NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	97		Excitement	7.9 [226]		MVP	Hedo Turkoglu (SAC): +15.8%
Sacramento Kings	101		Comeback	9.8 [375]		LVP	Bruce Bowen (MIA): -19.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.02	0.02	12	72%	0.12	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Eddie House	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.06	0.00	1	150%	0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Cedric Ceballos	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.10	-0.02	-0.06	14	48%	0.06	5	-0.12	3	100%	0.02
A.C. Green	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	6	43%	-0.05	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Anthony Carter	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	6	53%	0.01	3	-0.09	3	0%	-0.12
Tim Hardaway	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,0,-0.08,-0.14	0.01	-0.15	0.01	19	57%	-0.06	3	-0.08	6	67%	-0.01
Brian Grant	-0.16	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.08,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	18	46%	-0.05	5	-0.11	5	60%	-0.06
Bruce Bowen	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.19,-0.19	-0.04	-0.15	-0.00	4	33%	-0.13	1	-0.06	1	100%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.16	0.16	0.02	0.12	-0.01	6	61%	0.16	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Scot Pollard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	6	62%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.06
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	-0.03	8	68%	0.10	3	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	9	58%	0.04	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.02
Lawrence Funderburke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.04	0.01	9	56%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	7	47%	0.01	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Chris Webber	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.21,-0.21,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.20	0.06	-0.09	26	35%	0.07	5	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.07	-0.03	9	54%	0.12	3	-0.21	6	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	1.5	31.0	15.5	24.3	2.7	33.9	131.0
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +27.4%

SAC +23.0%

MIA -2.2%

SAC +8.4%

MIA -6.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAC	NBA	MIA	SAC	NBA
this game	15.1	14.9	15.5	101.0	105.2	100.9
season	16.3	14.4		98.4	103.1
opponent	15.5	16.1		97.8	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.4	18.0	16.7	14.0	15.1
SAC	14.3	12.8	14.7	18.0	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie House	17	17	0.32	-0.82	1.14	0.03	10	-14	24	14.8	15.2	-0.46	15.9	14.6	1.25
Bruce Bowen	59	58	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.62	22	-26	48	13.7	17.5	-3.81	15.6	13.7	1.89
A.C. Green	42	42	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.22	3	-7	10	15.2	15.1	0.08	16.6	13.5	3.05
Anthony Carter	39	40	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.10	-9	5	-14	15.9	14.6	1.22	14.6	15.0	-0.39
Eddie Jones	69	70	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	-1	-2	15.5	14.3	1.13	14.4	16.1	-1.68
Cedric Ceballos	27	26	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.24	-21	17	-38	16.2	14.7	1.50	12.9	15.6	-2.70
Brian Grant	75	76	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.19	-8	4	-12	15.5	14.0	1.41	15.0	14.2	0.76
Anthony Mason	78	77	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.49	-9	5	-14	15.2	14.7	0.52	14.5	16.1	-1.56
Tim Hardaway	74	74	-0.82	0.32	-1.14	-0.67	-5	1	-6	14.9	16.0	-1.11	14.5	16.2	-1.72

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Williams	60	59	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.73	2	2	0	15.6	13.6	1.94	14.5	16.2	-1.79
Hedo Turkoglu	67	70	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.38	4	0	4	15.2	14.1	1.03	15.0	15.5	-0.43
Doug Christie	59	58	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.65	-6	10	-16	14.9	14.7	0.25	13.0	18.4	-5.38
Chris Webber	77	77	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.66	-10	14	-24	15.9	10.4	5.53	14.9	16.2	-1.33
Scot Pollard	59	60	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.14	7	-3	10	15.1	14.5	0.64	15.0	15.3	-0.26
Vlade Divac	37	36	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.24	-3	7	-10	14.5	15.1	-0.64	15.3	15.0	0.26
Lawrence Funderburke	17	17	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.30	15	-11	26	11.6	15.6	-3.97	17.8	14.6	3.25
Jon Barry	63	63	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.25	7	-3	10	13.9	16.7	-2.76	16.2	13.1	3.18
Bobby Jackson	41	40	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	-0.33	4	0	4	13.9	15.6	-1.66	17.1	13.7	3.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.26,0.24,0.26,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.17,0.18,0.22,0.25,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.3,0.25,0.34,0.46,0.34,0.24,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.58,0.36,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.46,0.32,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 96, UTA 102	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.24,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.18,0.28,0.29,0.34,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.29,0.4,0.33,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.69,0.65,0.66,0.47,0.37,0.16,0.73,1	88.2%
ORL 84, PHX 87	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.45,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.37,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.41,0.4,0.53,0.61,0.55,0.45,0.92,1	88.1%
NYK 84, GSW 86	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.28,0.23,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.25,0.23,0.28,0.33,0.41,0.35,0.32,0.48,0.38,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.46,0.66,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.57,0.42,1	87.9%