NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	113		Excitement	3.4 [1063]		MVP	Raef LaFrentz (DEN): +15.3%
Denver Nuggets	120		Comeback	1.0 [852]		LVP	Glenn Robinson (MIL): -12.6%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.14	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.06	-0.00	18	58%	0.14	0	0.00	9	100%	0.07
Mark Pope	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Williams	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.09	0.00	0.10	14	67%	0.01	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.01
Rafer Alston	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	5	45%	0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	5	50%	-0.02	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Caffey	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	8	41%	-0.02	2	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Tim Thomas	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.11	-0.00	-0.05	13	29%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.05	-0.02	24	52%	-0.07	5	-0.05	12	75%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.19	0.00	0.03	12	84%	0.15	0	0.00	7	71%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	8	59%	0.04	1	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.03	-0.03	20	59%	0.09	5	-0.07	19	79%	0.01
Robert Pack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	100%	0.02	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	-0.02	-0.05	10	54%	0.05	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	7	62%	0.01	2	-0.02	15	93%	0.02
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	3	37%	-0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	7	48%	-0.01	2	-0.02	7	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	2.4	30.5	15.7	31.2	2.3	42.5	148.5
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +38.3%

DEN +7.8%

DEN +10.0%

MIL -8.5%

DEN +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DEN	NBA	MIL	DEN	NBA
this game	14.7	12.9	15.5	107.6	115.4	100.9
season	14.9	15.2		105.9	101.4
opponent	15.2	15.8		104.1	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.1	12.8	15.3	13.6	14.7
DEN	11.0	12.0	13.5	15.2	12.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scott Williams	31	29	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-5	3	14.2	14.9	-0.73	10.9	13.6	-2.70
Jerome Kersey	53	52	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.35	8	-15	23	14.4	15.0	-0.57	12.5	13.2	-0.67
Lindsey Hunter	74	73	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.53	13	-20	33	14.1	16.1	-2.02	12.8	13.1	-0.27
Ervin Johnson	31	34	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	-3	-1	14.5	14.8	-0.27	14.9	11.9	3.03
Mark Pope	16	15	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.08	-10	3	-13	16.2	14.4	1.78	11.9	13.0	-1.18
Jason Caffey	48	49	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.07	-6	-1	-5	14.6	14.7	-0.13	13.7	12.2	1.47
Tim Thomas	55	52	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.23	-1	-6	5	15.0	14.3	0.76	11.7	14.0	-2.25
Rafer Alston	37	36	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.12	-15	8	-23	16.5	13.7	2.75	13.1	12.8	0.32
Ray Allen	93	91	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.29	-4	-3	-1	14.8	14.0	0.76	13.5	8.5	4.96
Glenn Robinson	87	89	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.11	-14	7	-21	14.3	16.6	-2.27	12.7	14.1	-1.39

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio McDyess	89	90	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.14	14	-7	21	13.2	10.7	2.58	15.1	11.9	3.20
James Posey	73	73	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.22	9	-2	11	13.5	11.5	2.03	14.9	14.2	0.66
Nick Van Exel	88	87	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.26	5	2	3	13.0	12.4	0.52	14.6	14.9	-0.26
Raef LaFrentz	77	77	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.18	7	0	7	13.3	11.6	1.73	14.1	16.2	-2.10
Voshon Lenard	71	72	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.26	3	4	-1	13.7	11.0	2.75	14.8	14.5	0.32
Robert Pack	26	28	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.06	2	5	-3	11.3	13.4	-2.14	14.9	14.6	0.30
George McCloud	57	58	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.17	-2	9	-11	11.9	14.1	-2.17	14.2	15.3	-1.09
Keon Clark	39	40	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.18	-3	10	-13	10.7	14.2	-3.41	14.8	14.6	0.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.87,0.87,0.94,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.97,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.96,0.91,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.85,0.96,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 99, ATL 112	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.74,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.88,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.3%
MIN 92, TOR 102	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.68,0.68,0.73,0.78,0.83,0.84,0.84,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.89,0.92,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.97,1,1,1,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.2%
BOS 95, ORL 100	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.71,0.72,0.79,0.82,0.81,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.88,0.95,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.89,1,1	96.1%