NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	74		Excitement	3.2 [1112]		MVP	Bonzi Wells (POR): +9.3%
Portland Trail Blazers	85		Comeback	1.2 [1118]		LVP	Anthony Mason (MIA): -15.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	9	71%	0.08	2	-0.04	10	80%	0.00
Eddie House	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	5	62%	0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
A.C. Green	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	46%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	0.00	0.04	9	60%	-0.00	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Dan Majerle	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	0.02	3	43%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Brian Grant	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.10	-0.01	-0.05	11	42%	-0.02	3	-0.04	4	25%	-0.01
Tim Hardaway	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.00	5	33%	-0.04	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Mason	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.14	-0.01	0.01	9	20%	-0.11	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.02	0.02	13	73%	0.13	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Shawn Kemp	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.02	9	44%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	7	56%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	13	56%	0.03	3	-0.04	6	100%	0.02
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	11	43%	-0.01	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.02
Greg Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.03	2	17%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Arvydas Sabonis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	7	29%	-0.05	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.20	-0.00	-0.08	12	32%	-0.04	7	-0.09	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	2.7	28.0	19.8	26.2	2.7	32.0	137.0
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +22.7%

POR +3.0%

POR +17.5%

POR +3.9%

POR +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	POR	NBA	MIA	POR	NBA
this game	14.4	16.7	15.5	80.4	91.4	100.9
season	16.3	15.8		98.4	103.9
opponent	15.8	16.1		100.3	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.2	13.6	15.8	12.8	14.4
POR	16.1	18.5	14.2	18.3	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie House	20	22	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.13	3	-14	17	12.3	15.0	-2.66	18.4	16.2	2.18
Anthony Carter	55	56	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.31	8	-19	27	13.4	15.8	-2.35	17.4	15.8	1.64
A.C. Green	31	33	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.23	5	-16	21	13.8	14.7	-0.87	16.8	16.7	0.07
Dan Majerle	27	26	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	-9	7	16.7	13.4	3.24	15.7	17.1	-1.46
Duane Causwell	32	31	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.07	-7	-4	-3	15.0	14.0	1.00	17.1	16.6	0.48
Brian Grant	74	75	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.05	-10	-1	-9	14.9	12.1	2.82	17.0	15.5	1.54
Tim Hardaway	47	47	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.01	-12	1	-13	14.3	14.4	-0.13	16.7	16.8	-0.12
Eddie Jones	72	72	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.12	-8	-3	-5	14.7	13.3	1.32	16.4	17.8	-1.32
Bruce Bowen	40	41	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.04	-15	4	-19	13.4	15.1	-1.73	16.5	16.9	-0.37
Anthony Mason	62	62	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.05	-17	6	-23	14.5	14.1	0.47	16.0	18.3	-2.27

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damon Stoudamire	72	72	0.48	0.02	0.47	-0.04	18	-7	25	16.5	17.6	-1.13	14.3	14.5	-0.15
Stacey Augmon	56	55	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.05	14	-3	17	16.3	17.4	-1.10	15.2	13.1	2.08
Arvydas Sabonis	50	51	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.16	21	-10	31	15.4	18.3	-2.82	14.7	14.0	0.73
Bonzi Wells	73	74	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.01	16	-5	21	16.5	17.6	-1.09	14.1	15.4	-1.25
Rasheed Wallace	58	61	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.12	19	-8	27	16.8	16.6	0.18	14.5	14.1	0.43
Shawn Kemp	38	36	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.31	-8	19	-27	16.3	17.1	-0.81	14.3	14.4	-0.17
Dale Davis	41	38	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.30	-8	19	-27	18.4	15.4	2.95	14.2	14.5	-0.29
Steven Smith	56	53	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.34	-10	21	-31	17.7	15.3	2.40	13.6	15.5	-1.92
Greg Anthony	21	20	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.22	-7	18	-25	17.6	16.5	1.13	14.5	14.3	0.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.83,0.84,0.78,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 85, SAS 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.72,0.76,0.8,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.8,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.77,0.87,0.89,0.86,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1	96.6%
MIL 80, SEA 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.78,0.83,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.82,0.81,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.82,0.81,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%
PHX 113, TOR 126	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.71,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.78,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.85,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.77,0.82,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.85,0.94,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.94,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%