NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	107		Excitement	7.7 [277]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +41.2%
Minnesota Timberwolves	102		Comeback	10.9 [46]		LVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): -42.7%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0.41	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.28,0.4,0.41	0.18	0.23	0.00	22	75%	0.49	3	-0.08	12	92%	0.07
Randy Brown	0.09	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	6	86%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.03
Mark Blount	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.06	-0.00	6	67%	0.10	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Eric Williams	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.05	0.00	2	70%	0.07	0	0.00	6	67%	0.01
Milt Palacio	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	75%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Walter McCarty	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Moiso	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Vitaly Potapenko	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	6	29%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Bryant Stith	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	7	25%	-0.09	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Antoine Walker	-0.43	0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.26,-0.21,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.24,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.43	-0.30	-0.17	-0.05	26	32%	-0.30	5	-0.13	11	64%	-0.03

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.04	-0.01	6	89%	0.15	2	-0.02	6	83%	0.00
Todd Day	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	67%	0.06	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	71%	0.06	1	-0.05	11	82%	0.00
William Avery	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Reggie Slater	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	0.04	7	56%	-0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.11	-0.16	0.02	-0.03	15	27%	-0.06	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.07,0.07,-0.04,-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-0.10	0.00	19	48%	-0.13	2	-0.04	10	70%	-0.01
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.03	-0.14	0.01	10	62%	-0.09	4	-0.08	4	75%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.7	2.3	31.6	15.5	26.4	1.7	40.3	147.5
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +30.5%

BOS +5.0%

BOS +18.0%

BOS +1.8%

MIN -5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIN	NBA	BOS	MIN	NBA
this game	15.3	14.1	15.5	108.1	105.2	100.9
season	15.1	15.0		99.7	102.9
opponent	15.9	15.4		101.7	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.2	13.3	20.3	15.3	15.3
MIN	12.5	14.9	14.7	14.7	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Randy Brown	69	70	0.91	-0.41	1.32	0.53	13	-8	21	15.0	15.9	-0.88	14.8	12.3	2.48
Mark Blount	65	64	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.44	12	-7	19	15.8	14.2	1.64	14.9	12.5	2.39
Eric Williams	45	44	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.53	9	-4	13	14.7	15.7	-1.03	14.2	14.0	0.19
Paul Pierce	87	85	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.25	12	-7	19	14.9	18.2	-3.32	14.4	12.2	2.14
Antoine Walker	90	88	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.27	9	-4	13	14.4	23.4	-9.01	14.0	15.3	-1.33
Walter McCarty	1	1	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.03	0	5	-5	15.0	15.3	-0.26	23.0	14.0	8.97
Jerome Moiso	6	6	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.01	-1	6	-7	10.2	15.6	-5.41	13.3	14.2	-0.84
Vitaly Potapenko	36	35	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	-0.04	-10	15	-25	17.1	14.2	2.96	12.8	14.9	-2.03
Bryant Stith	66	65	-0.39	0.89	-1.27	-0.06	-11	16	-27	16.2	13.4	2.74	13.7	15.0	-1.26
Milt Palacio	30	27	-0.41	0.91	-1.32	-0.18	-8	13	-21	15.9	15.0	0.88	12.3	14.8	-2.48

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	47	51	0.40	-0.90	1.30	0.16	8	-13	21	13.6	14.7	-1.11	14.1	16.5	-2.34
Sam Mitchell	30	31	0.27	-0.77	1.03	0.00	9	-14	23	13.3	14.5	-1.24	14.5	15.6	-1.12
Rasho Nesterovic	25	26	0.08	-0.58	0.67	0.05	1	-6	7	13.8	14.2	-0.49	12.3	16.3	-3.94
Reggie Slater	24	26	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.00	2	-7	9	12.4	14.7	-2.27	17.4	14.5	2.89
Todd Day	5	5	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.04	2	-7	9	18.4	13.9	4.51	15.0	15.3	-0.27
William Avery	12	13	-0.06	-0.45	0.39	0.03	-3	-2	-1	13.2	14.3	-1.09	11.1	15.9	-4.81
Dean Garrett	15	15	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	-1	-3	15.4	13.9	1.51	17.5	14.9	2.61
Anthony Peeler	75	73	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.41	3	-8	11	13.5	16.4	-2.90	15.8	13.7	2.17
LaPhonso Ellis	53	54	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.34	-2	-3	1	15.0	13.1	1.93	17.0	13.1	3.93
Wally Szczerbiak	54	54	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.25	-14	9	-23	13.7	14.7	-1.03	14.2	16.5	-2.31
Kevin Garnett	82	82	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.44	-8	3	-11	14.6	11.3	3.38	15.5	14.0	1.51
Terrell Brandon	63	65	-1.07	0.57	-1.64	-0.51	-19	14	-33	15.0	12.4	2.64	15.6	14.6	0.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.37,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.7,0.79,0.85,0.8,0.85,0.83,0.75,0.71,0.57,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 119, DAL 112	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.66,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.57,0.71,0.68,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.9,0.72,0.57,0.17,0	91.9%
CLE 92, DET 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.67,0.81,0.71,0.76,0.6,0.69,0.72,0.45,0.02,0	90.1%
MIN 98, CLE 97	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.7,0.64,0.65,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.31,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.35,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.62,0.74,0.75,0.83,0.96,0.94,0.85,0.9,0.75,0.79,0.45,0.58,0	89.9%