NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	123		Excitement	6.3 [595]		MVP	Will Barton (DEN): +32.2%
Phoenix Suns	113		Comeback	2.4 [751]		LVP	Josh Gray (PHX): -11.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Barton	0.32	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.07,0.13,0.16,0.24,0.24,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.17	0.15	-0.00	14	86%	0.40	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Wilson Chandler	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.24	0.06	0.06	15	84%	0.23	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Nikola Jokic	0.07	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	-0.01	12	60%	0.10	2	-0.03	11	91%	0.03
Darrell Arthur	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	3	87%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Devin Harris	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	7	56%	0.05	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Torrey Craig	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	4	40%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Malik Beasley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	-0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.00	0.05	13	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.06	-0.02	9	57%	0.04	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.02
Trey Lyles	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	11	27%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
TJ Warren	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.20	0.01	0.06	17	72%	0.15	1	-0.01	9	56%	-0.05
Dragan Bender	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.12	-0.02	0.03	15	72%	0.12	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Davon Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	-0.00	-0.01	13	66%	0.16	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.01
Josh Jackson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.00	-0.02	19	49%	0.06	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.07
Alex Len	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Daniels	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	9	33%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Marquese Chriss	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	3	62%	0.03	5	-0.13	2	0%	-0.03
Josh Gray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	4	25%	-0.07	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	1.7	28.2	14.6	26.2	2.4	29.2	129.5
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +11.2%

DEN +24.6%

DEN +6.8%

DEN +8.5%

PHX -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	PHX	NBA	DEN	PHX	NBA
this game	15.6	13.2	14.7	121.8	114.1	107.5
season	14.7	14.2		111.2	102.6
opponent	14.3	14.7		111.8	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.1	13.5	15.7	17.3	15.6
PHX	13.9	12.2	15.0	12.0	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Harris	47	44	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.14	17	-7	24	14.7	16.3	-1.55	13.5	13.0	0.50
Wilson Chandler	81	79	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.22	10	0	10	16.0	13.5	2.50	13.8	10.8	3.04
Will Barton	90	90	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.10	12	-2	14	15.4	16.7	-1.32	13.3	12.9	0.37
Trey Lyles	46	45	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.09	12	-2	14	14.7	16.3	-1.66	13.3	13.2	0.08
Gary Harris	72	71	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.13	6	4	2	16.2	13.8	2.42	13.3	13.1	0.11
Torrey Craig	36	35	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.12	3	7	-4	14.9	15.9	-1.03	12.9	13.4	-0.43
Nikola Jokic	57	55	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.01	5	5	0	16.1	14.8	1.26	13.1	13.4	-0.25
Malik Beasley	4	2	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.10	-3	13	-16	14.2	15.6	-1.36	12.0	13.2	-1.25
Darrell Arthur	16	18	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.05	-4	14	-18	13.2	16.0	-2.81	11.2	13.7	-2.44
Jamal Murray	56	56	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.10	-8	18	-26	16.2	14.7	1.56	13.0	13.5	-0.55

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dragan Bender	66	68	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.16	10	-20	30	13.1	13.5	-0.35	16.2	14.2	2.08
Marquese Chriss	38	37	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.03	-1	-9	8	10.8	14.7	-3.91	15.8	15.4	0.45
Alex Len	26	24	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.07	-6	-4	-2	13.1	13.3	-0.20	14.1	16.0	-1.93
TJ Warren	84	88	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.22	1	-11	12	13.2	13.3	-0.13	16.0	12.3	3.73
Troy Daniels	58	61	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.20	0	-10	10	13.9	12.2	1.71	15.2	16.1	-0.90
Josh Gray	28	28	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.04	-7	-3	-4	13.0	13.3	-0.26	13.4	16.4	-2.99
Elfrid Payton	71	73	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.17	-3	-7	4	13.3	13.0	0.26	16.4	13.4	2.99
Josh Jackson	80	80	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.17	-8	-2	-6	13.2	13.2	0.08	16.1	13.3	2.86
Jared Dudley	24	25	-0.47	-0.04	-0.43	-0.08	-13	3	-16	14.4	12.9	1.52	13.4	16.3	-2.92
Davon Reed	20	21	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.03	-23	13	-36	14.9	12.8	2.17	13.9	16.0	-2.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.49,0.41,0.51,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.09,0.17,0.15,0.06,0.01,0.03,0.14,0.04,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 108, MIL 103	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.59,0.65,0.52,0.44,0.4,0.3,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.14,0.04,0.01,0,0	93.9%
TOR 127, MIL 109	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.47,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.44,0.36,0.5,0.42,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.55,0.55,0.44,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.13,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.6%
CHA 97, DET 87	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.37,0.44,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.43,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.74,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.38,0.15,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0	93.2%