NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	116		Excitement	4.6 [870]		MVP	Jason Williams (SAC): +13.2%
Dallas Mavericks	105		Comeback	1.5 [484]		LVP	Michael Finley (DAL): -12.6%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Williams	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.02	-0.02	13	68%	0.15	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Doug Christie	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.03	-0.04	9	67%	0.13	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Bobby Jackson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	3	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.02	7	78%	0.04	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Jon Barry	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scot Pollard	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	4	25%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.07	14	63%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Chris Webber	-0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.02	0.04	29	57%	0.06	5	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Howard Eisley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	-0.00	-0.00	13	77%	0.15	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.02	7	65%	0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Loy Vaught	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.07	23	56%	0.01	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Trent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	6	50%	-0.02	2	-0.07	6	50%	-0.01
Michael Finley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.02	25	44%	-0.05	4	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	1.8	30.3	16.3	21.4	2.5	30.5	125.3
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +41.8%

SAC +0.7%

DAL -3.7%

SAC +6.7%

SAC +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DAL	NBA	SAC	DAL	NBA
this game	13.5	14.7	15.5	113.7	102.9	100.9
season	14.4	15.2		103.1	104.6
opponent	15.3	15.5		101.2	97.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	11.4	12.2	14.8	16.0	13.5
DAL	14.3	15.5	16.5	12.8	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Webber	84	84	0.58	-0.08	0.66	-0.01	20	-9	29	12.6	17.7	-5.07	15.2	12.7	2.52
Doug Christie	93	92	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.05	16	-5	21	13.2	17.0	-3.85	14.8	14.2	0.60
Jason Williams	84	83	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.07	10	1	9	13.9	11.6	2.28	14.5	15.8	-1.35
Vlade Divac	79	80	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.21	5	6	-1	14.4	10.5	3.83	14.4	16.1	-1.72
Peja Stojakovic	88	89	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.16	6	5	1	13.9	10.6	3.30	14.5	16.3	-1.79
Hedo Turkoglu	17	16	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.02	5	6	-1	11.8	13.8	-2.07	16.2	14.5	1.78
Bobby Jackson	23	23	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.08	2	9	-7	11.1	14.2	-3.05	14.6	14.8	-0.18
Scot Pollard	36	36	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.18	-4	15	-19	14.2	13.1	1.17	15.2	14.5	0.69
Jon Barry	6	7	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.13	-5	16	-21	17.0	13.3	3.73	13.4	14.8	-1.41

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Loy Vaught	20	19	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.10	6	-17	23	11.3	15.6	-4.29	16.4	12.8	3.60
Courtney Alexander	14	13	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.04	-3	-8	5	17.6	14.3	3.36	11.3	13.8	-2.50
Hubert Davis	46	47	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.00	-8	-3	-5	14.7	14.8	-0.05	12.8	14.1	-1.30
Christian Laettner	51	51	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.11	-4	-7	3	15.9	13.6	2.31	14.4	12.6	1.73
Shawn Bradley	63	64	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.22	-1	-10	9	13.8	16.2	-2.36	14.8	11.3	3.47
Gary Trent	21	21	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.10	-15	4	-19	17.3	14.1	3.20	9.0	14.6	-5.59
Howard Eisley	96	96	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.22	-6	-5	-1	14.5	18.7	-4.17	13.5	14.0	-0.54
Dirk Nowitzki	97	97	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.12	-13	2	-15	14.7	15.2	-0.48	13.2	18.4	-5.16
Michael Finley	102	102	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.18	-11	0	-11	14.7	0.0	14.75	13.5	0.0	13.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.45,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.29,0.26,0.24,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.23,0.25,0.24,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.14,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 120, POR 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.46,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.2,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.04,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%
PHI 108, SEA 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.38,0.3,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.17,0.22,0.25,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.18,0.27,0.24,0.18,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0	95.1%
CHI 113, BKN 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.25,0.2,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.11,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.9%