NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	84		Excitement	9.7 [69]		MVP	Baron Davis (CHH): +23.8%
Charlotte Hornets	88		Comeback	3.1 [360]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -74.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Kerr	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.02	0.01	5	91%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Derek Anderson	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07	-0.03	0.10	-0.00	12	44%	0.10	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Danny Ferry	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	5	27%	-0.05	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Sean Elliott	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11	0.01	-0.12	-0.00	8	50%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Malik Rose	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	-0.27	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.24,-0.27	-0.06	-0.20	0.00	11	43%	-0.23	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Terry Porter	-0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.09	-0.19	-0.00	6	56%	-0.05	5	-0.23	4	100%	0.02
Tim Duncan	-0.75	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.68,-0.77,-0.77,-0.77,-0.77,-0.75	-0.10	-0.62	0.03	21	56%	-0.51	7	-0.24	10	40%	-0.46

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.24	0.24	0.04	0.19	-0.01	11	62%	0.26	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Hersey Hawkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	2	125%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	3	100%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.2,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	20	48%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.03
Eldridge Recasner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lee Nailon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	7	25%	-0.12	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	0.02	-0.19	0.02	19	55%	-0.09	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.25	-0.25	-0.12	-0.13	-0.01	11	37%	-0.11	4	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	21.2	2.4	28.4	15.7	23.1	2.5	32.9	1.0	17.9	145.1
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	1.7	17.2	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +62.1%

CHH +4.2%

SAS -51.2%

CHH +41.0%

SAS -6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	CHH	NBA	SAS	CHH	NBA
this game	17.1	16.2	15.5	88.4	91.7	100.9
season	15.9	15.8		103.4	99.7
opponent	15.6	15.5		97.0	96.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAS	18.8	14.3	17.0	19.5	15.5	17.1
CHH	14.0	19.1	13.0	20.5	14.5	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Kerr	27	26	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.19	6	-10	16	17.2	17.1	0.08	21.5	14.2	7.25
Sean Elliott	61	62	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.20	5	-9	14	16.7	17.9	-1.13	15.5	17.5	-2.00
David Robinson	62	61	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.16	2	-6	8	16.3	18.7	-2.36	15.5	17.3	-1.83
Antonio Daniels	46	46	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.03	-5	1	-6	17.4	16.9	0.51	13.1	19.0	-5.97
Malik Rose	38	39	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.23	-3	-1	-2	18.0	16.5	1.50	18.1	14.9	3.24
Derek Anderson	63	64	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.20	-7	3	-10	16.4	18.5	-2.07	15.0	18.6	-3.67
Danny Ferry	34	34	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.19	-9	5	-14	17.9	16.7	1.13	17.5	15.5	2.00
Terry Porter	54	56	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.40	-2	-2	0	17.7	16.4	1.29	17.7	14.1	3.60
Tim Duncan	90	92	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.37	-7	3	-10	17.3	13.8	3.51	15.8	24.7	-8.95

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Baron Davis	81	80	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.34	8	-4	12	15.2	21.2	-5.95	17.3	16.4	0.86
Jamal Mashburn	85	83	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.29	9	-5	14	15.3	22.6	-7.30	17.5	14.7	2.72
P.J. Brown	88	87	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.38	5	-1	6	15.4	24.2	-8.81	17.3	14.7	2.59
David Wesley	80	78	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.31	4	0	4	15.1	21.6	-6.46	17.4	15.9	1.44
Otis Thorpe	32	31	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.13	6	-2	8	18.5	15.0	3.48	16.2	17.6	-1.38
Elden Campbell	59	60	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.27	-3	7	-10	16.8	15.1	1.70	16.3	18.5	-2.15
Hersey Hawkins	18	19	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.06	0	4	-4	19.9	15.3	4.57	16.1	17.4	-1.28
Jamaal Magloire	13	12	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.01	0	4	-4	12.5	16.8	-4.30	21.9	16.4	5.48
Lee Nailon	11	12	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.09	-5	9	-14	22.6	15.3	7.30	14.7	17.5	-2.72
Eldridge Recasner	13	13	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	8	-12	23.5	15.0	8.43	16.2	17.3	-1.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.45,0.32,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.71,0.78,0.85,0.92,0.94,0.83,0.77,0.64,0.8,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.84,0.42,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.57,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 111, MIA 114	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.43,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.66,0.73,0.67,0.62,0.74,0.74,0.85,0.86,0.77,0.74,0.81,0.66,0.8,0.89,0.85,0.58,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.68,0.83,1	90.6%
ORL 115, DET 120	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.36,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.38,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.48,0.59,0.7,0.64,0.74,0.78,0.88,0.83,0.84,0.7,0.85,0.88,0.76,0.72,0.47,0.27,0.5,0.62,0.52,0.75,0.73,1	89.6%
SEA 103, LAL 106	0.5,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.65,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.86,0.73,0.59,0.84,0.74,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.53,0.5,0.31,0.29,0.67,0.73,1	89.6%