2	17.7	-4.56
Chris Crawford	40	42	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.44	-11	7	-18	16.6	15.4	1.17	12.8	14.5	-1.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.65,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.73,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.66,0.79,0.67,0.58,0.7,0.88,0.93,0.93,0.72,0.68,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 80, DET 78	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.7,0.68,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.79,0.77,0.77,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.78,0.42,0	91.8%
UTA 90, ATL 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.79,0.74,0.84,0.79,0.71,0.63,0.69,0.59,0.72,0.75,0.66,0.67,0.29,0	90.9%
NYK 100, MIN 98	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.59,0.73,0.71,0.73,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.81,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.85,0.83,0.89,0.79,0.68,0.58,0	90.9%