NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	108		Excitement	6.5 [481]		MVP	Scott Williams (MIL): +6.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	103		Comeback	2.1 [146]		LVP	Ray Allen (MIL): -19.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mikki Moore	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	5	67%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Dana Barros	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	6	71%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
John Wallace	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	8	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Jerome Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	7	61%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Joe Smith	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	10	54%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Michael Curry	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	6	57%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Chucky Atkins	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	13	41%	-0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	4	42%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.02
Mateen Cleaves	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08	-0.13	0.03	-0.02	20	53%	0.07	6	-0.15	20	70%	0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Scott Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	5	83%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rafer Alston	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.03	0.02	25	60%	0.11	4	-0.12	7	86%	-0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	0.03	2	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Pope	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	3	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.04	0.02	10	43%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.04	0.04	9	59%	-0.02	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	1	25%	-0.03	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.09	-0.03	13	52%	-0.02	6	-0.13	3	33%	-0.02
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.12	-0.06	0.02	15	45%	-0.08	4	-0.11	8	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	1.8	31.4	15.5	30.3	1.7	40.3	143.6
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +26.5%

DET +11.8%

MIL -4.8%

DET +15.3%

DET +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIL	NBA	DET	MIL	NBA
this game	15.8	12.9	15.5	106.9	104.0	100.9
season	14.3	14.9		97.9	105.9
opponent	15.8	15.4		102.3	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.6	15.0	13.8	17.2	15.8
MIL	12.4	13.8	13.4	12.1	12.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Wallace	77	73	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.24	13	-8	21	16.0	15.2	0.80	12.5	14.3	-1.79
Jerome Williams	46	47	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.27	7	-2	9	15.5	16.1	-0.51	13.1	12.8	0.26
John Wallace	44	41	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.23	7	-2	9	13.9	17.3	-3.47	13.0	12.9	0.17
Dana Barros	38	39	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.20	6	-1	7	14.1	16.9	-2.84	13.4	12.6	0.80
Jerry Stackhouse	87	85	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.33	-2	7	-9	15.9	15.4	0.54	12.4	16.1	-3.72
Mateen Cleaves	15	15	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.06	6	-1	7	14.8	16.0	-1.20	15.9	12.4	3.44
Chucky Atkins	70	68	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.29	-6	11	-17	16.5	14.2	2.35	12.5	14.0	-1.48
Mikki Moore	22	22	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.04	2	3	-1	14.5	16.2	-1.69	15.6	12.2	3.45
Michael Curry	53	53	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	4	-3	17.0	14.5	2.52	12.8	13.2	-0.38
Joe Smith	54	53	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	0.07	-9	14	-23	17.0	14.4	2.57	12.8	13.2	-0.38

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Pope	35	37	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.12	8	-13	21	12.7	13.1	-0.36	16.1	15.7	0.37
Rafer Alston	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.03	1	-6	7	12.0	13.0	-0.96	7.0	15.9	-8.91
Jason Caffey	20	21	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.01	0	-5	5	12.6	13.0	-0.44	14.3	16.2	-1.88
Scott Williams	44	44	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.09	1	-6	7	13.2	12.8	0.42	17.4	14.6	2.73
Sam Cassell	81	83	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.38	3	-8	11	12.4	15.2	-2.78	16.0	14.9	1.14
Lindsey Hunter	45	46	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.27	-2	-3	1	13.4	12.6	0.79	14.3	17.1	-2.83
Ray Allen	80	80	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.20	-7	2	-9	13.1	12.5	0.59	16.3	14.0	2.24
Ervin Johnson	50	52	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.31	-5	0	-5	12.9	13.0	-0.14	14.3	17.4	-3.08
Glenn Robinson	85	87	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.23	-9	4	-13	12.9	13.5	-0.64	15.8	15.7	0.12
Tim Thomas	58	58	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.23	-12	7	-19	13.1	12.7	0.46	16.0	15.6	0.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.59,0.65,0.52,0.44,0.4,0.3,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.14,0.04,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 123, PHX 113	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.49,0.41,0.51,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.09,0.17,0.15,0.06,0.01,0.03,0.14,0.04,0,0,0	93.9%
UTA 113, DAL 104	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.39,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.4,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.19,0.08,0.09,0.04,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0	93.3%
SAS 105, LAC 97	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.48,0.48,0.64,0.65,0.71,0.78,0.63,0.48,0.48,0.34,0.23,0.18,0.17,0.09,0.21,0.15,0.1,0.04,0.01,0,0,0	93.1%